Greg McElroy makes picks for marquee Week 2 games
The college football season is underway and ahead of Week 2, analyst Greg McElroy shared some thoughts on several marquee games and made his picks for them.
McElroy made the picks on his show, Always College Football. There, he made sure to share some notes about every game. That included context for the game and how each team has performed against the spread in similar situations recently.
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Here’s a look at Greg McElroy’s picks for Week 2 of the college football season with games from the early window all the way through primetime.
Texas at Michigan
The biggest game in the early window of games on Saturday sees the Texas Longhorns travel to the Big House to play the Michigan Wolverines. It’s a game between two College Football Playoff teams last season who want to get back there this season. It’s also a game that Greg McElroy expects Texas to win.
As McElroy explained, if you look at how these teams have done against the spread recently then it shows some interesting trends, like how “Michigan is 4-0 against the spread against top 10 teams dating back to last season.” Still, Texas is the favorite in this game despite not being in this situation recently. In fact, It’s been more than a decade since the Longhorns were in this exact spot.
“Texas, this is the first time favored in a road game against a top 10 opponent since 2008…that was the Texas Tech game where Michael Crabtree scored the game-winning touchdown with one second remaining,” McElroy said.
Still, he’s picking Texas to go in and get the win because of his concerns about Michigan’s offensive line and the weapons that quarterback Quinn Ewers can take advantage of in the game.
Arkansas at Oklahoma State
The next game that McElroy took a look at was between the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Oklahoma State Sooners. This comes after both teams got wins against FCS opponents in Week 1 of the season. Now, against what should be tougher competition, each team is looking to keep rolling.
For his part, McElroy pointed out that there are a lot of reasons based on recent history to expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. After all, “Arkansas is 4-0 against the spread as a road underdog since the start of last season. Only UNLV has a better record over that span.” Meanwhile, “Oklahoma State, the under has hit in four straight games against SEC opponents.”
Ultimately, Greg McElroy thinks that Oklahoma State is going to get the win, but he expects it to be a close one by the end of the game.
“I think this game comes down to the wire but, ultimately, think the experience on Oklahoma State’s team offensively and defensively in addition to the home field gives them the slight edge,” McElroy said.
South Carolina at Kentucky
The South Carolina Gamecocks are on the road as a double-digit underdog against the Kentucky Wildcats to open SEC play. It’s a game that could set the tone for both teams. However, it’s not a game that Greg McElroy was willing to pick because he’s going to be a part of the broadcast for the game.
While not predicting a winner, he did add some context based on their recent performances. In particular, he shared that “South Carolina is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a double-digit underdog, including two outright wins. Both came two years ago. One was against Tennessee…they also beat Clemson.”
On top of that, given that “the under has hit in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams,” it may not be surprising to see a defensive battle.
Both Kentucky and South Carolina earned Week 1 wins but they looked very different. The Wildcats won 31-0 over Southern Miss. South Carolina, meanwhile, was only able to beat Old Dominion by four points. With both of those being Sun Belt programs, and this game being played in Lexington, it makes sense why Kentucky is seen as the favorite.
Tennessee vs NC State
The Tennessee Volunteers are taking on the NC State Wolfpack in Charlotte for what’s going to be a neutral site game. they also come in looking good, especially offensively, where they’re led by quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
When looking at recent trends for how Tennessee has played against the spread, Greg McElroy found some interesting and contradictory trends for the Volunteers.
“Tennessee is 10-1 against the spread in non-conference games since 2022,” McElroy said. “That includes four straight covers, and Tennessee they’re also 1-4 straight up against the spread in their last five games against ranked opponents. So, two very different numbers there.”
Despite that, McElroy still thinks that Tennessee is going to win this game. That’s, in large part, because of the firepower that the Volunteers have compared to the Wolfpack throughout the roster. He explained, “I think they have a little more firepower and I think they will avoid a costly mistake and really I think it’s the pass rush of Tennessee that’s going to ultimately win them this game.”
Colorado at Nebraska
Colorado has now won three straight games against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. That includes last year’s game that pitted head coach Deion Sanders and Matt Rhule against one another. Despite that, Greg McElroy still thinks Nebraska will win because, as he explained, “I think they have grown drastically with their offensive personnel.”
The prediction would buck the recent trends that McElroy has found on these two programs as it relates to the spread. He shared that “Colorado is 6-1 against the spread as a 7-point underdog since last season. That’s the best in the FBS.” On the other hand, the Cornhuskers have been terrible in this spot going back to the Mike Riley era.
“Nebraska 12-26 against the spread as a favorite since 2017,” McElroy said. “That’s the worst in the FBS over that span among the 104 teams that have been favored 30-plus times.”
Still, as McElroy explained, this isn’t the same Cornhuskers team on paper. It appears to be much improved all around. So, he feels good picking Nebraska in this game.
Greg McElroy will have his eye on all of these games, as will most college football fans. These are some of the biggest games of the week, whether they’re a ranked matchup or a game filled with narratives. However, they’re just the tip of the iceberg for what should be a thrilling second week of college football.