The ceiling and floor for every SEC football team in 2024
As we hurtle toward a college football season that will look and feel different than any other thanks to conference realignment and College Football Playoff expansion, it’s time to dive into how teams will perform against a new set of schedules with new sets of expectations.
At Andy Staples On3, national scout Cody Bellaire and I are breaking down every power conference team-by-team to determine each team’s realistic ceiling and floor. It’s an educational exercise that only makes me want August to get here even faster — because this season is going to be bananas.
We started this week with the new 16-team SEC…
Alabama
Ceiling: National title
Floor: 9-3
The biggest question for years was how big of a step back Alabama would take once Nick Saban retired. Four months and one spring practice after Saban’s retirement, the answer seems to be “not much of one.”
Kalen DeBoer took Washington to the national title game last season, and he inherits a roster capable of making it to the title game this season. The loss of safety Caleb Downs to Ohio State certainly hurt, but getting offensive tackle Kadyn Proctor back from Iowa means the post-Saba drain is basically limited to Downs.
Meanwhile, Alabama has a deep defensive line, a linebacker group led by Deontae Lawson and a secondary that plugs in former USC cornerback Domani Jackson and former Michigan safety Keon Sabb.
The path isn’t easy by any stretch, but Alabama is so loaded that even in a worst-case scenario it’s difficult to imagine the Tide not making the CFP.
Arkansas
Ceiling: 6-6
Floor: 2-10
Sam Pittman and Florida’s Billy Napier enter the season tied for the hottest seat. But Florida didn’t hire the program’s last really good head coach to call the plays. Arkansas did. Bobby Petrino could improve things enough for Pittman to stay in Fayetteville, or Petrino could get a chance to audition for the job he was fired from in 2012 as the interim if the season starts poorly.
Quarterback K.J. Jefferson is gone to UCF. His replacement is Taylen Green, a Boise State transfer who is a lighter and faster version of Jefferson. Whether Green is an upgrade over Jefferson remains to be seen.
Six conference foes on the Razorbacks’ schedule have a ceiling of CFP berth or better in this exercise, and Arkansas also must go to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State. We’ve seen things unravel quickly in the final seasons of Pittman’s two predecessors (Bret Bielema and Chad Morris). If things start to turn south early, this schedule will only exacerbate any issues.
Auburn
Ceiling: 9-3
Floor: 7-5
Hugh Freeze deciding to call the offensive plays in the same year that the NCAA will allow electronic coach-to-quarterback communication could be the paradigm shift that pushes the Tigers back toward contention even faster.
It always seemed curious that Freeze decided to give up playcalling in his first season as Auburn’s coach. It is Freeze’s superpower, and it was clear last year when Freeze decided to get more involved. But he couldn’t go all the way in. Now he can, and it should allow QB Payton Thorne to be better than he was in his first season on the Plains.
The addition of freshman receiver Cam Coleman has the program buzzing, and adding Penn State transfer KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the spring portal window gives the Tigers another pass-catcher defenses need to worry about.
How Auburn fares defensively probably depends on how quickly some of the Tigers’ young linemen develop, but Freeze clearly understood his mandate to raise the talent level in the program. Auburn might not be ready to make the CFP quite yet, but the Tigers feel ready to be competitive in the SEC again.
Florida
Ceiling: 8-4
Floor: 3-9
There is no way to sugarcoat this: Florida may have the toughest college football schedule of this century. The usual capper against Florida State is buttressed by games against Georgia, LSU, Texas and Ole Miss. The start of the season is even hairier from a psychological standpoint. Miami and UCF visit The Swamp early, and losses to either — or far worse, both — could spell doom for coach Billy Napier’s tenure.
The path forward for Napier requires improvement on defense combined with an offense that should operate smoothly with quarterback Graham Mertz entering year two in the system. Eugene Wilson III should emerge as the top receiving threat, while veteran Montrell Johnson and freshman Jaden Baugh should be a capable backfield tandem. If the defense is better and the Gators stop sending 10 players out on the field goal block team, then they might survive the season’s first half with a promising record. At that point, the measuring stick would be how competitive Florida is against a group of actual College Football Playoff contenders.
If the Gators look like they belong on the same field, Napier has a chance. If they don’t, the floor could pack a mean punch.
Georgia
Ceiling: National title
Floor: 9-3
Georgia and Ohio State have the two most sure-thing rosters in America. The Bulldogs have become such prodigious producers of talent that they can lose an excellent center (Sedrick Van Pran) to the NFL and NFL scouts somehow get more excited bout the replacement who takes over after playing behind the veteran (Jared Wilson).
