NCAA Tournament Hosting Picture: Two hosts emerge ahead of conference tournaments
The regular season is complete for most conferences across college baseball, and by this time next week we will know the full NCAA Tournament field. On Monday, we released our latest Field of 64 projections with a few changes in the tournament’s hosting picture.
In this week’s projections, we had two new hosts. They were NC State and Oklahoma State, who joined as the final two top 16 seeds at No. 15 and No. 16. They replaced Wake Forest (No. 8 host in last week’s projections) and Mississippi State (previously No. 14).
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As for the top eight race, the battle seems to be taking shape. Seven teams feel like safe top eight hosts right now, with things still wide open for the final top eight seed. There are also still a few teams that didn’t get the nod as a NCAA Tournament host this week that could surely play their way into the mix this week.
Here is a full breakdown at how the hosting picture stands entering an important week across the sport. The 16 regional hosts will be announced on Sunday, May 26 while the full field will be revealed on Monday, May 27.
NCAA Tournament Hosts: Current top 8 seeds
Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Oregon State
At the top of the hosting race, the SEC is heavily represented. Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Arkansas are all safe top eight hosts, and none of them feel out of it for the No. 1 overall seed. Tennessee (46-10, 22-8 in SEC, No. 5 in RPI) and Kentucky (39-12, 22-8 in SEC, No. 3 in RPI) feel like the two most likely top seeds, as the two both won a share of the SEC regular season title. But between them, Texas A&M and Arkansas, it could come down to who goes deeper in Hoover.
Next, there are a pair of ACC teams that also feel very secure in the top eight mix. North Carolina (41-12, 22-8 in ACC, No. 4 in RPI) won the ACC regular season outright and by multiple games. Clemson (40-13, 20-10 in ACC, No. 7 in RPI) is also in great position right now. UNC will have to battle Wake Forest, in addition to Pitt in the ACC Tournament, while Clemson has Miami and Louisville. Even if neither UNC or Clemson makes it out of their pool, they should be in the top eight.
Then, you have Georgia (39-14, 17-13 in SEC, No. 6 in RPI) and Oregon State (41-13, 19-10 in Pac-12, No. 13 in RPI). The top eight race behind the top six is pretty wide open. Georgia, as of right now, feels like it has the inside track at the top eight and could finish as high as No. 7. But, the Bulldogs face LSU in an elimination game in the SEC Tournament on Tuesday, and an 0-1 showing could push them out of the top eight. Oregon State didn’t win the Pac-12 regular season, but if they win the tournament they are in the top eight mix. If they don’t win either, though, top eight might be a bit out of reach.
Just short of top eight
Oklahoma, Florida State, East Carolina, Indiana State
Oklahoma (34-18, 23-7 in Big 12, No. 15 in RPI) feels like a serious contender to snag one of the top eight seeds. The RPI is low for a top eight, but if they win the Big 12 Tournament after running away with the regular season crown, that will be very loud. Regardless, Oklahoma is a safe host at this point no matter what happens this week.
Florida State (39-14, 17-12 in ACC, No. 8 in RPI) is an interesting team to judge. Their numbers support top eight, but does their resume back that up? The ACC Tournament won’t be easy for them either, with the Seminoles’ pool also including Virginia and Georgia Tech. If Florida State doesn’t make it out of pool play, they might simply get passed over in the race to be a top eight host in the NCAA Tournament.
Then, you have East Carolina (40-13, 19-8 in AAC, No. 16 in RPI) and Indiana State (39-11, 22-5 in Missouri Valley, No. 9 in RPI). ECU’s RPI is low for a top eight seed, but they have a series win over UNC and are No. 2 in RPI, which could speak loud enough to give them the benefit of the doubt if they can win the AAC Tournament. Indiana State’s RPI is good enough at No. 9, but their resume feels light for top eight. But if they win the MVC Tournament, the Sycamores could surely be in play for the top eight.
Other projected hosts
Virginia, UC Santa Barbara, NC State, Oklahoma State
Right now, both Virginia (40-14, 18-12 in ACC, No. 12 in RPI) and UC Santa Barbara (39-12, 23-4 in Big West, No. 10 in RPI) feel to be safe bets to host in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia is in a pool with Florida State and Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament, and even if they don’t make it out of it, they could definitely host. Go 0-2, though, and they might be trending towards bubble territory on the hosting line. UCSB will clinch the Big West regular season with a single win this weekend. No conference tournament could hurt them, though, as they take on UC Riverside (RPI 271) and they’ll lose RPI points for wins and plummet with even a single loss.
NC State (32-19, 18-11 in ACC, No. 14 in RPI) is all of a sudden an intriguing team in the hosting race. The Wolfpack’s overall 32-19 record is light for top eight, but with an 18-11 ACC record, could they leap into top eight territory if they make a deep run in the ACC Tournament? It definitely doesn’t feel completely out of the realm of possibilities. Oklahoma State (36-16, 19-9 in Big 12, No. 17 in RPI) rounds out our hosts this week, and if they win a couple of games in the Big 12 Tournament, they’ll likely be feeling good on Sunday night.
In contention to host
Mississippi State, Wake Forest, Duke, Dallas Baptist, Louisiana Tech, Arizona
Mississippi State (36-19, 17-13 in SEC, No. 23 in RPI) was a very difficult team to cut from our NCAA Tournament hosting picture this week. Ultimately, their RPI at No. 23 just isn’t enough to host. If the Bulldogs beat Ole Miss on Tuesday and make it to the double elimination part of the SEC Tournament, though, they will be right there in contention. It will likely take a few wins, but they can’t be ruled out.
Wake Forest (36-19, 15-15 in ACC, No. 11 in RPI) was a top eight seed last week, but after being swept by NC State and falling to .500 in league play, they were cut from the top 16. The Demon Deacons can surely get back in the mix this week if they can escape a pool that includes North Carolina and also Pitt. Duke (35-18, 16-14 in ACC, No. 20 in RPI) is in a similar boat. Right now, they aren’t there. But if the Blue Devils win their pool with Virginia Tech and NC State, they could play their way back into hosting territory the rest of the week.
Dallas Baptist (40-13, 17-7 in Conference USA, No. 21 in RPI) and Louisiana Tech (41-15, 18-6 in Conference USA, No. 26 in RPI) are both darkhorse candidates to host in the tournament. Louisiana Tech won the regular season Conference USA crown, and if they win the tournament and improve their RPI to top 20 territory, they could sneak in. Dallas Baptist could do the same, even without the regular season championship. They’ll both need help to do so.
Arizona (33-20, 20-10 in Pac-12, No. 28 in RPI) is another darkhorse. The Wildcats lost the series this past weekend to Oregon State, but won the regular season finale to clinch the Pac-12 title. If Arizona goes on a run and wins the Pac-12 Tournament, regular season and tournament titles could be enough to get them in the conversation, at the very least.