Conference USA Championship point spread: Picking New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames
The first game of championship weekend will kick off from Lynchburg, Virginia on Friday when New Mexico State (10-3, 7-1) faces off with Liberty (12-0, 8-0).
Ahead of that contest to end the campaign in Conference USA, Andy Staples and Patrick Meagher took a look at the betting lines and made their picks for the contest.
How to watch New Mexico State vs. Liberty
Time: 7 p.m. EST (Friday)
Channel: CBSSN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Williams Stadium (Lynchburg, VA)
Meagher joined on during ‘Andy Staples On3’ on Monday as they both looked at Aggies vs. Flames. Meagher started with an important point regarding undefeated Liberty and their record against the spread as a double-digit favorite.
“This one’s interesting too because Liberty has been a favorite of at least 10.5 – so we’re sitting right now on a Monday morning? I’m seeing a -11 in the market, -10.5 mostly and a 54 on the total. Five times as at least a -10.5-point favorite or more? Liberty has two wins so they’re 2-3 ATS,” said Meagher. “That gives you an idea. Liberty is a dominant team in conference but these post spreads are ridiculous. They’re just 2-3 with a number this big.”
That would lean in the favor of the Aggies, a team that has won eight straight including a 21-point victory on The Plains over Auburn. As he then pointed out, though, Meagher said more of his focus is on the over/under total in this game.
“New Mexico State is more of a under team this year. But Liberty? They’ve gone over on seven of 11 on that total specificially,” said Meagher. “Immediately, I thought over the 54, felt like I had written down 57 as far as my number.”
However, Staples disagreed in a sense on taking the over of 55 or more. In his opinion, the clashing styles of these two teams likely lends itself more to the under in this instance.
“(New Mexico State) is a very well-coached team. They’re very sound. They’re going to play against a team that their offense is based around the triple-option,” Staples explained. “Now, here’s the thing – When you have a sound, well-coached defense playing a triple-option concept type team? You would expect a lower scoring output from that triple-option type team because you’re fundamentally sound, you’re going to hit who you’re supposed to hit every play, and you’re going to make them work to score.”
“That’s what I think happens in this game. That’s why I feel like that number is very high,” said Staples.
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With all that said, Staples is more so excited about the coaching matchup between Jerry Kill and Jamey Chadwell. Based on their 17 combined years of experience, their contest against one another is why he will be tuned in on the CBS Network when they go live from Williams Stadium.
“This is a great coaching matchup,” said Staples. “I can’t wait to see these two guys go at it.”