Linebacker Mykel Williams is Georgia’s latest “his-stats-would-be-insane-if-he-played-anywhere-but-Georgia” defender. Carson Beck is back for a second year as the starting QB. Florida transfer Trevor Etienne joins a group of talented backs. Miami transfer Colbie Young gives Beck a big target to go along with Dominic Lovett, Rara Thomas and Dillon Bell. The Bulldogs lost tight end Brock Bowers but brought in the player whose skillset most resembles Bowers’ (Stanford transfer Benjamin Yurosek).
This is a pure reload situation, and only an abject disaster either involving a loss to Clemson or losses on the road to Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas will keep the Bulldogs out of the CFP.
Kentucky
Ceiling: 9-3
Floor: 6-6
The blessing and the curse of Mark Stoops is that prior to his hiring Kentucky fans would have been thrilled to know their team would be bowl eligible practically every season. But with the raising of the floor has come frustration that the ceiling can’t be consistently higher. This second part is what caused the revolt among Texas A&M trustees that kept Stoops from getting that job this offseason, and it’s what Big Blue Nation would like to see change.
Kentucky has one superstar in junior defensive lineman Deone Walker, a 6-foot-6, 350-pounder who can effectively play any position on the line. But the Wildcats have struggled to land more difference-makers like Walker.
Once again, Kentucky has added key pieces from the portal. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson come from Georgia. Tailback Chip Trayanum played at Ohio State (and Arizona State). Offensive tackle Gerald Mincey started on the line at Tennessee after transferring from Florida.
But Vandagriff and Dumas-Johnson are at Kentucky because Carson Beck and C.J. Allen are at Georgia. Trayanum is at Kentucky because Ohio State will split carries between TreyVeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Mincey is at Kentucky because Lance Heard was stuck behind two potential first-rounders at LSU and transferred to Tennessee.
So what do we expect when Kentucky plays Georgia or Tennessee (or other talented rosters such as Texas or Ole Miss)? We expect a team that beats the teams it should and loses to the teams it should. It’s up to Stoops and company to change the second half of that sentence.
LSU
Ceiling: CFP berth
Floor: 7-5
It’s unfair to ask LSU’s offense to be as good as it was last year with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels throwing to fellow first-rounders Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas Jr. (And Mike Denbrock, who left to run Notre Dame’s offense, calling the plays.) But it’s not out of the question that this version of LSU’s offense could come close. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier waited patiently behind Daniels, and now he gets to be patient on passing downs thanks to stalwart offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones. Kyren Lacy should help pick up the slack in the pass game, as should Liberty transfer CJ Daniels. And that line should be able to open holes for a deeper stable of backs.
The real question is on defense. This group was objectively awful last year, and coach Brian Kelly jettisoned the entire defensive staff and hired Missouri’s Blake Baker to perform the overhaul. Thanks to Kelly’s recent comments about the transfer portal, we spent much of this week highlighting how thin LSU is at defensive tackle. Cornerback also remains a question mark, which seems unbelievable given LSU’s history at the position. Linebacker Harold Perkins is the defense’s best player, but the question lingers as to whether he’ll be encouraged to do what he does best (get the ball or whoever has it) or forced into a role that doesn’t allow him to wreak much havoc.
A merely competent defense probably gets LSU to nine or 10 wins. An above-average one puts the Tigers comfortably in the CFP. Anything resembling last year will point them toward the floor.
Mississippi State
Ceiling: 7-5
Floor: 3-9
A few years ago, a new head coach running the Veer and Shoot — the offense made famous at Baylor by Art Briles — would have represented a difficult change-up for a league’s defensive coordinators. The circle on that offense was tight. Few teams ran it.
Now? New Bulldogs coach Jeff Lebby — Briles’ son-in-law and former assistant — enters a league where his chief rival (former Lebby employer Ole Miss) runs a version of the offense. Another of this season’s opponents (Tennessee, coached by former Lebby employer Josh Heupel) runs it. A new member of the league (Oklahoma) just ran it for two years with Lebby calling the plays.
So the element of surprise is not with Lebby. He’ll have to build a great version of his offense at a program that was the victim of tragic circumstances (coach Mike Leach’s death in December 2022) that then decided to pull the plug on Leach’s successor Zach Arnett before Arnett could coach a full season. That decision by new athletic director Zac Selmon probably needed to be made sooner rather than later, but in the short term it left a lot of work to rebuild the roster.
