A healthy Landon Sims and Stone Simmons

missouridawg

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Oct 6, 2009
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alters the outcome of how many games?

Feels like if we have Simmons and Beef in the pen. And Landon on Fridays, that we would be 7-8 games better than we are now.
 

ronpolk

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May 6, 2009
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Plus a healthy Hunt to start as our #2 guy like he was originally supposed be to. The pitching staff was ridiculously thin this year and that shouldn’t have happened. Not with the transfer portal to be way it is. But reality is the way the team was set up, an injury to someone like sims and Simmons was pretty major. If things go as planned, you have Smith, Johnson and Simmons all in the pen. It makes the makeup of the bullpen look drastically different, in a good way
 

Leeshouldveflanked

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Nov 12, 2016
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Doesn't solve our lack of timely hitting.....
Timely hitting was our major setback this year. Sims was 0-2… maybe we are a .500 SEC team with Sims and Simmons, but nowhere near a Regional Hosting team.
Also, our out of conference strength of schedule is laughable. That is one thing we do have some ability to control.
 

ronpolk

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Timely hitting was our major setback this year. Sims was 0-2… maybe we are a .500 SEC team with Sims and Simmons, but nowhere near a Regional Hosting team.
Also, our out of conference strength of schedule is laughable. That is one thing we do have some ability to control.

I agree… even at full health, this team was never going to be national seed, host type team.
 

MSUDC11

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I agree… even at full health, this team was never going to be national seed, host type team.

No, but if given the choice between what has actually happened and us being the 2 seed in Hattiesburg again, the second option doesn’t sound so bad. And it’s not that crazy to see a projected Top 10 team not be a host. Texas and LSU are having those kind of years currently.

The pitching injuries are the difference in this team being a dangerous 2 seed if healthy and now potentially not even making Hoover.
 

Go Budaw

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alters the outcome of how many games?

Feels like if we have Simmons and Beef in the pen. And Landon on Fridays, that we would be 7-8 games better than we are now.

I said when he got hurt that Sims by himself going down was going to cost us a minimum of 5-6 SEC wins. I stand by that. With him on Fridays and everyone else stepped down in the rotation, its 6-7 innings per weekend on average that we wouldn’t have to worry about from the thin bullpen. Simmons probably plays into that and protects enough leads to give us those W’s (and maybe a few more from the Sat / Sun guys).

I also said this was a 2-seed team at best even with a healthy Sims, and I stand by that too. You give us those 5-6 additional wins and we’re at 14-15 SEC wins minimum, maybe 16-17 best case. In either case, we’re on the 2/3 line due to the bad RPI / nonconference schedule, which still would have been a problem.

Long story short, this year should have been similar to the 2014 year after our 2013 run, but injuries made it much worse. Imagine the 2014 team if Ross Mitchell and Jonathan Holder were both done for the year in mid-March, then we also lose Lindgren for the year at the SEC schedule midway point. It would have been ugly.
 
Feb 23, 2008
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I don't even know if what ifs even matter with this team. When Sims was healthy,

he finished 0-2 while having 27k's to just 2 walks and only allowing 2 earned runs. That's just how this team has been since day 1. If it's not one thing, it's something else. One day it's hitting. Next day it's pitching. Next day it's dumb base running. On and on and on.
 
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johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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Pitchers get injured. Haven't 3-4 sec teams lost their ace

Definitely, and it's a fail by the coaches to have a pitching staff this thin. However, having a thin pitching staff that can't afford to have any injuries lose their two best pitchers is bad, but that's an understandable failure. If we were this bad and hadn't had key injuries, I'd be much more concerned.

I think the hitting is a bigger concern just because of how few people have gotten better. Anybody besides Mule and eventually Forsythe? Basically we had a freshman surprise to the upside, a transfer surprise to the upside. Did everybody either stagnate or regress at the plate? Surely I'm missing some other players that got better.
 

