Basketball Prospectus previews the SEC Tournament...

[Uncle Leo]

Ken Pomeroy previews the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC tournaments.

He gives us a 40% chance of reaching the final. 16% of winning it all.

 

[patdog]

nm

 

[Maroon Eagle]

<font color="#FF0000"><font color="#FF0000">For the second straight season, Mississippi State enters the SEC Tournament as a team not getting as much attention as it deserves. This season, they'll end up in the NCAA Tournament, and a strong performance in Atlanta will give them the type of seed (four or five) with which they could do some damage.</font></font>

<font color="#000000">I think five is more likely if we win.</font>

 

[Coach34]

that would be a battle

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Other than the 5/12 curse....4 and 5 play in round two anyway if they both win.

 

[thunderclap]

is simply so we'll get that 4 or 5 seed. If we continue to play together, like we've been playing for the last few weeks, I seriously believe we could make a run with that high a seed.

 

[VegasDawg13]

who wants to win the SEC tournament for the sake of winning the SEC tournament?

Obviously we all want us to win it, but it seems like these days everyone is singularly focused on the NCAAT, treating anything we accomplish within the conference as just a means to better position ourselves in the tournament.

 

[patdog]

Per Wikipedia:

Since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed # has played a total of 92 first-round games.</p> [list type=decimal] [*]The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 92 times (100%). [*]The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 88 times (96%). [*]The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 77 times (84%). [*]The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 74 times (80%). [*]The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 63 times (68%). [*]The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 63 times (68%). [*]The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 57 times (62%). [*]The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 42 times (46%). [/list]

There's a slight abberation in the 5/12 matchup, but not nearly as much as the hype. There's also an abberation in the 3/14 matchup, but you never hear about that "curse".</p>

 

[Coach34]

but to me, the NCAA Tourney is the only thing that matters

 

[VegasDawg13]

I think the talk of it comes from how many years in a row it's hapenned more than from the percentage of times it happens.

What abberation are talking about in 3/14? Those percentages go consistently down except for when going from the 5/12 to the 6/11.

 

[patdog]

There's a 12% gap between the #2 and #3 team's winning percentage. Then only a 4% decrease between #3 and #4. Then a 12% decrease between #4 and #5. You'd expect the gap to be about 7% between each seed. It's smaller than the 5/12 abberation, but it's still there.

I do agree that there is a slight 5/12 curse, it's just that it's over-exaggerated in the media. One theory of the reason for the "curse" is that a lot of the #12 seeds are the best champions of 1-bid conferences and are actually much better teams than they're given credit for being (i.e. Butler and Valpo). I buy that theory bigtime.

 

[bulldogcountry1]

just the thing to get your leaves quivering.

 

[VegasDawg13]

We were just looking at it two different ways.</p>

 

[MSUCostanza]

A 16-seed is going to beat a 1-seed eventually.

 

[Uncle Leo]

...I "knew" we would lose because we were the last 5v12 matchup that was played and all the other 5-seeds had won.

 

[Optimus Prime 4]

...it didn't happen last year, I don't think.

 

[VegasDawg13]

I think you're right; I forgot about that. The point still remains that it became so famous because it happened every year for so long.</p>

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Click here to see how seeds do over the years.

Last year and 2000 are the only times in the last 19 years where a 12 did not win at least one game.

 

[drunkernhelldawg]

The NCAA is big, but the idea that the regular season and the SECT are irrelevant is ********. I didn't cheer every possession this season for nothing.

Our season will end with either a loss in the NCAA or a National Championship. The idea that the whole season's value is decided only then is not for me.