Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Auburn in 2024
Hugh Freeze is entering his second year in charge on the Plains where expectations have taken a step up. Auburn is hoping to improve after a 6-7 season in 2023, ending the year on a three-game losing streak. Additions have been made through recruiting and the NCAA transfer portal, giving the Tigers a much better roster than before.
On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire looked at the ceiling and floor for Auburn in 2024, believing they could push toward the 10-win mark. On the lower side, making a bowl game is viewed as the bare minimum, matching the regular season from 2023.
Ceiling: 9-3
Freeze decided to find new coordinators on both sides of the ball but when it comes to offensive play calling, he’s taken matters into his own hands. He will be the one signaling plays into quarterback Payton Thorne, a huge bonus for Auburn with new NCAA rules.
How Thorne responds and plays on the field is going to be where Auburn can reach its ceiling, in Bellaire’s eyes.
“I think they’ve gotten better, offensively and defensively,” Bellaire said. “The thing that is going to move this train for them is Payton Thorne. What does he look like in Year Two for them? I’m not entirely sure… He’s a dynamic player with the ball in his hands. He can run the ball a little bit.”
Thorne did not have the best stats a season ago, especially looking at the touchdowns to interceptions. Sixteen touchdowns and 11 interceptions is not what Freeze wants but he found a way to help Thorne out in a big way this offseason.
“You add Cam Coleman, who is a dynamic receiver,” Staples said. “Then Keandre Lambert-Smith, I don’t know how dynamic he is. He was good at Penn State but the thing is, he doesn’t have to be Superman because Cam Coleman might be. And if he is as good as we think he’s going to be, that just makes Keandre Lambert-Smith more dangerous. Because he is a good receiver.”
An elevated offense could have been the difference for Auburn in losses by one score or less, something they suffered vs. Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Folks on the Plains will be more confident there heading into 2024.
Floor: 6-6
Teams are only as good as the schedule allows them to be.
Auburn opens and closes the year with favorable matchups, even with the Iron Bowl taking place in Tuscaloosa. Bellaire looks at the heart of the schedule where the Tigers have a rough go. Four quality teams in a row, with three of them at home.
“That little skid in the middle is a little tough,” Bellaire said. “You have Oklahoma at home, Georgia on the road, Missouri on the road, Kentucky on the road… But I don’t see a world in which Auburn does not go to a bowl game.”
A three-game road trip means Auburn will not play at Jordan-Hare Stadium for the entire month of October. Following the Sept. 28 game against Oklahoma, a long stretch of playing away from home will begin, until Nov. 2 against Vanderbilt. It’s a type of stretch that can seriously tax a season.