Go Budaw

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Definitely, and it's a fail by the coaches to have a pitching staff this thin. However, having a thin pitching staff that can't afford to have any injuries lose their two best pitchers is bad, but that's an understandable failure. If we were this bad and hadn't had key injuries, I'd be much more concerned.

I think the hitting is a bigger concern just because of how few people have gotten better. Anybody besides Mule and eventually Forsythe? Basically we had a freshman surprise to the upside, a transfer surprise to the upside. Did everybody either stagnate or regress at the plate? Surely I'm missing some other players that got better.

With the exception of the transfer portal maybe not being used as extensively for the pitching staff, us being thin there isn’t the fault of the current staff. It is mostly on Cannizzaro and the MLB draft getting some guys from 2019 and 2020 classes. And of course you aren’t going to just up and find a Landon Sims in the transfer portal anyway, so it was always going to be a major kick in the nuts when he went down. No way around it.

With the hitting, I haven’t checked the latest numbers but as of a week or two ago we were hovering at around the same number of runs per game in SEC play as last year. Yeager / Hines / Forsythe have all been positive surprises. Cumbest took a big step forward. Logan Tanner has hit for less power but more average. James seems to have been the same. Clark has basically been the same player as last year, but with his numbers projected out over the course of the full season where as he wasn’t a regular until late in the year last season. Hancock has been pretty much the same, but less clutch and not as adept at working counts and having plate discipline. We’ve regressed at the CF spot offensively with Rowdy being replaced by Davis / McGowan, but that’s about it. Pitching has been the much bigger problem.
 
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GhostOfJackie

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Apr 20, 2009
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We would be better if this team wasn't such a bad baseball team. Blaming what has happened on losing two pitchers is ignoring how bad we have been for most of the season. Losing two pitchers also didn't cause us to completely give up.
 

Go Budaw

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Pitchers get injured. Haven't 3-4 sec teams lost their ace

How many of those teams also:

- Had the best pitcher in the nation as their ace that they lost
- Lost a 1st round draft pick from their rotation the previous draft
- Also lost their closer
- Also lost their first arm out of the bullpen less than halfway through the SEC schedule
- Also had another weekend rotation guy battle nagging injuries all season; rendering him unavailable for the first half and mostly ineffective for the 2nd half.

I’m guessing zero.
 

msstate7

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Nov 27, 2008
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How many of those teams also:

- Had the best pitcher in the nation as their ace that they lost
- Lost a 1st round draft pick from their rotation the previous draft
- Also lost their closer
- Also lost their first arm out of the bullpen less than halfway through the SEC schedule
- Also had another weekend rotation guy battle nagging injuries all season; rendering him unavailable for the first half and mostly ineffective for the 2nd half.

I’m guessing zero.

Have some capable replacements. The sec era leader and the #3 era guy are freshmen pitchers at Tenn. We have juniors that can't throw strikes
 

Smoked Toag

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Have some capable replacements. The sec era leader and the #3 era guy are freshmen pitchers at Tenn. We have juniors that can't throw strikes
That's not a regular occurrence. But hey, good on Tennessee for getting lucky. Seems they got all the breaks this year.
 

msstate7

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That's not a regular occurrence. But hey, good on Tennessee for getting lucky. Seems they got all the breaks this year.

Their other starter is a sophomore, who was really good as a freshman last year. Seems they get "lucky" a lot
 

onewoof

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Mar 4, 2008
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Doesn't solve our lack of timely hitting.....

If anyone posting here does not get that mojo between pitching and hitting are DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL then you've obviously never played baseball at any competitive level. Ever.
 

aTotal360

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Nov 12, 2009
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If those 2 are healthy, we are repeating as national champs. Oh well...
 

8dog

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Can we at least find some other teams to reference? Continuing to compare everything we do to one great team seems unreasonable
 

msstate7

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Can we at least find some other teams to reference? Continuing to compare everything we do to one great team seems unreasonable

We were sold on lemonis being an elite recruiter, so I'm comparing him to an elite recruiter. He may prove to be just that... hopefully next year.

