ESPN ranks every Big 12 Football team ahead of 2025 season

With the 2025 season of Big 12 football on the horizon, we’ve seen no shortage of lists from pundits across every network ranking their favorites from top to bottom. But it’s time to take a look at things through a more analytical lense using SP+ the metric created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

SP+ uses three factors to rank teams for the upcoming season: returning production, player additions (recruits and transfers) and team performance over the past four seasons. It also ” is a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” according to Connelly.

“It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season,” Connelly wrote of the SP+. “These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.”

Connelly ranked all 136 FBS schools at the end of spring practices in May. You can view the full rankings for the Big 12, as well as where every team from the conference stacks up against the rest of the country, below.

1. Kansas State Wildcats (National rank: No. 18)

If you are to go solely off the SP+ rankings, Kansas State is the team to beat in the race for the Big 12 Championship and automatic College Football Playoff berth. The Wildcats return 11 starters from this past season including quarterback Avery Johnson and running back Dylan Edwards.

They helped K-State to rank second in the conference last year with 215.5 rushing yards per game and should challenge for the No. 1 spot this year. Add in that this is a consistent program under coach Chris Klieman, having won at least eight games with one Big 12 title in the past four years, and it makes sense why the model favors the Wildcats above the rest.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils (National rank: No. 22)

Arizona State is coming off of a Big 12 Championship in 2024 and returns the most starters of any Power 4 team in the country with 17. That includes 10 out of 11 defensive starters from a year ago as well as quarterback Sam Leavitt.

The Sun Devils did lose running back Cam Skattebo, who rushed for a Big 12-leading 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns. But the overwhelming number of returning players sets them up well for a potential back-to-back run as conference champs.

3. Texas Tech Red Raiders (National rank: No. 26)

Texas Tech is rising up the preseason rankings based on a stellar transfer portal class, ranking No. 1 in the country according to On3. Some of their big additions include edge rusher David Bailey, defensive lineman Lee Hunter and cornerback Brice Pollack.

That should lead to much better numbers all around for a team that ranked 15th out of 16 teams in the conference in total defense last season. Add in that the Red Raiders return 12 starters, including quarterback Behren Morton, and this is a team ready to make some noise.

4. BYU Cougars (National rank: No. 27)

BYU is coming off of a season in which it tied for first place in the Big 12 in only its second year as a member. The Cougars bring back seven players on offense including quarterback Jake Retzlaff and running back L.J. Martin, but have question marks on defense where only three starters are back.

BYU has twiced reached 10 wins in the past four seasons, though it did have a 5-7 finish during its first year in the Big 12. But Connelly’s metrics like Kalani Sitake to again have BYU competing at the top of the league in 2025.

5. TCU Horned Frogs (National rank: No. 29)

TCU is just three years removed from playing for a national championship during the 2022 season, but has gone a combined 14-11 in the two seasons since. That puts the pressure on this Horned Frogs team, which brings back only nine starters from a year ago.

They at least have quarterback Josh Hoover and most of their players up front on both sides. Coach Sonny Dykes and his staff has also brought in a top three recruiting class in the conference every year of his tenure so far, so there is talent waiting to replace the players lost.

6. Utah Utes (National rank: No. 31)

Utah was predicted to win the Big 12 in last season’s media poll, but ended up finishing near the bottom of the league with a 2-7 conference record. The Utes retooled to add New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier at quarterback, a dual-threat player who had over 1,000 yards rushing this past season.

Utah also brings back 12 starters from last season, including all five offensive linemen. Last year was just the third losing season in 21 years under coach Kyle Whittingham, and the SP+ formula is banking on the Utes to bounce back.

7. Iowa State Cyclones (National rank: No. 32)

Iowa State finished runner up in the Big 12 last year and returns the second-most starters (14) in the conference, so it’s a bit surprising to find them at No. 7. The Cyclones bring back quarterback Rocco Becht (3,505 yards passing, 25 TDs) and all five offensive linemen.

They have a few more question marks on defense, where only five starters return. ISU also brought in the fewest number of transfers (eight) in the Big 12, and perhaps that is hurting it compared to some of the schools above it.

