Against my better judgment (and just for fun) I'm going to allow myself to imagine that we run the table and ask the following:

[PaleoorthoCock]

Which teams that we need to lose for us to have any chance of making the playoffs are most likely to do so given their upcoming matchups? What is the most likely path for us to get there, even if it's just not very likely? I know: "Don't get ahead of yourself." "This is just extremely unlikely." "Just worry about Missouri." I know. And I agree 100%. Truly. I agree it's absurd to speculate. But indulge me for a minute on a lazy-ish Tuesday.

 

[3USC1801]

I’m not sure why you are apologetic. There’s no need. USC has worked themselves into a possible position for consideration so it’s only natural to contemplate the options.

 

[PaleoorthoCock]

Duly noted. I'm probably just trying to make a preemptive strike against getting scolded for entertaining these ideas. Lol! But it is enjoyable to be in a place where it can at least be speculated about.

 

[3USC1801]

Frankly, there are so many scenarios, I don’t know where to begin. It’s not just about those who lose and fall out of consideration, it’s also teams who are slightly below the cut-off line who might get hot and win a string of games to finish well.

 

[will110]

Frankly, there are so many scenarios, I don’t know where to begin. It’s not just about those who lose and fall out of consideration, it’s also teams who are slightly below the cut-off line who might get hot and win a string of games to finish well.

I think this exercise would be a bit easier to project after Saturday. Not just because the we (hopefully) won't have stumbled against Missouri, but also because then we'll have a better idea of other teams' chances. Too many games left now to speculate with so many teams in front of us.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I saw a breakdown on Twitter of one scenario that would need to play out. Let's just say, it's the longest of long shots.

I'm ok with not making it, though. I don't really want USC to become the embodiment of the idiocy I feared would come to pass with CFP expansion.

 

[3USC1801]

I saw a breakdown on Twitter of one scenario that would need to play out. Let's just say, it's the longest of long shots.

I'm ok with not making it, though. I don't really want USC to become the embodiment of the idiocy I feared would come to pass with CFP expansion.

I would agree that I’d be okay with not making it. Maybe a little disappointed given the difficulty of our schedule and the weakness of other teams’ schedules. But it would be fun to win out the rest of the games—this team would surely get national attention even so.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I would agree that I’d be okay with not making it. Maybe a little disappointed given the difficulty of our schedule and the weakness of other teams’ schedules. But it would be fun to win out the rest of the games—this team would surely get national attention even so.

Oh, yeah, definitely hoping to win out, of course. A 10-win season would be epic

Regarding the CFP, when expansion was announced, I was adamantly opposed to the notion that 3-loss teams might sneak in. Can't change my view on that.

And, if we ever do make it, I want to make it on our own merit, not because a bunch of other teams lost down the stretch. We have the distinction of being the only 3-loss team in the SECCG. I'd prefer to make the CFP straight up.

 

[PaleoorthoCock]

Here's a recent take on it (College Football Network). Seems like I saw a slightly more optimistic (though still a bit skeptical) take on it in another source a few days ago, which likely reflects what was said above: A long shot, but still just a bit too early to get a realistic read on this.

23) South Carolina Gamecocks

Playoff Probability: 4.11% (was %)

At this point, South Carolina is just set to play spoiler for the teams on their schedule. Sure, they have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs, but as a long shot at this rate, how sweet would it be to knock Missouri out and all but ensure Clemson doesn’t make it?

Crazier things have happened, and yes, they’re alive for the playoffs, but three wins down the stretch is still an incredibly successful season for SC.

• Missouri: 52.8%
• Wofford: 99.9%
• @ Clemson: 34.9%

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

 

[SouthernBelly]

1. Win out
2. A few more upsets
3. A few teams taken hostage by South American drug lords.

I see all of this as plausible.

 

[will110]

Oh, yeah, definitely hoping to win out, of course. A 10-win season would be epic

Regarding the CFP, when expansion was announced, I was adamantly opposed to the notion that 3-loss teams might sneak in. Can't change my view on that.

And, if we ever do make it, I want to make it on our own merit, not because a bunch of other teams lost down the stretch. We have the distinction of being the only 3-loss team in the SECCG. I'd prefer to make the CFP straight up.

I'm confident 3 loss teams making the 12 team CFP won't be out of the ordinary. It might not happen every year, but it'll happen fairly regularly.

I still don't see Carolina making the CFP this year, but I'm all for winning out and making things interesting.

 

[will110]

Oh, yeah, definitely hoping to win out, of course. A 10-win season would be epic

Regarding the CFP, when expansion was announced, I was adamantly opposed to the notion that 3-loss teams might sneak in. Can't change my view on that.