ETA... 5 of the top 10 era guys in sec are freshmen.
 
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Go Budaw

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Have some capable replacements. The sec era leader and the #3 era guy are freshmen pitchers at Tenn. We have juniors that can't throw strikes

And we’d still need 3 more “capable replacements” even if both of those UT guys were on our team. Face it, we got hit harder with pitching injuries than just about anyone in the country.
 

BhamDawg91

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Oct 27, 2012
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Doesn't solve our lack of timely hitting.....

Again? Last year we scored 374 runs and gave up 212.
This year 365 scored and 309 given up. That almost 100 more runs given up this year or 2 more per game.

There were 12 of 52 games last year decided by 2 runs or less.
17 this year.

Please explain again how timely hitting keeps us from giving up over 100 more runs this year. I will hang up and listen.
 
Feb 23, 2008
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When will this Tennessee just got lucky narrative end? We need to just admit

their head coach has run circles around us on the recruiting trail and apparently they have assistants that can actually develop. Let's look at their past 3 years since everyone thinks they're just lucky. 2019 had 40 wins. 2020 they went 15-2 in a shortened season which included wins against Texas Tech and Stanford. Then 50-18 last year and they're 45-7 to this point this year. Luck has nothing to do with it.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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With the exception of the transfer portal maybe not being used as extensively for the pitching staff, us being thin there isn’t the fault of the current staff. It is mostly on Cannizzaro and the MLB draft getting some guys from 2019 and 2020 classes. And of course you aren’t going to just up and find a Landon Sims in the transfer portal anyway, so it was always going to be a major kick in the nuts when he went down. No way around it.
I intentionally left it at "coaches" rather than Lemonis. Not sure how much blame Lemonis should shoulder the blame. Can't blame him at all for our junior class I don't think. Realistically any sophomores would have depending on finding some late bloomers or overlooked players, or cashing in on the fact that more players than usual went to college. Really sucks we werent' in better position for that class. That's probably going to hurt us for next year too.

With the hitting, I haven’t checked the latest numbers but as of a week or two ago we were hovering at around the same number of runs per game in SEC play as last year. Yeager / Hines / Forsythe have all been positive surprises. Cumbest took a big step forward.
Those are the four players I noted, and two of them the staff has only had for a year.

Logan Tanner has hit for less power but more average. James seems to have been the same. Clark has basically been the same player as last year, but with his numbers projected out over the course of the full season where as he wasn’t a regular until late in the year last season. Hancock has been pretty much the same, but less clutch and not as adept at working counts and having plate discipline.
I read that a senior didn't progress and maybe regressed slightly (which is understandable; lots of players are who they are by their senior year), two juniors (Tanner & James) not get better (which is also not a red flag, but considering how limited their freshmen year was, would have hoped they'd still get a good jump, although to be fair, James stats actually are up some), and then a true sophomore that hasn't gotten better, which is a little more troubling, although obviously the sophomore slump wouldn't be a term if it didn't happen.

So nothing individually that is a huge red flag, but it's concerning that we have so many returning players and none of them got noticeably better at the plate other than Mule and I guess Forsythe.

We’ve regressed at the CF spot offensively with Rowdy being replaced by Davis / McGowan, but that’s about it. Pitching has been the much bigger problem.
I'm not worried about new players not being as good as the people leaving the national championship team. That was a given. I'm worried about the fact that so few of our players seem to have gotten better at the plate when we had lots of candidates as far as young players an/or players that didn't have as much experience because of the limited 2020 season.
 

047Dog

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Can we at least find some other teams to reference? Continuing to compare everything we do to one great team seems unreasonable

So y’all claim all the time that MSU invented college baseball yet you are getting your feelings hurt because they are trying to compare MSU to mighty Tennessee?
 

kired

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Aug 22, 2008
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Simmons alone probably adds 5 wins.

