Jacksonville State and James Madison will go if there aren't enough 6-win teams, so there are essentially 13 spots remaining.
If State beats Ole Miss, we are guaranteed a bowl. And unless Florida beats FSU and SC beats Clemson, we will get one of the Group of 6 bowls, if we win. (Liberty, Music City, Dukes Mayo, Outback, Gator, Texas). A win likely puts us in Memphis, conventional wisdom would think. If State, Florida and SC all win, then Birmingham is in play.
So there are 13 bowl spots remaining. If we lose to Ole Miss and end up 5-7, our APR puts us in play to extend the bowl streak, but its dicey. And let me stress this, although we could technically end up in one of the SEC tie-ins, if we qualify as a 5-7 team, we do not have to end up in a traditional SEC bowl. (Although I feel that its likely Birmingham would want us)
Rice and Minnesota are guaranteed bowl games over us no matter what the result, so there are 11 spots. The Wake Forest (would be ahead in APR)/Syracuse (would have 6 wins) winner is ahead of us no matter what, so that leaves 10. The Army-Navy winner is at 6 wins so that's 9. We could only have 8 of these teams qualify. Here's the breakdown of teams ahead of us if we lose.
5-win teams likely to win
South Florida (Charlotte)
UCF (Houston)
Northern Illinois (Kent State)
Eastern Michigan (Buffalo)
Utah State (New Mexico)
Colorado State (Hawaii)
Old Dominion (Georgia State)
Louisiana (UL Monroe)
That's 8 right there. If all of the favorites win, we would be in if all the underdogs below lose. We certainly need as many upsets in this group as possible, because there is likely to be 1-2 upsets below.
5-win teams likely to lose
TCU (Oklahoma)
BYU (Oklahoma State)
Nebraska (Iowa)
Illinois (Northwestern)
Central Michigan (Toledo)
California (UCLA)
Washington State (Washington)
South Carolina (Clemson)
Florida (Florida State)
There are 9 teams that could take a spot if they pull an upset. Luckily, most of these, with the exception of Illinois-Northwestern and Cal-UCLA are big upsets, so we might get some help from this group.
If two of the underdogs win in the latter group to get to six wins, we would need two upsets in the top group. Georgia State could beat ODU, and New Mexico could certainly knock off Utah State. Other than those two, we're asking for a lot. Let's just beat those shitbirds.
If State beats Ole Miss, we are guaranteed a bowl. And unless Florida beats FSU and SC beats Clemson, we will get one of the Group of 6 bowls, if we win. (Liberty, Music City, Dukes Mayo, Outback, Gator, Texas). A win likely puts us in Memphis, conventional wisdom would think. If State, Florida and SC all win, then Birmingham is in play.
So there are 13 bowl spots remaining. If we lose to Ole Miss and end up 5-7, our APR puts us in play to extend the bowl streak, but its dicey. And let me stress this, although we could technically end up in one of the SEC tie-ins, if we qualify as a 5-7 team, we do not have to end up in a traditional SEC bowl. (Although I feel that its likely Birmingham would want us)
Rice and Minnesota are guaranteed bowl games over us no matter what the result, so there are 11 spots. The Wake Forest (would be ahead in APR)/Syracuse (would have 6 wins) winner is ahead of us no matter what, so that leaves 10. The Army-Navy winner is at 6 wins so that's 9. We could only have 8 of these teams qualify. Here's the breakdown of teams ahead of us if we lose.
5-win teams likely to win
South Florida (Charlotte)
UCF (Houston)
Northern Illinois (Kent State)
Eastern Michigan (Buffalo)
Utah State (New Mexico)
Colorado State (Hawaii)
Old Dominion (Georgia State)
Louisiana (UL Monroe)
That's 8 right there. If all of the favorites win, we would be in if all the underdogs below lose. We certainly need as many upsets in this group as possible, because there is likely to be 1-2 upsets below.
5-win teams likely to lose
TCU (Oklahoma)
BYU (Oklahoma State)
Nebraska (Iowa)
Illinois (Northwestern)
Central Michigan (Toledo)
California (UCLA)
Washington State (Washington)
South Carolina (Clemson)
Florida (Florida State)
There are 9 teams that could take a spot if they pull an upset. Luckily, most of these, with the exception of Illinois-Northwestern and Cal-UCLA are big upsets, so we might get some help from this group.
If two of the underdogs win in the latter group to get to six wins, we would need two upsets in the top group. Georgia State could beat ODU, and New Mexico could certainly knock off Utah State. Other than those two, we're asking for a lot. Let's just beat those shitbirds.
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