PREVIEW: Kentucky travels to Florida for important series
Kentucky Baseball’s end of season push for an SEC Regular Season Championship begins this weekend in Gainesville.
With just six regular season games remaining, the Cats sit alone atop the Southeastern Conference with an 18-6 record. Arkansas and Tennessee (17-7) however are hot on their trail, making every game the most important of the season.
Kentucky is the lone team among the seven programs that are still mathematically alive in the SEC title race (Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina) that will not play a ranked opponent in its final two series. However, Florida is no stepping stone. The Cats haven’t won a series against the Gators since 2016, as they’ve lost six consecutive heading into this weekend.
Friday’s first pitch has been moved from 6:30 p.m. EST to 1:00 p.m. EST due to expected inclement weather in Gainesville, so the Cats and Gators will get their weekend started a bit earlier.
Florida
Florida has been among one of the most disappointing teams in all of college baseball this season, but they are still tabbed to make the NCAA Tournament as of now. The Gators are a three seed in the Durham (Duke) Region in D1Baseball’s latest Field of 64 Projections.
They’re 25-23 (10-14), but have nice series wins over No. 4 Texas A&M and No. 14 Mississippi State. Florida has only been sub-.500 in conference play just four times since 2000 (2003, 2006, 2013, 2019), but it looks like the Gators are headed that way this season unless they win at least five of their final six games.
The Gator pitching staff has been wildly underwhelming, as they boast the worst team ERA in the entire SEC (6.26). Florida’s three starters this weekend (Coppola, Peterson, Caglianone) have a combined 6.68 ERA in 70 1/3 innings pitched in SEC play. Pierce Coppola hadn’t pitched in a game since February 20, 2022 until he returned to action against South Carolina on April 13 of this season.
Designated hitter/left-handed pitcher Jac Caglianone will however be a handful for Nick Mingione to deal with on both sides of the ball. Caglianone is one of the best players in all of college baseball, tabbed a top-five pick in the upcoming 2024 MLB Draft by every national media outlet.
The respect is well warranted, as Caglianone is near the top of every statistical category in the conference. His .412 batting average, .856 SLG %, 77 hits, and 27 home runs rank second behind only Georgia’s Charlie Condon. Cags has slipped just a bit against SEC competition however, as he’s batting just .363 in conference play. He however did hit a home run in nine consecutive games earlier this season, which tied the record for the most home runs hit in consecutive games at the NCAA level.
His home run against Jacksonville on April 16 traveled 516 feet, longer than any recorded home run at the major league level since the beginning of Statcast. Kentucky held Condon homerless earlier this season, so they’ll look to neutralize Caglianone as well.
Other than Caglianone, the Florida offense is led by outfielder Ty Evans (.324 BA, 13 HR, 42 RBI), second baseman Cade Kurland (.268 BA, 9 HR, 30 RBI), and shortstop Colby Shelton (.262 BA, 16 HR, 39 RBI). Florida’s .271 team batting average ranks 10th in the SEC, while its 99 home runs rank fourth in the conference.
A series victory over Kentucky for the Gators would all but wrap up a 16th consecutive NCAA Tournament berth, so this weekend is ultra important for Florida as well.
Kentucky
With a sweep this weekend, the Cats could win a program record 21st conference game. Kentucky’s 20-10 record in 2006 is the current program benchmark.
Many concerns arose following Kentucky’s back-to-back series losses to Tennessee and South Carolina, but the Cats shut down all doubt this past weekend with a pivotal series victory over then No. 2 ranked Arkansas. It was Kentucky’s first series victory over the Razorbacks since 2012.
Kentucky starters left-hander Dominic Niman and right-hander Mason Moore entered the weekend heavily struggling, as the two allowed a combined 24 earned runs in their prior 10 2/3 innings pitched (21.18 ERA). Niman and Moore bounced back in a big way against the Hogs however, as Niman allowed just five hits and two earned in 5 1/3 innings while Moore allowed just three hits and two earned runs in five innings.
Friday starter right-hander Trey Pooser has even flown under the radar, but he’s been one of Kentucky’s most consistent pitchers since his transition to the weekend rotation on March 22. Through seven starts in SEC play, Pooser is 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA in 41 innings pitched. His 3.51 ERA in SEC play ranks third among qualified pitchers in the conference.
While the Wildcat pitching staff seems to have righted the ship, the offense continues to be among the best in the conference. Kentucky boasts five players (Waldschmidt, McCarthy, Lopez, Nicholson, Pitre) batting over .300 in SEC play, while shortstop Grant Smith just missed the cutoff with a .299 average.
Outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt‘s .396 batting average ranks third in the conference, along with his .500 OBP% and 38 hits. First baseman Ryan Nicholson‘s 12 home runs are also tied for fifth most in the SEC. Kentucky’s .293 team batting average ranks fifth in the conference, just behind Georgia (.306), Alabama (.308), Texas A&M (.314), Tennessee (.322).
Designated hitter Nick Lopez (4-10, six RBI) and Émilien Pitre (5-10, three doubles, six RBI) showed up big time for the Cats in the Arkansas series, propelling them to the series victory. With this Kentucky lineup, you never know who will be the hero as all nine up and down are more than capable of fulfilling that role.
We’re officially on the Highway to Hoover, and these next two weeks should be an absolute blast. The Cats would all but wrap up a top-four bye in the SEC Tournament with a series victory this weekend.
Probable Starters
ALL-TIME SERIES: Florida leads 149-72-1
Game 1: Friday, May 10, 2024 (Condron Family Ballpark – 1:00 p.m. EST) SEC Network+
UK: RHP Trey Pooser (3-1, 3.88 ERA) vs UF: LHP Pierce Coppola (0-2, 10.50 ERA)
Game 2: Saturday, May 11, 2024 (Condron Family Ballpark – 12:00 p.m. EST) SEC Network
UK: LHP Dominic Niman (8-3, 4.85 ERA) vs UF: RHP Liam Peterson (1-4, 6.54 ERA)
Game 3: Sunday, May 12, 2024 (Condron Family Ballpark – 12:00 p.m. EST) SEC Network
UK: RHP Mason Moore (8-1, 4.96 ERA) vs UF: LHP Jac Caglianone (5-1, 4.39 ERA)
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