What did Simmons do to make you believe that? He scared us enough we had to go with Sims for a 4 inning save against ND in the super. Then did his best to give V-Tech a chance to come back after our miracle 8th inning. He would have given us another arm and more depth, but he wasn't going to be a shut down closer. We might even have moved him to starter after Sims went down instead of trying Stinnett.
 

jdbulldog

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Oct 27, 2007
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We would be better if this team wasn't such a bad baseball team. Blaming what has happened on losing two pitchers is ignoring how bad we have been for most of the season. Losing two pitchers also didn't cause us to completely give up.

Our coaches and players are the only ones who know if we gave up or not.
 

BhamDawg91

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Oct 27, 2012
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we scored 4.62 runs per game last year in games decided by 2 runs or less. This year we scored 5.68 runs.
There is an even more noticeable difference if we discuss 1 run games. 5.93 vs 4.5 last year.
We are actually scoring more runs in closer games this year.

This year We lost 8 games by 1 run. We are giving up 2 more runs per game.
Are we having the same discussion if we are 33-19 instead?

So to answer the question. 8
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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We were sold on lemonis being an elite recruiter, so I'm comparing him to an elite recruiter. He may prove to be just that... hopefully next year.

ETA... 5 of the top 10 era guys in sec are freshmen.

Elite recruiters still have down years. I think it's legitimate to criticize Lemonis for being 9-18 instead of 14-13. The only excuse is that for baseball you can't start recruiting most elite guys in high school; they've already committed and tend to stay committed. And that because of that, he wasn't able to build depth to be able to handle injuries to his two top pitchers. I honestly don't know how complete that excuse is. It seems legitimate, but maybe just how bad we are after our top few pitchers is something that he bears some blame for. But regardless, it's probably not legitimate to complain that we're not equivalent to the best SEC team in a down year.
 

johnson86-1

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Aug 22, 2012
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we scored 4.62 runs per game last year in games decided by 2 runs or less. This year we scored 5.68 runs.
There is an even more noticeable difference if we discuss 1 run games. 5.93 vs 4.5 last year.
We are actually scoring more runs in closer games this year.

This year We lost 8 games by 1 run. We are giving up 2 more runs per game.
Are we having the same discussion if we are 33-19 instead?

So to answer the question. 8

For how many runs we're scoring in close games, how much of that is that last year our pitchign and defense tended to shut down bad teams, so our high scoring games were more likely to be blowouts? Haven't paid attention to our midweek games, but if we have a lot more close midweek games, then it would presumably push our scoring average in close games up.
 

onewoof

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So y’all claim all the time that MSU invented college baseball yet you are getting your feelings hurt because they are trying to compare MSU to mighty Tennessee?

One great regular season. Man what a year.
 

msstate7

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Nov 27, 2008
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Elite recruiters still have down years. I think it's legitimate to criticize Lemonis for being 9-18 instead of 14-13. The only excuse is that for baseball you can't start recruiting most elite guys in high school; they've already committed and tend to stay committed. And that because of that, he wasn't able to build depth to be able to handle injuries to his two top pitchers. I honestly don't know how complete that excuse is. It seems legitimate, but maybe just how bad we are after our top few pitchers is something that he bears some blame for. But regardless, it's probably not legitimate to complain that we're not equivalent to the best SEC team in a down year.

That best sec team was built in 1 less year than lemonis has been here. Tenn hadn't been to a regional in 14 years when Vitello got there, but he won 50 games in year 4. If he had enough time to build a winner in year 4, I think lemonis has too considering we'd been to 2 straight supers when he was hired. Now lemonis has the ultimate trump card in the natty though, which is why I'm just pissed about this season and not calling for his head. I won't even do it next year if we suck as long as I'm seeing young pieces building up to something
 

onewoof

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Lol, they were in the CWS last year. He took over a program that hadn't been to a regional in 14 years, and he has a better winning % there than lemonis does here

Not in the CWS. 0 and 2. Shouldn't have been there.
 
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