Former Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen’s top targets could be UTEP transfer Kelly Akharaiyi, who racked up 1,033 receiving yards last year on only 48 catches (21.5-yard average) and 2022 SWAC freshman of the year (at Jackson State) Kevin Coleman. The offensive line has been rebuilt through the portal.
Coleman Hutzler, who has made an extensive tour of the current SEC as a position coach and special teams guru, finally gets a chance to run his own defense. He’ll have to adjust players recruited for Arnett’s 3-3-5 to his 3-4 scheme, but this didn’t require as much portal work as the offense needed. The Bulldogs added linebacker Stone Blanton from South Carolina and defensive lineman Sulaiman Kpaka from Purdue.
The Bulldogs face Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Ole Miss, so they’re going to have win their toss-ups. Because this schedule turns downright brutal come the end of September.
Missouri
Ceiling: CFP berth and advance
Floor: 8-4
After last season, I assumed Missouri might take a step back in 2024. Losing edge rusher Darius Robinson, linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper and corners Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw is a lot to absorb for teams that don’t operate in the Alabama-Georgia-Ohio State recruiting stratosphere. And in addition to Missouri losing those and six more key defensive players, LSU hired away defensive coordinator Blake Baker and edge rushers coach Kevin Peoples.
But just as head coach Eli Drinkwitz did to build that 2023 team, he’s mixed a group of plug-and-play transfers with some homegrown talent that was developing behind the stars of the previous season. Defensive tackle Kristian Williams will take a huge leadership role, while the Tigers hope transfer tackle Chris McClellan has the same success Hopper did in Columbia after transferring from Florida.
Cornerback Drey Norwood had to replace Rakestraw on occasion in 2023. Meanwhile, Clemson transfer Toriano Pride returns to his home state hoping to replace Abrams-Draine.
Pride’s high school teammate Luther Burden III is the one who provides the most confidence that Missouri can be as good as it was last year. Burden, who caught 86 passes for 1,212 yards last season, still has Brady Cook throwing him the ball. Oklahoma transfer Cayden Green will replace departed Javon Foster at left tackle, and the Tigers will try to keep humming against a schedule that isn’t as daunting as you might guess considering the SEC is expanding and scrapping divisions. Yes, Missouri has to go to Tuscaloosa on Oct. 26, but the Tigers’ next toughest opponents (Auburn and Oklahoma) are at home. There’s no Georgia, no Texas and no LSU. A 10-2 regular-season record and a CFP berth is very realistic. What doesn’t feel realistic? A serious drop-off.
Oklahoma
Ceiling: CFP berth
Floor: 7-5
This probably is the year we find out whether Brent Venables is the long-term answer at Oklahoma. No, he’s not on the hot seat. But he was hired to build a roster to introduce Oklahoma to the SEC. For the most part he has, but the Sooners’ entrance to the league happens to come at a time when they need to rebuild their offensive line after losing two NFL tackles (Tyler Guyton and Walter Rouse).
Oklahoma also let QB Dillon Gabriel walk in favor of former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold. Arnold probably has the higher ceiling, but he’s going to need to show that quickly as the Sooners get plunged into the deep end with a visit from Tennessee ahead of a trip to Auburn before September ends.
The defense is deep as it has been in a while at Oklahoma, and that might be the strength of this team. The recruitment of TCU transfer defensive tackle Damonic Williams made headlines across the SEC, but the real intrigue is whether five-star freshman defensive tackle David Stone can grow into the type of dominant force that Alabama, Georgia and Texas have but Oklahoma has lacked.
If the Sooners’ offensive line can hold up, pretty much anything is possible given the talent on the rest of the roster. If it doesn’t, that 6.5 Las Vegas win total starts looking pretty prescient.
Ole Miss
Ceiling: CFP and advance
Floor: 8-4
These are the highest expectations Ole Miss has had since 2015 — or maybe this century — and the Rebels seem to have the roster and experience to play their way into the College Football Playoff. They bulked up the defensive line through the transfer portal (tackle Walter Nolen from Texas A&M and edge rusher Princely Umanmielen from Florida). They added a dangerous (if healthy) receiver in Juice Wells from South Carolina. And they already had a game-breaking receiver (Tre Harris) and a quarterback (Jaxson Dart) capable of distributing the ball or running it.
