Few things I feel are genuinely interesting about this:
1. There's a $17-$18 Million exit fee per school with a 2 year notice for the MWC, which means they effectively withhold their media payout for the previous two years.
2. The MWC TV contract ends in 2026, so I don't know if the exit fee is really going to be enforced (though their commissioner said she expects them to pay it).
3. Part of the Pac-12 scheduling agreement with the Mountain West included some pretty sharp fees for poaching a member before August 2, 2027. It ends up being almost $11 Million per school, so these 4 schools are going to cost the Pac-12 about $44 Million in penalties alone.
4. That ends up being well over $100 Million to add these 4 schools. I know Oregon State and Washington State got a windfall from the Pac-12 settlement and media payouts, but are they really going to dump that into freeing 4 MWC schools?
5. Dissolving the Mountain West requires 9 of their 12 football playing members to vote, so these 4 may just be the first set of dominos. If they get 5 more MWC schools to join the Pac 12, then they can get enough votes in the next two years to dissolve the MWC and not have to pay the exit fees or the penalties. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw San Jose State, UNLV, Air Force, and some combo of Wyoming/Nevada/New Mexico/Utah State get picked off as well. That would give them the 9 they need to dissolve the MWC and avoid the payouts. I left Hawaii out because they don't currently have a real stadium and I'm not sure they're even going to be in the FBS in the next 5 years.
6. It's a fantasy to believe Cal or Stanford will leave the ACC for a duct taped version of the Pac-12. I also don't think it's likely they'll bring in anybody in the FCS unless the above scenario falls through.
7. Most MWC members make about $4-$5 Million per year from their media payout. Boise makes more than the rest because of the deal made when they joined the conference, so theirs is closer to $7-8 Million. Now, that's low in the grand scheme of things, but it's money in hand and I don't think they're going to make less during the next round of media negotiations. This tells me that the Pac probably has some deal ready with some outlet that's going to get them above the $10 Million per school range.