2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Friday projection
A captivating 14-plus hours of conference tournament basketball Thursday revived hopes of anxious teams on the fringes of the projected NCAA tournament field, shook up the potential top seed line and yielded thrilling games galore from coast to coast.
The best news? More drama is on tap today.
But before you settle in for another dizzying day of games impacting berths and seeding, here are some notes.
+ On the top seed line, Gonzaga and Arizona are locks. That leaves four teams — Kansas, Auburn, Baylor and Kentucky — contending for two slots. At the moment, Kansas, with its excellent non-conference strength of schedule, and Auburn, whose four losses came against Quad 1 teams, get the nod. But keep in mind Kentucky’s convincing victory against Kansas in Lawrence if the Wildcats win the SEC tournament.
+ Wyoming achieved something it had not done since 2003: beat UNLV in Las Vegas. As a result, the Mountain West Conference exhales; it will receive four bids to the NCAAs. And all four — Colorado State, Boise State and San Diego State the others — reached the semifinals of the fiercely contested MWC tournament, where every game Thursday was decided by seven or fewer points.
+ The No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament, Notre Dame, now is in the danger zone of being relegated to the First Four in Dayton after losing to tournament hopeful Virginia Tech. In the ACC, it’s a whole new world.
+ Two big-name programs, Indiana and Oklahoma, have resuscitated visions of grabbing a couple of the final at-large berths. The Sooners, who have five victories against teams ranked in the top 15, may secure a slot if they reach the Big 12 final; that would require the Sooners to beat Texas Tech in a semifinal tonight. Virginia Tech is squarely in the at-large conversation after beating the Fighting Irish; it will need to beat North Carolina in a semifinal tonight.
+ These will be especially anxious days for Michigan, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Xavier; all are done in their conference tournaments and can only watch with interest as other bubble teams —Rutgers, SMU, Memphis, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, VCU, Texas A&M and Indiana — attempt to bolster their résumés.
Teams listed with a conference are the projected league tourney winner, while asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid. Teams in bold type have earned automatic bids. And you can keep up to date on all the March Madness goings-on with our daily NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch.
No. 1 seeds
1. Gonzaga (West Coast)
2. Arizona (Pac-12)
3. Kansas (Big 12)
4. Auburn (SEC)
Buzz: Four teams remain in contention for two slots on the top seed line. Gonzaga should have locked up the top overall seed with the victory over rival Saint Mary’s in the WCC final. Arizona survived a tight game with upset-minded Stanford on Thursday, cementing its positioning as a No. 1 seed — an impressive feat in Coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season. Courtesy of Baylor’s loss to Oklahoma, Kansas slides in as a No. 1 and edges Auburn in large part because of its advantage in non-conference strength of schedule. Auburn has an excellent résumé but may need to win the SEC tournament to maintain a No. 1 seed.
No. 2 seeds
5. Baylor
6. Kentucky
7. Duke
8. Villanova (Big East)
Buzz: Baylor and Kentucky still harbor hopes of reaching the top seed line. After a loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, Baylor likely needs other contenders to falter to get there. If Kentucky beats Auburn for the SEC tournament title, it will have a compelling argument for a No. 1 seed. Duke survived an uneven performance against an inferior Syracuse team, but given the mediocrity of the ACC, it can’t rise to a No. 1 seed. Villanova coach Jay Wright is breathing a sigh of relief after edging St. John’s despite being outplayed most of the game. The Wildcats are two wins from cementing a No. 2 seed.
No. 3 seeds
9. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
10. Tennessee
11. Purdue
12. Texas Tech
Buzz: Is it possible that a conference as top-heavy as the Big Ten could wind up without a top-two seed? If so, Wisconsin’s home loss in its regular-season finale to Nebraska will be one of the reasons. But the Badgers have an opportunity to still bolster their résumé. Tennessee, a Final Four contender, may be playing for a No. 2 seed in a potential SEC semifinal matchup with Kentucky. Purdue has all the offensive ingredients to make a deep run; questions persist about its defense, which ranks 100th in the kenpom.com efficiency ratings. Is Texas Tech as formidable as it appeared in dismantling Iowa State on Thursday? We’ll find out in the next two days.
