Penn State vs. Indiana odds: Win probability, final score prediction in Big Ten Tournament
The Penn State Nittany Lions will face off against the No. 6 Seed in the Big Ten tournament, the Indiana Hoosiers, after dispatching the Michigan Wolverines in their first round matchup. The Nittany Lions were one of four teams in the conference who played in the opening round as the No. 11 Seed after struggling to find consistency throughout the regular season. Still, both programs possess quality playmakers, making this Thursday night Big Ten showdown must-see TV.
In terms of head-to-head record, Penn State swept Indiana in the regular season, winning by an average of 11 points. In their most recent matchup, the Nittany Lions bested the Hoosiers in their home arena 83-74. Since then, Indiana has found new life, winning their last four games of the regular season to capture the Big Ten tournament’s No. 6 Seed.
There is a possibility that Indiana could make the field of 68 without capturing the Big Ten tournament crown. However, because of their 93 NET ranking, it might be a next-to-impossible chance given the committee’s selection decisions in the past. Having said that, Penn State absolutely needs to win the tournament to make it into the field. After finishing the regular season 15-16 and 11-9 in the conference, that is the only way the Nittany Lions can go dancing.
Odds for Penn State vs. Indiana
According to FanDuel, the Hoosiers are narrow 1.5-point favorites to advance to the conference quarterfinals entering Thursday night’s contest. As far as the money line for each team, Penn State sits at +105, while Indiana is at -126.
The current point total for this Big Ten tournament quarterfinal matchup has been set at 149.5. In their two previous matchups this season, the two schools eclipsed that point total, scoring a combined 156 in Bloomington, IN, and 157 in University Park, PA.
Finals are predictions for Nittany Lions vs. Hoosiers
BPI Predicted winner: Indiana
BPI Predicted point differential: 0.2
BPI Win probability (for Indiana): 50.8%
BPI Matchup Quality: 81.6
ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game but gives Indiana an ever-so-slight chance of winning. As far as this matchup is concerned, the sports power’s BPI projects a point differential of just 0.2 points in favor of Indiana while also calculating a razor-thin 50.8 percent chance of victory over Penn State. While the Hoosiers appear to be the better team on paper, their struggles against the Nittany Lions likely carried weight in ESPN’s BPI prediction.
BPI also gives this second round match up a quality score of 81.6, which is right above the middle of the pack of quality scores for the slate of action on Thursday.
KenPom Predicted final score: Penn State 76, Indiana 75
KenPom Win probability (for Penn State): 53 percent
KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time without taking factors like injuries into account. In this quarterfinal contest between the Big Ten combatants, KenPom disagrees with BPI and Vegas and is projecting the Nittany Lions to upset the Hoosiers and advance to the quarterfinal round of the Big Ten tournament.
How to watch Penn State vs. Indiana
Time: 8:00 p.m. CT
Channel: Big Ten Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Minneapolis (Minn.)
Penn State and Indiana will tip off at 8:00 PM CT. The game will take place at the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN, where the Big Ten tournament is being held.
For everyone not watching the action live in the Target Center, you can catch all the action live on the Big Ten Network streaming through FuboTV. First-time viewers of the streaming service have the option of enjoying a free trial.