The Road to the Kentucky Derby: Keeneland Highlights Coast to Coast Saturday
We are only one month away from the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. Today will serve as the final test for the top contenders. Three Kentucky Derby prep races are on the slate from coast to coast, spread out between 4:00 and 7:30 pm EST.
For at least the last week, every moment of my mind with even the briefest void has been filled with Derby thoughts. If you don’t have the Derby Fever yet, today’s a great day to catch it. Dive in head first with five stake races at Keeneland, highlighted by the track’s biggest event of the year, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Blue Grass Stakes
This is without a doubt the most competitive field for a Kentucky Derby prep race this year. 4 Dornoch has two Derby prep wins with Luis Saez aboard and isn’t even the favorite. That title belongs to 10 Sierra Leone, who actually lost to Dornoch in December. The latter is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Tyler Gafflione. Shortly after cruising to a Risen Star win in February, Sierra Leone was the top choice in Kentucky Derby futures pools.
Those colts could all be playing second fiddle to 6 Just a Touch. Brad Cox is on a path to putting the most horses into the Kentucky Derby starting gate and this might be the best of his bunch. The Justify colt debuted with an easy victory in the slop, then got held up with another race in the mud on a short one-mile Gotham Stakes. Just a Touch was closing hard, but ran out of room to reach the finish line first.
Handicapping
Dornoch will provide the early speed, setting up Just a Touch and Sierra Leone to close. The latter might have too far to go from the 10-post. I’m win-betting Just a Touch and will sprinkle in a few long shots in exotic plays.
5 Good Money has shown nothing of note at Tampa Bay Downs, but Good Magic’s progeny has been exceptional. Irad Ortiz and Todd Pletcher won the Ashland on Friday with a 9-1 horse and today 2 Be You opens at 8-1. That’s good enough for me.
Post Positions
1. Top Conor, Jose Ortiz, Chad Brown, 15-1
2. Be You, Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher, 8-1
3. Seize the Grey, Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas, 20-1
4. Dornoch, Luis Saez, Danny Gargan, 3-1
5. Good Money, Javier Castellano, Chad Brown, 20-1
6. Just a Touch, Florent Geroux, Brad Cox, 7-2
7. Lat Long, Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek, 30-1
8. Epic Ride, Adam Beschizza, John Ennis, 20-1
9. Mugatu, Joe Talamo, Jeff Engler, 30-1
10. Sierra Leone, Tyler Gaffalione, Chad Brown, 2-1
11. Encino, Flavien Prat, Brad Cox, 12-1
Post Time: 5:52
TV: FanDuel TV (Formerly TVG)
Wood Memorial
Don’t let the NYRA butt-slappers tell you otherwise. The Wood Memorial is not a proving ground for Kentucky Derby winners. Fusaiachi Pegasus in 2000 was the last colt to use the race at Aqueduct as its final prep before wearing the garland of roses on the first Saturday in May.
Counterpoint: Vino Rosso (Breeders’ Cup Classic) and Mo Donegal (Belmont) have gone on to have success over the last six years, but it’s difficult to discern if any of the New York circuit horses will be worth considering on Derby Day… unless the 7-5 favorite, 4 Deterministic, gets the job done.
Trained by Christophe Clement, the colt had all kinds of reasons to lose its last race. He hadn’t raced in seven months. It was just his second start. The Aqueduct track was a soupy slop, yet Deterministic rallied from third to first down the straightaway to win by two lengths and post a 99-Beyer speed figure, one of the bests by a 3-year-old this year.
Handicapping
9 Tuscan Sky has a similar profile to the favorite with more proven connections (Pletcher, Manny Franco). Consider boxing it with 2 El Grande O, who is a classic bridesmaid that always hits the board, but never comes away as the winner.
Post Time: 4:07 pm EST
TV: FS2
Santa Anita Derby
The race that crowns the best 3-year-old on the West Coast circuit has been the Bob Baffert Invitational. The two-time Triple Crown winner has nine Santa Anita Derby victories, and that doesn’t include his horse Taiba, who was briefly moved to Tim Yakteen’s barn in 2022 to remain eligible for the Kentucky Derby while Baffert dueled in court with Churchill Downs.
Baffert finally put down his guns and threw in the white flag, but Churchill Downs did not. He is still banned from running horses in the Kentucky Derby. Unlike Taiba and so many others, this year Baffert’s best stayed in his barn. He has the Santa Anita Derby favorite, 4 Imagination, but the top choice cannot earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Instead, all of Baffert’s horses are pointing to the Preakness, creating an unusual phenomenon where the second or third-place finisher could earn 50 points and secure a spot at Derby 150.
Handicapping
3 Stronghold had a solid 2-year-old campaign, then picked up Derby points in its 3-year-old debut with a victory over a weak field in the Sunland Derby. The folks at Churchill would love for this horse to take the top prize, but something tells me that won’t be the case. Baffert’s other horse, 5 Wynstock, took out Stronghold in December. After starting this spring with a bomb, this colt is due to improve and might be a price worth betting at post-time if there aren’t a handful of late scratches.
Post Time: 7:30
TV: CNBC
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