No. 4 seeds
13. UCLA
14. Arkansas
15. Illinois
16. Providence
Buzz: Do you get the feeling UCLA, which returned much of its firepower from last season’s Final Four team, has been laying in the weeds all season? Its peak may be a No. 3 seed. Arkansas may be the most formidable team in this bunch; don’t be surprised if the Razorbacks knock off Auburn in the SEC semifinals. Providence coach Ed Cooley, underrated nationally, could be on the brink of a breakout deep NCAA tournament run, but his team was fortunate to beat Butler on Thursday. Let’s see if the Friars can finally get a win over Villanova in the Big East tournament. Illinois could get to the three line by winning the Big Ten tourney title.
No. 5 seeds
17. UConn
18. LSU
19. Houston (American)
20. Saint Mary’s
Buzz: Kelvin Sampson has deftly guided Houston through an injury-riddled season, and the Cougars remain the team to beat in the AAC tournament. After defeating Seton Hall, UConn is looking at what promises to be a compelling matchup against Villanova tonight in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden, an old-school Big East duel. This is one of Randy Bennett’s best teams at Saint Mary’s; good news is it probably won’t have to play Gonzaga again this season. LSU advanced in the SEC tournament to play Arkansas in the quarterfinals.
No. 6 seeds
21. Texas
22. Iowa
23. Alabama
24. USC
Buzz: Texas fans may have expected a little more from an outstanding coach, Chris Beard, in year one in Austin. The Longhorns dropped a seed line after a loss to TCU in the Big 12 tourney. Iowa racked up 112 points against Northwestern on Thursday. It won’t be as easy today against No. 4 seed Rutgers, whose stingy defense held the Hawkeyes to 46 in a regular-season meeting. If turnover-happy USC, which survived a sloppy game against Washington, can upset UCLA and Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament, the Trojans could possibly climb to a No. 5 seed. A turnover-plagued game by Alabama in a loss to Vanderbilt on Thursday night cemented the Tide’s status as one of the nation’s most erratic teams. Good luck predicting its fortunes in the NCAAs.
No. 7 seeds
25. Ohio State
26. Colorado State (Mountain West)
27. Boise State
28. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
Buzz: Murray State was a lock to receive an at-large bid even if it had lost in the Ohio Valley title game. There is little separation between Mountain West foes Colorado State and Boise State other than CSU’s two victories over Boise State. The MWC tournament will determine if one can climb up to a No. 6 seed. An injury-depleted Ohio State suffered a disheartening loss to Penn State on Thursday, its fourth loss in its past five games.
No. 8 seeds
29. Michigan State
30. Seton Hall
31. TCU
32. Creighton
Buzz: This is Tom Izzo’s best month of the year, but does he have the team to make one of his patented postseason runs? After beating Maryland, Michigan State gets Wisconsin today. Creighton swaps seed lines with Marquette after beating Shaka Smart’s team Thursday. No shame in Seton Hall’s loss to UConn on Thursday; the Pirates can win a game in the NCAAs. Jamie Dixon’s TCU team is unpredictable yet capable, having beaten Texas Tech, Kansas and now Texas since February 26. Horned Frogs would be seeded higher if not for a lightweight non-conference schedule. Regardless, a No. 1 seed would not want to see TCU in the second round of the NCAAs.
No. 9 seeds
33. San Diego State
34. Iowa State
35. Marquette
36. North Carolina
Buzz: San Diego State has locked up an at-large berth. Iowa State is a lock for an at-large slot despite its resounding loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament. North Carolina continues to play well, holding offensively challenged Virginia to five made field goals in the first half Thursday night. Marquette drops a seed line after the loss to Creighton in the Big East tournament.
No. 10 seeds
37. San Francisco
38. Miami
39. Memphis
40. Michigan
Buzz: San Francisco’s WCC tournament win over BYU secured the Dons and emerging coaching standout Todd Golden an at-large berth; it was playing with house money in Las Vegas on Monday in a WCC semifinal against Gonzaga. Boston College had Miami on the ropes Thursday in the ACC tourney but couldn’t knock out the Hurricanes, who locked up an NCAA tournament bid. Memphis probably is in the field now; a win over SMU in an AAC semifinal would help seeding. Credit Coach Penny Hardaway with a sterling coaching job to prevent an adversity-laden season from going totally sideways. Michigan took a step backward in surrendering a big lead in a loss to Indiana despite coach Juwan Howard’s return to the sideline. But the Wolverines have played the nation’s third-toughest schedule, including the 10th-toughest in non-conference play.
