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Anyone following Hurricane Lee? Should I be worried here in the suburbs of NJ?

BobPSU92

BobPSU92

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A model I saw on weather.com shows it will turn north while still over the Atlantic. It may miss us.
 
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PSU87

PSU87

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GreggK said:
Irene and Sandy left its mark on my psyche and I am starting to get anxious about this one!

www.dailymail.co.uk

NYC and Boston brace for Hurricane Lee: Storm could slam East Coast

Hurricane Lee was 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday night. By next weekend, the storm - currently a Category 4, the first of the season - could be approaching New York.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
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GreggK....
Being a Florida resident, I watch these things very, very closely.

If you want more info than you could ever want, check out the Storm2k forums.

In my model watching, i have only seen one single ensemble member (that is one single member of an overall model, not the full model) come anywhere near NY/NJ.

That said, this far out, a lot could change so stay vigilant.
 
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Bwifan

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GreggK said:
Irene and Sandy left its mark on my psyche and I am starting to get anxious about this one!

www.dailymail.co.uk

NYC and Boston brace for Hurricane Lee: Storm could slam East Coast

Hurricane Lee was 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands on Thursday night. By next weekend, the storm - currently a Category 4, the first of the season - could be approaching New York.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
Click to expand...

No other than large waves (NJ could see 20+ft waves) and rip currents. (Say good bye to the beach replenishment projects that put sand on the beach) The approaching frontal passage will steer the hurricane more north/northeast from its current NW path. This set up is completely different than Sandy that had a negatively tilted trough that gave Sandy the window to be pulled right back into the coast. Stay aware for any changes but at this point unless you own beach front property there is no need for concern or panic.
Edit: Forgot to include this will not be a Cat 5 when it accelerates north after being scooped up by the frontal passing, I expect somewhere around a Cat 3 if it where to hit Nova Scotia at this point.
 
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Woodpecker

Woodpecker

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Bkmtnittany1 said:
Better be dry...gonna be in Avalon on Monday! Concord and Windrift...LOOK OUT!
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Your problem won't be from Lee
 
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PSU87

PSU87

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PSU87

PSU87

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dcf4psu said:
It's struggling to remain a hurricane this morning by the loops of it: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL132023&band=07&length=24
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Definitely struggling this morning and I suspect it will be Cat2 or maybe even Cat1 at the next NHC advisory. It is dealing with some unexpected wind shear.

But.... still has a long way to go over open water, water with very high surface temps. While I don't see it getting back to Cat5, intensification is likely. Also, remains to be seen what the unexpected weakening does to the model runs.

Still most likely not a US landfall, but long way to go.
 
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PSU87

PSU87

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And just like that, the latest Euro says not so fast New Jersey and New England
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GreggK

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PSU87 said:
And just like that, the latest Euro says not so fast New Jersey and New England
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It’s the rain that scares me. We moved into our new house the day of Irene and I’m still doing water mitigation. I have a company coming on Monday to help with drainage.

as we speak, we have some big hail hitting us here in NJ 🥴
 
PSU87

PSU87

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GreggK said:
It’s the rain that scares me. We moved into our new house the day of Irene and I’m still doing water mitigation. I have a company coming on Monday to help with drainage.

as we speak, we have some big hail hitting us here in NJ 🥴
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Luckily, the east side of Atlantic hurricanes is almost invariably the "dirtier" side, and you won't be getting that.

And remember this is only one run of one model. Long way to go. Exactly when it makes its turn will be big. A US landfall for a storm that started its recurve east of 70W longitude would be a historical rarity.

Rain from these things is a lot of times a function of forward speed...just hope it doesn't hover or take its sweet time passing by.

Personal thought, and full disclosure, I am in no way a pro met: gonna be far enough offshore from you when it passes you by.

Stay safe....
 
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