8. Baylor Bears (National rank: No. 35)

There’s not much separation between the top half of the teams in the conference, with all coming in somewhere between the 18-35 range in the SP+ ranking. Baylor ended last year with six straight wins to close out the regular season and will hope that carries over into 2025.

The Bears bring back nine offensive starters, including quarterback Sawyer Robertson and his top two targets from a year ago, Josh Cameron and Ashton Hawkins. Baylor ranked second in the Big 12 last season with 34.4 points per game and should once again light up the offensive scoreboard.

9. Kansas Jayhawks (National rank: No. 50)

After making back-to-back bowl games for the first time in more than a decade in 2022 and 2023, the Jayhawks finished 5-7 this past season. The teams gets quarterback Jalon Daniels back for a sixth season and will hope he can remain healthy to give them a shot to go bowling again.

Other than Daniels, Kansas doesn’t bring back much with only six total starters from a year ago. That plus a transfer portal class that ranked 11th in the conference according to On3 raises a lot of questions about what their ceiling is.

10. Colorado Buffaloes (National rank: No. 52)

Colorado finished in a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 at the end of the regular season last year in just the second season for coach Deion Sanders. But the Buffaloes return only eight starters from that team and lose their two most impactful in quarterback Shedeur Sanders and cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter.

As always, Deion Sanders brought it a huge transfer portal class of 31 players to make up for those losses, including quarterback Kaidon Salter. There’s no telling how it will all come together, and that uncertainty is likely what knocks the Buffaloes down this low on the list.

11. West Virginia Mountaineers (National rank: No. 57)

West Virginia underwent a complete overhaul in the offseason after bringing back former coach Rich Rodriguez for his second stint in Morgantown. The Mountaineers all but three starters from last season, but running back Jahiem White is one big name they do get to return.

WVU brought in a whopping 49 players through the transfer portal, so it’s a complete mystery what this squad might look like. Perhaps they can end up surprising some people, as this ranking suggests they will be far from the worst team in the conference.

12. Oklahoma State Cowboys (National rank: No. 58)

The Cowboys failed to win a Big 12 game last year just one season after they finished runner up in the conference. The 3-9 overall finish was their worst season ever in two decades under Mike Gundy, resulting in a restructured contract for the coach.

That resulted in a change of philosophy this offseason as Oklahoma State hit the portal hard and added 39 new faces to its team. It also hired new offensive and defensive coordinators in Doug Meacham and Todd Grantham, and we’ll see whether those moves pay off.

13. Houston Cougars (National rank: No. 59)

Houston finished 4-8 this past season amid offensive struggles, ranking last in the Big 12 in both points and yards per game. They brought in Texas A&M transfer quarterback Conner Weigman as well as another of other players in attempt to rectify that.

The Cougars also bring back two of their top three receivers from a year ago and 11 total starters. If they can just make progress to get to a bowl game, that would likely be considered a successful year.

14. Arizona Wildcats (National rank: No. 60)

The Wildcats were projected as a potential Big 12 contender last year but ended up finishing just 2-7 in the conference. They lose arguably their best playmaker on offense in receiver Tetairoa McMillan, but does bring back quarterback Noah Fifita as well as seven defensive starters.

Arizona has also averaged less than six wins over the past four seasons, with only one winning season in that span. Unless Fifita and the offense can regain their spark, they may be headed toward another losing record.

15. UCF Knights (National rank: No. 61)

Like West Virginia, the Knights are also welcoming back a former coach as Scott Frost returns to Orlando. He led the team to an undefeated record in the 2017 season, but has a rebuilding task ahead of him as he takes over a team that went 4-8 in 2024.

Only four total starts return from last season and only one on offense, so it will be almost a complete reset. We’ll see whether Frost can return the Knights to their former glory and help them compete in the Big 12.

16. Cincinnati Bearcats (National rank: No. 66)

It’s hard to believe the Bearcats made a College Football Playoff only four years ago. They have gone a combined 8-16 in their first two years in the Big 12 under coach Scott Satterfield, who is certainly entering hot seat territory.

Cincinnati at least returns 10 starts from last season, including quarterback Brendan Sorsby. They also brought in the No. 4 transfer class in the conference according to On3, so perhaps some improvement could be on the way.