5+7 is official

[Dawgg]

As expected the CFP board approved the 5+7 format. The top 5 champions plus 7 at large spots.

CFP approves 5+7 model for 12-team playoff

The College Football Playoff's new format will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions in the expanded 12-team field, along with the seven highest-ranked teams, the CFP announced Tuesday.

www.espn.com

 

[pseudonym]

So, are the two Pac-12 schools not eligible for an auto-bid in 2024?

If we map the 5+7 to last year's final CFP rankings/conference realignment (assuming the highest-ranked team is the conference champ), this would be the field:

1. Michigan (Big Ten champ)*
2. Texas (SEC champ)*
3. Florida State (ACC champ)*
4. Arizona (Big XII champ)*
5. Washington (Big Ten at-large)
6. Alabama (SEC at-large)
7. Georgia (SEC at-large)
8. Ohio State (Big Ten at-large)
9. Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
10. Missouri (SEC at-large)
11. Penn State (Big Ten at-large)
12. Liberty (Conference USA champ)

*-first-round bye

All seven at-large bids go to the SEC/Big Ten...

ETA: Just found the answer. Oregon State/Washington State not eligible for auto-bid. Liberty would be in 12-team CFP in that scenario.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

So, are the two Pac-12 schools not eligible for an auto-bid in 2024?

No. That's clearly stated in the article.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I wish they'd quit screwing around and take it to 16, with all neutral site games. That's 15 bowl games right there.

 

[Perd Hapley]

So, are the two Pac-12 schools not eligible for an auto-bid in 2024?

If we map the 5+7 to last year's final CFP rankings/conference realignment (assuming the highest-ranked team is the conference champ), this would be the field:

1. Michigan (Big Ten champ)*
2. Texas (SEC champ)*
3. Florida State (ACC champ)*
4. Arizona (Big XII champ)*
5. Washington (Big Ten at-large)
6. Alabama (SEC at-large)
7. Georgia (SEC at-large)
8. Ohio State (Big Ten at-large)
9. Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
10. Missouri (SEC at-large)
11. Penn State (Big Ten at-large)
12. Liberty (Conference USA champ)

*-first-round bye

All seven at-large bids go to the SEC/Big Ten...

ETA: Just found the answer. Oregon State/Washington State not eligible for auto-bid. Liberty would be in 12-team CFP in that scenario.

Way too many assumptions on that list.

There’s no way to say Texas would have won the SEC last year, or that Michigan would have won a B1G that included Washington and Oregon, or that Arizona would have won a Big XII that included Utah and also KSU / Oklahoma State who were in contention for the title.

Also don’t think there’s any chance Arizona would be 4th overall. 5 highest conference champs are guaranteed inclusion to the field, but I don’t see where it says the Top 4 all have to be conference champs. If so, that’s a deeply flawed format.

ETA: Nevermind. It is buried there in the fine print about 4 highest ranked champs getting the bye. What a damn joke.

 

[pseudonym]

Way too many assumptions on that list.

There’s no way to say Texas would have won the SEC last year, or that Michigan would have won a B1G that included Washington and Oregon, or that Arizona would have won a Big XII that included Utah and also KSU / Oklahoma State who were in contention for the title.

It's not a prediction for 2024. It's an example of how things could fall in any given year, 2024 or after. Flip Texas and Georgia. Flip Michigan and Ohio State. Replace Arizona with Utah. I don't care.

There is a good chance the ACC and/or Big XII champ could be outside the top 12 (in addition to the top G5 champ). This takes away one or two SEC/Big Ten bids compared to our original concept of the 12-team CFP, which included five clear power conferences. It's now 2+2+5.

The bottom line is that 10-2 in the SEC is more precarious than we originally thought.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Also don’t think there’s any chance Arizona would be 4th overall. 5 highest conference champs are guaranteed inclusion to the field, but I don’t see where it says the Top 4 all have to be conference champs. If so, that’s a deeply flawed format.

ETA: Nevermind. It is buried there in the fine print about 4 highest ranked champs getting the bye. What a damn joke.

Agree......that's turrrrrrrrrible. But probably the only way they could get the lesser conferences to agree to a bigger playoff.

 

[dorndawg]

I wish they'd quit screwing around and take it to 16, with all neutral site games. That's 15 bowl games right there.

Are all of the games for the 12 going to be neutral? I guess I assumed 1st round would be on campus for the higher seed. Either way, are fans really going to travel that much?

Or is it an extension of the current bowl system and all that really matters is the tv audience?

 

[Perd Hapley]

It's not a prediction for 2024. It's an example of how things could fall in any given year, 2024 or after. Flip Texas and Georgia. Flip Michigan and Ohio State. Replace Arizona with Utah. I don't care.

There is a good chance the ACC and/or Big XII champ could be outside the top 12 (in addition to the top G5 champ). This takes away one or two SEC/Big Ten bids compared to our original concept of the 12-team CFP, which included five clear power conferences. It's now 2+2+5.

The bottom line is that 10-2 in the SEC is more precarious than we originally thought.

Ultimately you still have 9 spots for the B1G and SEC though. A 10-2 SEC team is going to be in the Top 9 overall, without fail. No concern there at all. That’s a much bigger problem for the B1G than it is for the SEC.

