If you have paid any attention at all to Alabama under Nate Oats, you know the drill. Threes and layups, lots of points. That's the case again this year, but the results are a little funny.
Bama is 10-5. All the losses are Quad 1. Purdue and Arizona are Final Four level teams. Creighton was thought to be near that level, and maybe they eventually will be. Ohio State and Clemson? Coaches were on warm seats to start the year, they both started strong but now they are fading in a so-so Big 10/ACC so those two losses aren't looking great. Regardless, all five of those are projected tournament teams as of today. But find me a really good win on here. Indiana State at home? Someone from the MVC has to go the the tournament and maybe it will be them, but how good is that win? South Carolina at home? That's a Q2 win. Oregon on a neutral? Oregon is about as bubbly as a team can be this time of year. Just not much there to be honest. You can be sure this is a Quad 1 win they desperately want to get. (Spare me the comments about our three losses. We all know them.) While the computers love Bama (8 at KenPom, 4 at Torvik), the humans don't. Unranked in both polls and currently sitting at a 7 seed on Bracket Matrix (we are a 10).
It should come as no surprise that Bama measures out as elite offensively. They are top 10 nationally in points per game, threes attempted and made per game, 3 pt %, and 3 pt rate (meaning the percentage of their shots that are threes). They are top 25ish in FG%, bench points, fast break points, and all three of free throws attempted, made and %. You don't average 91 ppg by accident.
Defensively it's been maybe good, but not great. They are 241 in points allowed (74 ppg), but they are a top 40 team in tempo so they play with more possessions in every game so giving up more points is understandable. Pretty average in FG % defense (124th), but 70th in 3 pt defense. They don't force a lot of turnovers but they are top 75ish in blocking shots. They are top 50 in defensive rebounds and rebounds per game, but there's not an elite rebounder on the team. KenPom and Torvik have them in the 50s in their defensive rankings.
Last year we actually played fairly well defensively against them. In the home game, we turned them over 19 times and yielded a somewhat pedestrian 78 points. We just couldn't match them offensively and lost by 11. In the road game, we really could have won. They were only 5-28 from three and scored only 66 points, but again we were dismal offensively and lost by three. We come into tomorrow's game top 10 in the country in three point defense and top 30 in overall FG% defense. We know how unlikely it is that we win a shootout with them, so it seems obvious that our best chance to pull this one off is to hold them well below their average. Maybe low 70s is the target? I feel like we might be able to get to 75 if things go well.
Mark Sears is probably the most familiar name. He's elevated his game this year and leads them at just over 20 ppg. Two transfers - Aaron Estrada and Grant Nelson - are also getting double digits ppg. Seven more dudes get between 4.5-9.5 ppg. A few of them have the potential to have big games, probably Griffin most likely. As mentioned earlier, everyone rebounds on this team. Six guys between 3.5-5.5 boards per game. They are deep and have plenty of size. They do foul a lot but they have a deep bench.
If we had lost Wednesday, I would feel terrible about this game, but the big home win has me feeling better. Anytime you play Bama (at least under Oats) there is the potential to get blown out. If they have several guys tearing it up from 3, then we are probably in trouble. But let's count on our defense to come through again, and for us to find a third scorer to go with Tolu and Hubbard. Feels like that is going to be a continuing story of the season. I'll also put some stock in this being a road game. Bama's only played two true road games, the Creighton loss was one, and a three point win over Vandy was the other. Let's make The Hump be a factor!
Bama is 10-5. All the losses are Quad 1. Purdue and Arizona are Final Four level teams. Creighton was thought to be near that level, and maybe they eventually will be. Ohio State and Clemson? Coaches were on warm seats to start the year, they both started strong but now they are fading in a so-so Big 10/ACC so those two losses aren't looking great. Regardless, all five of those are projected tournament teams as of today. But find me a really good win on here. Indiana State at home? Someone from the MVC has to go the the tournament and maybe it will be them, but how good is that win? South Carolina at home? That's a Q2 win. Oregon on a neutral? Oregon is about as bubbly as a team can be this time of year. Just not much there to be honest. You can be sure this is a Quad 1 win they desperately want to get. (Spare me the comments about our three losses. We all know them.) While the computers love Bama (8 at KenPom, 4 at Torvik), the humans don't. Unranked in both polls and currently sitting at a 7 seed on Bracket Matrix (we are a 10).
It should come as no surprise that Bama measures out as elite offensively. They are top 10 nationally in points per game, threes attempted and made per game, 3 pt %, and 3 pt rate (meaning the percentage of their shots that are threes). They are top 25ish in FG%, bench points, fast break points, and all three of free throws attempted, made and %. You don't average 91 ppg by accident.
Defensively it's been maybe good, but not great. They are 241 in points allowed (74 ppg), but they are a top 40 team in tempo so they play with more possessions in every game so giving up more points is understandable. Pretty average in FG % defense (124th), but 70th in 3 pt defense. They don't force a lot of turnovers but they are top 75ish in blocking shots. They are top 50 in defensive rebounds and rebounds per game, but there's not an elite rebounder on the team. KenPom and Torvik have them in the 50s in their defensive rankings.
Last year we actually played fairly well defensively against them. In the home game, we turned them over 19 times and yielded a somewhat pedestrian 78 points. We just couldn't match them offensively and lost by 11. In the road game, we really could have won. They were only 5-28 from three and scored only 66 points, but again we were dismal offensively and lost by three. We come into tomorrow's game top 10 in the country in three point defense and top 30 in overall FG% defense. We know how unlikely it is that we win a shootout with them, so it seems obvious that our best chance to pull this one off is to hold them well below their average. Maybe low 70s is the target? I feel like we might be able to get to 75 if things go well.
Mark Sears is probably the most familiar name. He's elevated his game this year and leads them at just over 20 ppg. Two transfers - Aaron Estrada and Grant Nelson - are also getting double digits ppg. Seven more dudes get between 4.5-9.5 ppg. A few of them have the potential to have big games, probably Griffin most likely. As mentioned earlier, everyone rebounds on this team. Six guys between 3.5-5.5 boards per game. They are deep and have plenty of size. They do foul a lot but they have a deep bench.
If we had lost Wednesday, I would feel terrible about this game, but the big home win has me feeling better. Anytime you play Bama (at least under Oats) there is the potential to get blown out. If they have several guys tearing it up from 3, then we are probably in trouble. But let's count on our defense to come through again, and for us to find a third scorer to go with Tolu and Hubbard. Feels like that is going to be a continuing story of the season. I'll also put some stock in this being a road game. Bama's only played two true road games, the Creighton loss was one, and a three point win over Vandy was the other. Let's make The Hump be a factor!
