Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Alabama Crimson Tide in 2024
On Wednesday morning’s live On3 YouTube show, Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire took on the mountainous task of evaluating the ceiling and floor for each SEC football team heading into the first year of the expanded conference.
The two started with none other than Alabama, whose range of outcomes may be a little bit wider this year with the unknowns that come with no longer having Nick Saban roaming the sidelines. However, Staples is very bullish on the Tide and they just couldn’t find too many losses on the Crimson Tide schedule.
So read below on what both Staples and Bellaire had to say of Alabama’s potential vs. its worst possible outcome:
Ceiling: National Championship
Staples made no compromises on his expectations and believes Alabama fans should still uphold those national title expectations even in year one.
“The return of Kadyn Proctor sort of was the tipping point for me,” he commented. “I went up to Tuscaloosa, talked to some people. I don’t think the drop-off is there at all. Alabama, for me, the ceiling is national title.”
Staples makes that assertion because Alabama was nearly a title-winner a year ago and has retained a roster that is about as good and talented as 2023.
“I look at Alabama and what they bring back, it doesn’t feel like they lost a ton off a team that was, let’s be real here, maybe a play away from winning the national title. This is a team that should come into the season expecting to compete for a national title, expecting to go deep in the playoff. It’s hard to imagine them not being in the playoff.”
Cody Bellaire also sees a terrific first season incoming for the new ‘Bama regime and wouldn’t pick against their coach and quarterback combo.
“Are we really going to sit here and bet against a Heisman finalist paired with Kalen DeBoer?” he asked. “I won’t, because I don’t think Kalen DeBoer has shown you anything different at any stop that he’s had that they’re going to struggle.”
If Alabama is going to reach that ceiling, Andy Staples believes fans could find out just how serious the national title aspirations are in Week 4 with the recent back-to-back champs coming to town.
“You get Georgia coming to Tuscaloosa, and that’s where you decide whether it’s going to be the ceiling situation,” said Staples. “Because if they can beat Georgia, they can beat anybody.”
Floor: 9-3
Shifting the focus towards a worst-case scenario, Staples struggles to see how Alabama loses four or more games with how he views the schedule.
“So what I basically did with most of the teams when I was doing the floor is I just sort of split the 50-50 games. The floor is 9-3. I can’t find more than three losses. If they lose three games, what three games are we talking about? Georgia, Tennessee, LSU? Auburn? Oklahoma?”
Cody Bellaire believes there’s a little more breadth in potential records for the Tide and offered up some games that could be challenges for Alabama.
“I think the Georgia and Tennessee games are the two you almost put in chalk that they’re going to have a tough time. I think Wisconsin early is actually kind of scary, Week 3. Luke Fickell is no slouch in his own right and you still need to see DeBoer and Jalen Milroe on the same page. I think Week 3 on the road at Wisconsin is a reasonable test. And I’m just giving you worst-case here.”
Of course, there’s also that big rivalry matchup waiting at the very end of the season, the type of game where you can often throw the records and rosters out the window.
“As you kind of head down the schedule, I think the one that throws me off in there, I think that Iron Bowl is going to be tough, especially since it’s at the end of the season. That last game of the year is, I think, where things turn from a 10-win season to a nine-win season.”
Even with some doubts, Bellaire has Alabama with no more than three losses, and Staples agrees with that high floor. The hope and best possibility is a national title, but the expectation is still at least a nine-win season and likely College Football Playoff berth.