Now Lane Kiffin’s crew needs to prove it can win against the best opponents. Kiffin’s record against Nick Saban’s Alabama and Kirby Smart’s Georgia is going to be brought up until Ole Miss starts beating teams like that. What’s interesting with this particular Ole Miss schedule is that the Rebels probably don’t have to beat any such team to make the CFP. But if they can beat Oklahoma, LSU and/or Georgia, there is a good chance they wind up playing for the SEC title in Atlanta.
South Carolina
Ceiling: 8-4
Floor: 4-8
Bellaire is very excited about Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers, going so far as to suggest a dark horse Heisman Trophy campaign. That’s asking a lot, but if Sellers can scare opponents with his legs and his arm, South Carolina could play toward its ceiling.
This schedule is rough, especially a three-week stretch that brings Ole Miss to Columbia and then sends the Gamecocks to Alabama and Oklahoma. With that waiting in the middle, it makes that Sept. 7 visit to Kentucky feel like a must-win.
Tennessee
Ceiling CFP berth and advance
Floor 8-4
This is a lot to put on the shoulders of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who only has one start on his record so far. But we’ve seen enough to know that some of the limitations the offense had when Joe Milton ran it should be history. Iamaleava is a more instinctive runner, a better improvisor and his comfort with the read-option mesh should allow for more run-pass option plays that should allow Tennessee to begin attacking the middle of the field again.
The defensive line, led by potential top-five draft pick James Pearce Jr., is as deep as Tennessee has had in years. The Volunteers might not be as explosive offensively as they were in 2022, but they might be more complete.
Whether they can make the playoff likely depends on whether they can beat one of Alabama or Georgia. The N.C. State matchup in Charlotte on Sept. 7 should offer a glimpse of whether Tennessee is for real, and facing Oklahoma in its first SEC game in Norman on Sept. 21 will be challenging not just because of the other team on the field but because of the buzz that should envelop the town that day. (No, not because Heupel is returning to the alma mater that fired him as offensive coordinator.)
Texas
Ceiling: National title
Floor: 9-3
Laugh all you want for this obvious “Texas is back” take, but the Longhorns seem to have remedied the two big issues that were holding them back: losing games in which they had a decisive talent advantage and not developing NFL talent. Texas didn’t lay any eggs last season against less-talented opponents, and the Longhorns produced 11 NFL draft picks with more clearly in the pipeline for the next few years.
In short, Texas enters the SEC in the best position it possibly could. The roster is sound, with a veteran quarterback playing behind a talented, veteran offensive line. The interior defensive line could be a little deeper, but the Longhorns should be excellent off the edges and at linebacker. Plus, some of the portal additions feel like perfect fits. Former Alabama tight end Amari Niblack, for example, should be able to fill the Ja’Tavion Sanders role nicely.
Steve Sarkisian seems to have taken the right lessons from Nick Saban about development and roster-building, and that’s why it’s tough to find more than three losses even with a fairly challenging schedule. It’s also why the ceiling is Sark holding the trophy as confetti rains.
Texas A&M
Ceiling: CFP berth
Floor: 5-7
I’m a lot less confident in this ceiling than I am most of the others, but there is a narrow path to double-digit wins for Texas A&M if Mike Elko can work the kind of magic he did in year one at Duke (when he went 9-4 after taking over a team that had gone 3-9). I’m also not confident at all in this floor. It feels as if Texas A&M will lane somewhere in the middle, which does represent improvement given a still-difficult conference schedule and a non-conference matchup with Notre Dame.
The Aggies don’t have the level of talent you’d assume of a team that signed the top-ranked class in the nation two years ago, but they still have some excellent players. Adding Purdue transfer Nic Scourton to the defensive line certainly helps. The biggest question is how much better Collin Klein coaching a healthy Conner Weigman makes the offense. If it’s significantly better, the Aggies could move closer to the ceiling. We’ll probably know one way or another right away, because Notre Dame will bring an excellent defense to Kyle Field.
Vanderbilt
Ceiling: 6-6
Floor: 3-9
If you’re a true college football sicko, then new Commodores QB Diego Pavia already captured your heart the past two seasons as the starter at New Mexico State. The Aggies — then led by current Vandy consultant Jerry Kill — went 7-6 in 2022 and 10-5 in 2023. The previous three seasons, New Mexico State had combined to go 7-29.
Coach Clark Lea has a near-impossible task at Vanderbilt in the NIL/transfer portal era. Every player who proves himself competent in the SEC is a candidate to be poached, and Vanderbilt can’t take transfers as liberally as its conference brethren. But it may have struck gold with Pavia — as long as the Commodores keep him away from opposing team logos.