While it is disappointing that we are not hosting, its not completely unexpected. East Carolina and Arizona were the last two hosts, and its actually refreshing to see the committee reward Arizona for winning the Pac 12 regular season and conference tournament and get a host site despite the 31 RPI. Ive been following this for a long time and that is a rarity.
So where does that leave us?
The top 16 RPI teams eligible for the NCAAT that are not hosting are, in order:
Wake Forest
Indiana State
Duke
Dallas Baptist
San Diego
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
LSU
Alabama
Mississippi State
Southern Miss
UC Irvine
Nebraska
Louisiana Tech
Florida
Central Florida
Interestingly, Arizona is only ranked higher than UCF. Alabama and Florida are interesting, they could both see the 3-seed line, but they are true 2-seeds. We are sure to be a 2 seed, which gives us 11 possible locales:
North Carolina
Virginia
Clemson
Oregon State
East Carolina
Oklahoma
NC State
UCSB
Oklahoma State
Florida State
Arizona
In the past, the committee has used the following to determine where to send 2 seeds.
S-Curve
600 Mile Rule
SEC 2 vs SEC 1 Super Matchup
The above 3 for other teams
If you went by a true S-curve (which rarely happens), we would be seeded to the Clemson Regional. Florida State is -1 from a perfect S-curve, so watch for those two possibilities.
The 600 Mile Rule also gives us Clemson and Florida State, but Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are just outside that radius.
The SEC 2 vs SEC 1 Rule has us look at the SEC hosts: Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia. If Clemson is a Top 8 national seed, then they could be matched up with Georgia. East Carolina is likely to be the 16 national seed matched up with Tennessee, but that seems like a good place for Duke or Wake Forest. Arkansas and A&M are likely to be matched up with the Oklahoma schools. Kentucky seems to be the odd man out, and could end up with Oregon State.
If I were projecting, I would put us at Florida State with UCF dropping to a strong.3 seed. I also can't shake Clemson as a good possibility, as they will send South Carolina to NC State or UNC. I'd put about 70% odds on it being FSU or Clemson. The Oklahoma schools are next in line, and Tucson is going to need a 2 seed, so someone is going West.
40% Florida State
30% Clemson
20% Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
5% Arizona
5% One of the other 6
So where does that leave us?
The top 16 RPI teams eligible for the NCAAT that are not hosting are, in order:
Wake Forest
Indiana State
Duke
Dallas Baptist
San Diego
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
LSU
Alabama
Mississippi State
Southern Miss
UC Irvine
Nebraska
Louisiana Tech
Florida
Central Florida
Interestingly, Arizona is only ranked higher than UCF. Alabama and Florida are interesting, they could both see the 3-seed line, but they are true 2-seeds. We are sure to be a 2 seed, which gives us 11 possible locales:
North Carolina
Virginia
Clemson
Oregon State
East Carolina
Oklahoma
NC State
UCSB
Oklahoma State
Florida State
Arizona
In the past, the committee has used the following to determine where to send 2 seeds.
S-Curve
600 Mile Rule
SEC 2 vs SEC 1 Super Matchup
The above 3 for other teams
If you went by a true S-curve (which rarely happens), we would be seeded to the Clemson Regional. Florida State is -1 from a perfect S-curve, so watch for those two possibilities.
The 600 Mile Rule also gives us Clemson and Florida State, but Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are just outside that radius.
The SEC 2 vs SEC 1 Rule has us look at the SEC hosts: Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia. If Clemson is a Top 8 national seed, then they could be matched up with Georgia. East Carolina is likely to be the 16 national seed matched up with Tennessee, but that seems like a good place for Duke or Wake Forest. Arkansas and A&M are likely to be matched up with the Oklahoma schools. Kentucky seems to be the odd man out, and could end up with Oregon State.
If I were projecting, I would put us at Florida State with UCF dropping to a strong.3 seed. I also can't shake Clemson as a good possibility, as they will send South Carolina to NC State or UNC. I'd put about 70% odds on it being FSU or Clemson. The Oklahoma schools are next in line, and Tucson is going to need a 2 seed, so someone is going West.
40% Florida State
30% Clemson
20% Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
5% Arizona
5% One of the other 6