And, if we ever do make it, I want to make it on our own merit, not because a bunch of other teams lost down the stretch. We have the distinction of being the only 3-loss team in the SECCG. I'd prefer to make the CFP straight up.

I went back to check the final regular season AP poll to see where the first 3 loss teams stacked up. 2023 was the first time since 2015 that at least one 3-loss team did not finish in the top 12.

In 2022, the last regular season AP poll had two 3-loss teams: #7 Utah and #11 Kansas State.
In 2021, #10 Utah had 3 losses.
In 2019, #9 Auburn and #11 Wisconsin had 3 losses.
In 2018, #9 Washington, #10 Florida, #11 LSU, and #13 Penn State had 3 losses.
In 2017, #7 Auburn had 3 losses.
In 2016, #8 Wisconsin, #9 Southern Cal, #10 Florida State, and #11 Colorado had 3 losses.

 

[gamecock stock]

The great thing about the expanded college playoff is that it gives meaning to the rest of our schedule, as long as we keep winning. Just think if we had the old 4-team playoff, there would be no dreaming. People now are excited about the possibility.

 

[3USC1801]

I went back to check the final regular season AP poll to see where the first 3 loss teams stacked up. 2023 was the first time since 2015 that at least one 3-loss team did not finish in the top 12.

In 2022, the last regular season AP poll had two 3-loss teams: #7 Utah and #11 Kansas State.
In 2021, #10 Utah had 3 losses.
In 2019, #9 Auburn and #11 Wisconsin had 3 losses.
In 2018, #9 Washington, #10 Florida, #11 LSU, and #13 Penn State had 3 losses.
In 2017, #7 Auburn had 3 losses.
In 2016, #8 Wisconsin, #9 Southern Cal, #10 Florida State, and #11 Colorado had 3 losses.

I just saw on ESPN where a talking head referred to what you compiled. I didn’t realize there were so many (13) 3-loss teams ranked in the top 10.

 

[18IsTheMan]

The great thing about the expanded college playoff is that it gives meaning to the rest of our schedule, as long as we keep winning. Just think if we had the old 4-team playoff, there would be no dreaming. People now are excited about the possibility.

It doesn't move the needle for me, but I think expansion was bogus. I am just as excited as everyone else but not about anything connected to the CFP. Even without the CFP, the remainder of our schedule has great significance for a whole host of reasons.

 

[will110]

The great thing about the expanded college playoff is that it gives meaning to the rest of our schedule, as long as we keep winning. Just think if we had the old 4-team playoff, there would be no dreaming. People now are excited about the possibility.

Personally the (extremely) remote chance of making the CFP isn't why I'm excited about this season. The chance to finish strong, to beat Clemson, to have a shot at double digit wins - all of these are why I'm excited/enjoying the second half of this season. If we finish strong, beating Missouri and Clemson, then we're talking about one of the best seasons in school history.

The CFP is like icing on the cake if it somehow happens.

 

[will110]

It doesn't move the needle for me, but I think expansion was bogus. I am just as excited as everyone else but not about anything connected to the CFP. Even without the CFP, the remainder of our schedule has great significance for a whole host of reasons.

Are you just going to skip watching the college football playoff games?

 

[Uscg1984]

Which teams that we need to lose for us to have any chance of making the playoffs are most likely to do so given their upcoming matchups?

We will need some to lose, but we'll also need some to win/finish strong. Unfortunately, that includes Clemson. It would have helped us if Clemson wins the ACC.

 

[vacock]

I’m expecting a final four like basketball with Frank Martin. In other words, get in the playoffs by sheer luck and get to the semis. Ha

 

[gamecock stock]

I understand the sentiment of those not excited about the expanded college football system, those not wanting an even more expanded 16-team playoff (something I think is inevitable in the near-term) and those not excited about Carolina's current positioning as it relates to the college football playoffs. All I can say is that is like guys' opinions on what makes a woman hot. We all differ. It's whatever makes our respective boats float.

It will be interesting to see what the TV ratings are for the expanded college football playoffs compared to that of the college football bowls.

 

[WendellGee]

Not a chance of making the playoffs. Georgia, based on strength of schedule, is the only team in the country who could make it as a 3 loss team.

 

[gamecock stock]

Currently 21st. Impressive. We won't get in. But if we can finish these last 3 games like we have the previous 3, we can make things interesting.

 

[muscleknight]

Sabotage the Clemson busses so they can't drive around to the hill causing them to forfeit

 

[Benjdan]

I’m already calling it. LSU will be the 12th team in while we are left out. Assuming both teams win out that is. The claim will be that they “won” the head to head matchup but we all know it’s about the “brand”

 

[Coastal Gamecock]

The great thing about the expanded college playoff is that it gives meaning to the rest of our schedule, as long as we keep winning. Just think if we had the old 4-team playoff, there would be no dreaming. People now are excited about the possibility.

