As the sprinklers came on in Clearwater today, random thoughts-
1- Biggest story lines of the spring were the injuries to Hoskins and Painter and the failure to get a deal done with Nola. All were unforeseen and all three have the ability to shape this season and beyond. The failure to reach agreement with Nola was not the way the Phillies regularly do their business. It happened recently with JT but the Phillies normally sign the guys that factor into their long term plans rather than letting them play through their walk year. I am shocked a Nola deal didn’t get done.
What does it mean to Nola? He’s got a slow and steady heart rate so I’d think he takes care of business and doesn’t obsess over this. But you have just lost control over a guy now who will be the jewel of the FA pitching class. BIG spenders will court him and you never know what happens if he attracts an off the chart offer. Painter? I’d be very careful and personally I might consider a red shirt season to get him right and keep him right. I nearly lost my mind with how they mis-managed Seranthony before; they can’t do the same here with a guy who could be your #1 for a decade. Rhys was a gut punch. He is who he is but guys that can carry a team for weeks at times don’t fall off trees. If he needs to have a show me season in 2024, his coming back on a one year deal might be the only way him and Nola are BOTH Phillies next year.
2- The good - The pen might be the best they have had in a LONG time. They have multiple back end guys from both sides (Seranthony/Kimbrel and Soto/Alvarado) for high leverage and your depth of Brogdon, Marte, and Bellati are all solid.
The bench is really good. Stubbs, Sosa, Harrison, and Kave can play. I like Guthrie who I think started 1-21 but finished hitting around .230. They are all solid. Hall gets a HUGE chance for both this year and beyond. Big guys like this normally have some blind spots. People should not be ahead of themselves extrapolating part time stats, etc. There is a reason he’s been a 4A type of player to date. Let’s see how this goes.
3- The bad - I don’t like how the starters looked. I don’t know what I saw in Dunedin a couple of days back. Walker had zero velocity barely topping 85. He literally looked like he was throwing BP. I had no idea what was going on. Falter is ok at #5. They need Ranger to get straightened out ASAP. The spring started with Painter being your 5; it ended with Falter being your 4 to start the season. That’s not good. The staff is a serious work in progress. Can Abel help at some point this year? TBD?
Spring stats mean nothing but I saw enough to at least have a little concern with Stott and Marsh. If you made the decision based on spring, Sosa would be your starter over Stott. Kingery could help at some time. Marsh just isn’t that skilled offensively, but you can’t afford to not have his glove out there.
The biggest wildcard is Nick. I thought the routine would help him this year but he has glaring holes in his setup and bat path. Long has worked tirelessly with him and both him and Nick like where he’s at. I didn’t like what I saw. He will be pitched middle out and his bat looked heavy to me at times. Maybe he comes out on fire but he’s a bit scary to me.
Bottom line, Bohm will be better and if Nick is closer to 21 Nick, they will cook big time when Harper gets back. Their bench is better and their pen is night and day improved. I suspect they add pitching (starter) at the break.
Hard to predict since Harper timetable is not known. My guess-90 wins and another post season run. TURNER top 3 MVP vote.
One last meaningless thing. I watched Topper leave the field yesterday and while doing so he shook the hand and said something to every stadium person he passed. That doesn’t happen. It’s that connection that makes him such a fit for this team at this time and why his players respond to him. Time for the boys to grind.
Sorry to see it end down here.
@MrTailgate -- thanks for taking the time to offer your thoughts and observations from Spring Training.
some reactions:
- Hoskins: such a tough break for him, on a year to try to convince another team to give him a lot of $$ in future years. Rhys can drive me crazy when he's in a hitting funk, or when he shows that D was never his strength. But when his bat gets hot, as it did in the postseason except for the WS, he can really carry the team. It will be interesting to see how his absence affects the overall lineup
- Painter: I certainly was bummed that they had to shut him down. But at the same time, he had pitched so few innings per season in the minors, that I think folks were getting ahead of themselves in penciling him in as the 4th or 5th starter. There's a good chance that even if he was healthy, that the Phils would not have brought him up until June or July. Longterm, I have concerns about the injury, but there really does seem to be agreement with all the medical folks that rest is all that is needed
- Nola: I'm surprised the parties couldn't reach agreement. The Phils want him back. Nola seems to like it here, though he's tough to read at times. He's going to get a lot of money wherever he signs after this season. Hopefully, at the end of the season, the two parties can reach an agreement, as his innings, and the quality of his starts, will be very tough to replace
- the 'Pen: after years of watching ineptitude from the Phils' bullpen, it's quite refreshing to see so many quality arms. Kimbrel's velocity is a concern, but hopefully that can get resolved. I'm not crazy about starting the season with planning to use a bullpen committee as the 5th starter, but it is what it is. If this team hits as well as we expect them to, the 5th starter situation may be a non-issue
- the Bench: Hoskins's injury jumbled things up a bit. Pache is a nice defensive addition for the OF; his offense seems inconsistent. Kingery and Clemmons and a few other guys made a strong case for their inclusion on the bench. That they aren't there says a lot about the strength of this year's bench
- Stott & Marsh: I didn't follow spring training as closely as usual, so I'm disappointed to read your observations here. I believe both started off spring training doing well with the bat. Both provide excellent D, so if the rest of the lineup is clicking, the inconsistency of these two might be not that big a deal. But it would be a heck of a lot easier for Topper and the team if Marsh and Stott found their grooves, and were solid contributors to the offense
- Castellanos: he was the biggest disappointment (to me) on the team last season. If that continues this season, the team may have to move on from him, as he's getting too much money for the low offensive production, and his D is adequate at best
It should be an interesting season. The new schedules suck, but may work to the advantage of the Phils. The Braves and the Mets will be tough challengers. Hopefully, the team does well enough until Bryce can return. Once that happens, is should be a fun ride. Only time will tell if they can return to the WS. If CPB can return to what it was during the days of Howard/Utley/Rollins/etc., and what it was like in last year's postseason, it should be a lot of fun for fans and the Phils.