No. 11 seeds
41. Xavier
42. Davidson (Atlantic 10)
43. Loyola Chicago (Missouri Valley)
44. Wyoming
Buzz: Xavier could not stop the late-season bleeding, losing to Butler in overtime in the Big East tournament. Five Quad 1 wins are enough to keep Xavier in the field at the moment. Davidson may need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament title to reach the NCAAs. The good news is it won’t play Dayton or VCU until the final. Loyola-Chicago would have been a borderline at-large contender had it lost in the Missouri Valley title game. By claiming the automatic berth, it doesn’t have to sweat it. Wyoming beat UNLV in Las Vegas for the first time since 2003 to lock up the MWC’s fourth NCAA bid.
No. 12 seeds
45/46. Notre Dame/Rutgers
47/48. VCU/Indiana
49. North Texas* (Conference USA)
50. South Dakota State (Summit)
Buzz: Notre Dame, the second seed in the ACC Tournament, will be backing its way into the NCAAs after a loss to Virginia Tech. As the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, Rutgers is in an interesting situation. If the Scarlet Knights beat Iowa in the quarterfinals, they should lock up an at-large bid. A loss could put Rutgers on shaky ground. VCU doesn’t get enough attention; Rams have a solid résumé with a strong road record (9-2) and a 13th-ranked strength of schedule. Indiana remains alive with the ferocious comeback against Michigan. North Texas, one of the best teams in the nation on the road, is the class of Conference USA but must win the automatic berth to reach the NCAAs. South Dakota State’s offensive numbers are eye-popping; the Jackrabbits will be an entertaining team to watch in the NCAAs.
No. 13 seeds
51. Vermont* (America East)
52. Chattanooga (Southern)
53. Toledo* (MAC)
54. New Mexico State* (WAC)
Buzz: Chattanooga authored the first “One Shining Moment” of March with a contested 3-pointer in OT to beat Furman by a point in the Southern Conference championship Monday night. Vermont, one of the nation’s most experienced teams, would be a tough out as a No. 13 seed. Top-seeded Vermont hosts second-seeded UMBC in Saturday’s America East championship. No. 1 seed Toledo was fortunate to survive against eighth-seeded Central Michigan as it opened MAC tournament play Thursday. Top-seeded New Mexico State will play fourth-seeded Grand Canyon in the WAC tournament semifinals on Friday in Las Vegas.
No. 14 seeds
55. Princeton* (Ivy)
56. Delaware (Colonial)
57. Montana State* (Big Sky)
58. Colgate (Patriot)
Buzz: Delaware upset UNC-Wilmington to earn the CAA’s automatic berth. Princeton, the top seed in the Ivy, will play fourth-seeded Cornell in Boston on Saturday in the semifinals. The Big Sky’s top seed, Montana State, had no trouble with Sacramento State; Weber State will pose a much stiffer test Friday. Colgate earned its third consecutive NCAA berth by beating Navy in the Patriot League final Wednesday.
No. 15 seeds
59. Saint Peter’s* (Metro Atlantic)
60. Long Beach State* (Big West)
61. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
62. Longwood (Big South)
Buzz: Ninth-seeded Rider stunned top-seeded Iona in the MAAC tourney, meaning second-seeded Saint Peter’s now is the favorite. Georgia State earned the Sun Belt’s automatic berth, winning its 10th consecutive game Monday night. Longwood beat Winthrop to earn the Big South’s automatic bid. Top-seeded Long Beach State beat Cal State-Bakersfield on Thursday in the Big West tournament; it will play UC Santa Barbara in a semi on Friday.
No. 16 seeds
63. Wright State (Horizon)
64. Norfolk State* (MEAC)
65/66. Alcorn State* (SWAC)/Nicholls State* (Southland)
67/68. Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun)/Bryant (Northeast)
Buzz: Bellarmine won the Atlantic Sun tournament but is ineligible for the NCAAs because it still is transitioning to Division I. As a result, regular-season champion Jacksonville State earns the automatic berth. Wright State roared back from a 16-point deficit to knock off Northern Kentucky in the Horizon final. Bryant routed Wagner to win the Northeast crown, earning its first-ever NCAA tournament bid. Norfolk State, the top seed in the MEAC, beat No. 8 seeded Delaware State to advance to Friday’s semifinals against fourth-seeded Morgan State. Top-seeded Alcorn State edged No. 8 seed Prairie View 64-63 in overtime in the quarterfinals of the SWAC tournament on Wednesday and gets fifth-seeded Alabama A&M in a semifinal Friday night. Top-seeded Nicholls State will play No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in Friday’s Southland semifinals.
Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.