I was against the 12, but yes, it is way more exciting now. I was scared it would become like the NFL, but 12 is still a small % of FBS teams, unlike the NFL where nearly half the teams make it

 

[Cackmandu]

Probably already said, but we just need to be the best 3 loss team out there at the end of the season and see where we line up against the other three loss teams, our three losses are pretty salty competition! Plus you might have a conference championship loser that I would think would get consideration over us with three losses, it would just depend on who their other two losses are against. Notre Dame should not be considered until they join a conference!

 

[18IsTheMan]

Are you just going to skip watching the college football playoff games?

I'm sure I won't watch all of them because they won't all be good matchups.

But I also won't play along with the delusion that a team finishing 10-2 last year and missing out on the 4-team CFP is any better this year when they still finished 10-2 but made the 12-team CFP.

I reject the dumbing down of society and lowering of standards wherever I see it.

 

[will110]

I'm sure I won't watch all of them because they won't all be good matchups.

But I also won't play along with the delusion that a team finishing 10-2 last year and missing out on the 4-team CFP is any better this year when they still finished 10-2 but made the 12-team CFP.

I reject the dumbing down of society and lowering of standards wherever I see it.

I'm not a fan of lowering standards either, but I have a hard time calling college football playoff expansion an example of the dumbing down of society.

First of all, college football is for entertainment purposes only. It has no greater meaning than that. This isn't redoing the SAT to make scores higher, or eliminating test scores from college admissions, or getting rid of physical standards to join the military because not enough people can pass. This is (for fans, at least) purely entertainment. It's meaningless beyond that.

Second, this isn't some radical change that's never been done before. Every other football league in the world at any level (that I know of) has a playoff system. FCS playoffs have existed since 1978, going from 4 teams originally to 24 teams today. It expanded to 12 teams in 1982, so FCS football has had at least the current expanded CFP system for over 40 years. The Division II and III playoffs have existed since 1973. High school football at every level in every state has a playoff system. The NFL has had multi-team playoffs every year since 1967.

Ultimately, the expanded CFP is still one of the most exclusive playoff systems out there: there are 134 FBS schools, so only 9% make the playoffs. 44% of NFL teams make the playoffs. 19% of FCS teams make the playoffs. 17% of D2 teams make the playoffs. 16% of D3 teams make the playoffs.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I'm not a fan of lowering standards either, but I have a hard time calling college football playoff expansion an example of the dumbing down of society.

First of all, college football is for entertainment purposes only. It has no greater meaning than that. This isn't redoing the SAT to make scores higher, or eliminating test scores from college admissions, or getting rid of physical standards to join the military because not enough people can pass. This is (for fans, at least) purely entertainment. It's meaningless beyond that.

Second, this isn't some radical change that's never been done before. Every other football league in the world at any level (that I know of) has a playoff system. FCS playoffs have existed since 1978, going from 4 teams originally to 24 teams today. It expanded to 12 teams in 1982, so FCS football has had at least the current expanded CFP system for over 40 years. The Division II and III playoffs have existed since 1973. High school football at every level in every state has a playoff system. The NFL has had multi-team playoffs every year since 1967.

Ultimately, the expanded CFP is still one of the most exclusive playoff systems out there: there are 134 FBS schools, so only 9% make the playoffs. 44% of NFL teams make the playoffs. 19% of FCS teams make the playoffs. 17% of D2 teams make the playoffs. 16% of D3 teams make the playoffs.

But you're already seeing it this year. Fan bases chirping about likely making the CFP when their team's record is absolutely no better than it was last year.

Actually, what I would love more than anything is for a 3-loss Bama to get in and win the title.

 

[will110]

But you're already seeing it this year. Fan bases chirping about likely making the CFP when their team's record is absolutely no better than it was last year.

Actually, what I would love more than anything is for a 3-loss Bama to get in and win the title.

I mean that was obviously always going to happen. You've got a 12 team playoff now, so teams with previously inferior records will make the expanded playoff.

Obviously the expansion was purely for financial gain for the schools and conferences, but for the fans it's more entertainment. In what world was South Carolina football ever going to be in the conversation for a top 4 spot? Same thing for Boise State or Indiana or BYU. In what world was it ever reasonable for an undefeated power 4 champion to NOT make the playoffs? (I did agree with the decision to leave FSU out last year, and I would have agreed even if Travis hadn't gotten hurt.)

The expanded playoff makes things more interesting for more fanbases.

Is this new system better than the traditional system pre-2014 where bowl games mattered and 10 win seasons were considered huge successes in and of themselves? Probably not. But this is a heck of a lot better than the 4 team playoff where bowl games didn't matter and players opted out of iconic games like the Rose Bowl.