College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2024 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 1
Week 1 is in the books, and the race for the College Football Playoff is already taking some new turns. There were some big games on tamp to open the 2024 season, and ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura have updated their predictions for the 12-team CFP bracket and the full slate of bowl games.
The AP Top 25 took on a new look after a wild week of action, including a second loss for Florida State. FSU was squarely in the CFP picture in ESPN’s preseason bowl game projections, but is now on the outside looking in after this week’s update.
The top teams remained the same, though. Georgia and Ohio State came in as likely contenders for the national championship after Week 1, and some new faces emerged in the College Football Playoff picture.
That includes Kansas, which came in as a No. 11 seed in Mark Schlabach’s projections. The Jayhawks got a resounding 48-3 win over Lindenwood to start the season as they look to make a run in the new-look Big 12.
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The spring to the College Football Playoff is officially on with the season underway. Here are ESPN’s full predictions for the entire slate of bowl games, from the Celebration Bowl through the national championship.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #1
Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis vs. No. 5 Alabama
Alabama lifted the curtain on the 2024 season with a 63-0 victory over Western Kentucky to kick off the Kalen DeBoer era. Of the Group of Five representatives in ESPN’s bowl game projections, Boise State had one of the most notable days as Asthon Jeanty ran for six touchdowns after the program started his Heisman Trophy campaign before the opener.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #2
Bonagura: No. 11 Arizona vs. No. 6 Texas
Schlabach: No. 11 Kansas vs. No. 6 Texas
Texas started its 2024 season hot with a 52-0 win over Colorado State, which saw both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning get some run. In ESPN’s projections, the Longhorns go up against Big 12 opponents as Schlabach projected Kansas to get the No. 11 seed and Bonagura predicted Arizona to do so.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #3
Bonagura: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Notre Dame
Notre Dame had one of the biggest wins of Week 1, going into Texas A&M and defeating the Aggies in primetime. That set the Fighting Irish up for a path to the College Football Playoff, and both ESPN analysts predict Ole Miss to take on the Fighting Irish.
College Football Playoff: First-round game #4
Bonagura: No. 9 Michigan at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Penn State
Oregon had an interesting Week 1 game against Idaho, which saw the Ducks drop in the AP poll. However, the Ducks still look primed for a run in the new Big Ten, and ESPN has conference rivals Michigan and Penn State as their opponents in the CFP projections.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl
Bonagura: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Utah
Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 4 Utah
Utah started off its Big 12 run in a weeknight matchup against Southern Utah, and it was all Utes en route to the 49-0 victory. Their hopes of a Big 12 run look strong, which could set them up for matchups against Texas or Alabama in ESPN’s projections.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Peach Bowl
Bonagura: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 4 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Miami
Another big-time Week 1 victory came in Gainesville where a revamped Miami cruised past Florida in their rivalry matchup. Both Schlabach and Bonagura project the Hurricanes to win the ACC, although their opponents differe in their College Football Playoff predictions.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game
Bonagura: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 10 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Ohio State
It didn’t take long for Ohio State’s playmakers to make their presences felt in the opener against Akron – most notably Jeremiah Smith, who had 92 yards and two touchdowns to lead the charge. The Buckeyes will keep trying to live up to the hype, and both ESPN analysts have them as the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff field.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl
Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 1 Georgia
Both Schlabach and Bonagura predict a teacher-against-student matchup in the Sugar Bowl. They have Dan Lanning squaring off against his former boss, Kirby Smart, and No. 1-seeded Georgia with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl
Bonagura: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia
We’ve seen a few notable Georgia vs. Alabama games over the last three years. But ESPN projects a new one with Kalen DeBoer picking up where Nick Saban left off and taking on Georgia for a spot in the national championship game.
CFP Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic
Bonagura: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3. Miami vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff semifinal in ESPN’s projections. However, the Buckeyes’ opponent differs with No. 6 seed Texas and No. 3 seed Miami making the cut – although the result is the same in both games.
CFP National Championship
Bonagura: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia
Once again, ESPN’s analysts are in agreement on an Ohio State-Georgia national championship game. This time, though, the Bulldogs were the consensus No. 1 team after holding onto the top spot in the AP poll on Tuesday.
ESPN 2024 Bowl Season predictions after Week 1
Celebration Bowl
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Alabama State vs. NC Central
Camellia Bowl
Bonagura: UAB vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Coastal Carolina
Frisco Bowl
Bonagura: Troy vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. North Texas
Boca Raton Bowl
Bonagura: Tulsa vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. East Carolina
L.A. Bowl
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State
New Orleans Bowl
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Appalachian State
Cure Bowl
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Western Kentucky
Gasparilla Bowl
Bonagura: West Virginia vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Boston College vs. James Madison
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Bonagura: Toledo vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Hawaii Bowl
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Sam Houston State vs. Colorado State
Detroit Bowl
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Maryland
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
68 Ventures Bowl
Bonagura: USF vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Troy vs. Wyoming
Birmingham Bowl
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Army
Armed Forces Bowl
Bonagura: James Madison vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. UTSA
Liberty Bowl
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: UCF vs. Kentucky
Holiday Bowl
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona
Las Vegas Bowl
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Washington
Fenway Bowl
Bonagura: Memphis vs. SMU
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Syracuse
Pinstripe Bowl
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Wisconsin
New Mexico Bowl
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Texas State
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oklahoma State
Arizona Bowl
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. UNLV
Military Bowl
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. USF
Alamo Bowl
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. USC
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC
Independence Bowl
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Cal
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Oregon State
Music City Bowl
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. LSU
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M
ReliaQuest Bowl
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Washington State
Citrus Bowl
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. LSU
Gator Bowl
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma
First Responder Bowl
Bonagura: TCU vs. North Texas
Schlabach: TCU vs. Nevada
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Rutgers
Bahamas Bowl
Bonagura: Sam Houston State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Miami (Ohio)