 

[pseudonym]

ETA: Nevermind. It is buried there in the fine print about 4 highest ranked champs getting the bye. What a damn joke.

Many people won't realize this until it happens: The ACC and Big XII champs are almost guaranteed byes to the second round.

The only scenario this doesn't happen is a G5 champ getting a bye, which is even crazier.

Not a bad time to be teams like Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, etc.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Are all of the games for the 12 going to be neutral? I guess I assumed 1st round would be on campus for the higher seed. Either way, are fans really going to travel that much?

Or is it an extension of the current bowl system and all that really matters is the tv audience?

Currently, first round is at higher seed's home field (or choice). Once it is condensed to 8, they go neutral sites/bowls.

And yes, it's all about TV money. But fans will absolutely travel. Obviously you want to keep it somewhat regional. Our fans (small fanbase and not a lot of money) spent a small fortune in Omaha in June 2021.

 

[pseudonym]

Ultimately you still have 9 spots for the B1G and SEC though. A 10-2 SEC team is going to be in the Top 9 overall, without fail. No concern there at all. That’s a much bigger problem for the B1G than it is for the SEC.

10-2 Ole Miss was #11 in last year's final CFP poll. Now imagine they are 10-2 in 2024 with losses to Georgia and LSU. Their best win is Oklahoma or Kentucky at home.

That's why I think Ole Miss has to beat Georgia or LSU to feel good about the CFP.

ETA: Also, nine SEC/Big Ten teams is the max. Years when Florida State AND Clemson are good we'll see if the committee wants to give a bid to the fifth SEC team or the second ACC team. Or if the committee prefers Notre Dame over the fifth Big Ten team. It will be interesting to see it playing out.

 

[pseudonym]

Are all of the games for the 12 going to be neutral? I guess I assumed 1st round would be on campus for the higher seed. Either way, are fans really going to travel that much?

Or is it an extension of the current bowl system and all that really matters is the tv audience?

Seeds 5-8 host seeds 9-12. Neutral field after that.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Actually our fans spent a large fortune in Omaha comparatively speaking.

 

[Perd Hapley]

10-2 Ole Miss was #11 in last year's final CFP poll. Now imagine they are 10-2 in 2024 with losses to Georgia and LSU. Their best win is Oklahoma or Kentucky at home.

That's why I think Ole Miss has to beat Georgia or LSU to feel good about the CFP.

ETA: Also, nine SEC/Big Ten teams is the max. Years when Florida State AND Clemson are good we'll see if the committee wants to give a bid to the fifth SEC team or the second ACC team. Or if the committee prefers Notre Dame over the fifth Big Ten team. It will be interesting to see it playing out.

That was a 10-2 have-not program that was only not 9-3 because LSU blew a 2-TD lead over them in Oxford in the 4th. And that LSU game was their only quality win of the season. They got soundly beaten by the only real contenders they played - Bama and UGA. And if the new format was in place in 2023, they STILL would be in….as would Mizzou, Georgia, and Alabama. That’s 4 SEC teams making the field in one of the weakest years for the league in some time, with LSU barely missing it and also not accounting for OU (also barely missed) and Texas (obviously in). If 4 teams in the field is the floor for the SEC (and I think it will be at worst case), then that’s a very favorable format for the league.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

They should have made it that the conference champ is guaranteed a playoff spot and left it at that. A top 4 seed is BS.

 

[Dawgg]

Are all of the games for the 12 going to be neutral? I guess I assumed 1st round would be on campus for the higher seed. Either way, are fans really going to travel that much?

Or is it an extension of the current bowl system and all that really matters is the tv audience?

My understanding is the first round games are in the home stadium of the higher seed. The second and third rounds are basically the New Year's Six bowls. The championship will be bid out every season like it is now.

So, let's say we had last year's results using next year's 5+7 format and conference affiliation, we'd have these qualifiers:
1 Michigan (champ)
2 Texas (champ)
3 Alabama (champ)
4 Florida State (champ)
5 Washington (at large)
6 Georgia (at large)
7 Ohio State (at large)
8 Oregon (at large)
9 Mizzou (at large)
10 Penn State (at large)
11 Ole Miss (at large)
12 Liberty (champ)

First round would be:
12 Liberty vs 5 Washington in Seattle
11 Ole Miss vs 6 Georgia in Athens
10 Penn State vs 7 Ohio State in Columbus
9 Mizzou vs 8 Oregon in Eugene

I haven't seen a true "bracket", so I feel like the matchups for the second round are fuzzy, but let's say the higher seeds won and are matched lowest seed to highest seed, then the second round would be:
Fiesta Bowl: 8 Oregon vs 1 Michigan
Peach Bowl: 7 Ohio State vs 2 Texas
Rose Bowl: 6 Georgia vs 3 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: 5 Washington vs 4 Florida State

Then, let's assume the higher seeds won and again we match higher to lower and the your semifinals are:
Orange Bowl: 1 Michigan vs 4 Florida State
Cotton Bowl: 2 Texas vs 3 Alabama

Then the higher seeds again would be:
National Championship (in Atlanta, GA): 1 Michigan vs 2 Texas