In nine seasons of the 4-team playoff, 14 teams have at least one CFP appearance. If we apply the 12-team playoff format to the past nine seasons, 29 additional teams would have at least one appearance, including Mississippi State.
The biggest winner of expansion is Penn State. They have never been to the CFP, but they would have five appearances under the 12-team format. The biggest loser of expansion is Alabama. They have seven appearances in nine seasons and would only have one more appearance under the 12-team format (this year). They would have had to win at least one more game to win the CFP (quarterfinal vs. semifinal). In 2017 Alabama would have had to win two more games on their way to the title. Ohio State is the only team that would have never missed a CFP under the 12-team format.
Realistically, we need to win 10 games to make a 12-team playoff. 9-3 is possible but unlikely. Our most likely path to the CFP:
The biggest winner of expansion is Penn State. They have never been to the CFP, but they would have five appearances under the 12-team format. The biggest loser of expansion is Alabama. They have seven appearances in nine seasons and would only have one more appearance under the 12-team format (this year). They would have had to win at least one more game to win the CFP (quarterfinal vs. semifinal). In 2017 Alabama would have had to win two more games on their way to the title. Ohio State is the only team that would have never missed a CFP under the 12-team format.
Realistically, we need to win 10 games to make a 12-team playoff. 9-3 is possible but unlikely. Our most likely path to the CFP:
- 4-0 vs. non-con
- 4-0 vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, SEC East team not named Georgia
- 2-2 vs. Alabama, LSU, A&M, and Auburn