Another OSB thread

[Grove Sh*tter]

The price of 7/16" OSB at Starkville Lowe's sprinted from$20/ sheet to $52 a sheet in late winter. About 3 weeks ago it fell to $42, then to $38 in a week. It almost instantly went back to $42. This morning it has fallen to $33.

Is this solely bc of interest rates? Will it ever get back to$15-20 this summer? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Uncle Ruckus]

We are in the process of completing a construction loan to build. Hoping to hit that sweet spot when prices are lowering while the interest rates are rising. Then when they creep back down again (not as low as they were) refi with a lower rate and shorter term. Hopefully.

 

[dorndawg]

The price of 7/16" OSB at Starkville Lowe's sprinted from$20/ sheet to $52 a sheet in late winter. About 3 weeks ago it fell to $42, then to $38 in a week. It almost instantly went back to $42. This morning it has fallen to $33.

Is this solely bc of interest rates? Will it ever get back to$15-20 this summer? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

JoeLee is the panel expert, but you're guaranteed not to get back to $15 osb this summer. Interest rates play a role but ultimately the theme is higher for longer for all forest products. Lumber has fell 30-50% (depending on the exact item) since March but is still WELL above pre-Covid all-time highs. It'll likely fall some more the back half of '22.

 

[PooPopsBaldHead]

Yep. The new floor for the OSB mills will be $500-600 per MSF (1,000 square feet for the non industry folks) is my guess. That is $16-$20 per sheet wholesale before freight. Any less than that and they will curtail production.

With that said, box stores like Lowe's and Home Depot could dump some wood this summer. I imagine they beefed up their contracts over the last 2 years and the first thing I see dying in the construction world is DIY. I imagine everyone is tired of home projects and will travel as much as possible this summer. No time and money left for working around the house.

Final thing to watch is hurricane season. You want to see OSB go nuts again, wait until a hurricane starts barreling towards S Fla or Houston. Everyone in the industry will buy a years worth of OSB in a week thinking they won't be able to get it if the storm is bad.


Overall, I think we set a new floor for OSB that translates to the $20-$30 range per sheet of 7/16 OSB at the box stores.

Hopefully DawgsAndSaints (I think that's his handle) jumps into the conversation. Pretty sure he's at a southern plywood mill. I'll be interested to hear his thoughts.