Basketball Reality

[L4Dawg]

I just wanted to offer views on what seems to be the prevailing wisdom among the trolls and others.
1) We aren't any good and are regressing: That's just not true. We are playing competitive basketball against pretty much everyone. The SEC is populated with mostly pretty good teams this year. Our SEC schedule was front loaded with the better teams too. It is very difficult to beat a team of similar strength on the road, and we have a bunch of teams that are about on the same level as us in the SEC.
2) South Carolina was a bad loss: It was a loss, but that MIGHT turn out to be the best team in the SEC. They are certainly building a very impressive resume.
3) We should have beat Ole Miss: We COULD have beaten them, but doing it on the road would have been a slight upset. Like or not, they do have a good team.
4) Tolu is liability: That is absolutely absurd. He is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds per game since he came back, and THAT is against the people we have been playing. That alone means he is no liability. A LOT of what we get out of the other guys comes from teams going all out to try to stop him. He is double teamed virtually every time he touches the ball down low.
5: We are a poor shooting team outside of Hubbard: Yes, that is why effort on defense and rebounding is so important to this team. I think that goes a LONG way toward explaining why we can beat UT and Auburn at home and lose to Ole Miss on the road. Effort DOES feed off the crowd to some extent. In close games it makes a difference. We scored enough to win last night, but our 3pt defense was not up to par. That and turnovers were the difference.
6: Free throw are killing us: Yes. My Dad was an old basketball coach. He always said practice and coaching helps some, but that to a large extent good free throw shooters are born, not made. If you are expecting any major improvement there you will probably be disappointed. We have improved a tad since last year, but it is still what it is.

Bottom line: We have pretty good team. Unfortunately for us so does almost everyone else in the SEC. I think UK, UT, Auburn, USC, and maybe Alabama are the top tier, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri are the bottom tier. The rest of the pack, including us, are about even. Those teams are not that far below the top tier at all. I think we will get in the NCAA, but it's certainly not out of the question that we won't. I think we wind up being an 8 or 9 seed. We will see.

 

[HuntDawg]

I just wanted to offer views on what seems to be the prevailing wisdom among the trolls and others.
1) We aren't any good and are regressing: That's just not true. We are playing competitive basketball against pretty much everyone. The SEC is populated with mostly pretty good teams this year. Our SEC schedule was front loaded with the better teams too. It is very difficult to beat a team of similar strength on the road, and we have a bunch of teams that are about on the same level as us in the SEC.
2) South Carolina was a bad loss: It was a loss, but that MIGHT turn out to be the best team in the SEC. They are certainly building a very impressive resume.
3) We should have beat Ole Miss: We COULD have beaten them, but doing it on the road would have been a slight upset. Like or not, they do have a good team.
4) Tolu is liability: That is absolutely absurd. He is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds per game since he came back, and THAT is against the people we have been playing. That alone means he is no liability. A LOT of what we get out of the other guys comes from teams going all out to try to stop him. He is double teamed virtually every time he touches the ball down low.
5: We are a poor shooting team outside of Hubbard: Yes, that is why effort on defense and rebounding is so important to this team. I think that goes a LONG way toward explaining why we can beat UT and Auburn at home and lose to Ole Miss on the road. Effort DOES feed off the crowd to some extent. In close games it makes a difference. We scored enough to win last night, but our 3pt defense was not up to par. That and turnovers were the difference.
6: Free throw are killing us: Yes. My Dad was an old basketball coach. He always said practice and coaching helps some, but that to a large extent good free throw shooters are born, not made. If you are expecting any major improvement there you will probably be disappointed. We have improved a tad since last year, but it is still what it is.

Bottom line: We have pretty good team. Unfortunately for us so does almost everyone else in the SEC. I think UK, UT, Auburn, USC, and maybe Alabama are the top tier, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri are the bottom tier. The rest of the pack, including us, are about even. Those teams are not that far below the top tier at all. I think we will get in the NCAA, but it's certainly not out of the question that we won't. I think we wind up being an 8 or 9 seed. We will see.

1) agree
2) the SC loss was fine. They arent the best team in the SEC nor are they the best team metrics wise, but the loss wasnt a bad one
3) agree
4) Thing with Tolu is certainly style teams are going to give him fits. As long as we dont force things to run through him its fine. He's not a 1st team all conference player, hes actually just an average big in this league.
5) We are a poor shooting team period. Hubbard is shooting 31% from 3 in conference play, he's an average outside shooter at best.
6) agree

Bottom line: The upper tier teams are UK, UT, Alabama. Next in line are Auburn/SC with SC trending upward. The next tier are all the middle tier teams, who will continue to sort themselves out as the year progresses. The middle tier are a good jump away from the top tier teams. Especially the elite. Doesnt mean they cant sneak up and beat one on occasion, esepcailly at home.. but all have flaws the top tier teams dont, and those are obvious.....The bottom tier teams are Arkansas, Vandy, and Mizzou, wont win many conference games.. matter of fact some predictions have mizzou winning 0 and vandy 1.

 

[patdog]

4) Thing with Tolu is certainly style teams are going to give him fits. As long as we dont force things to run through him its fine. He's not a 1st team all conference player, hes actually just an average big in this league.

Tolu literally was 1st team All-SEC last season, and pre-season 1st team this season. And probably would have been this year if he hadn't missed so much time to injury. As it is, he's tied for 9th in scoring and is 7th in rebounding in the league, against maybe the toughest league schedule any team has played to date.

 

[HuntDawg]

Because he gets opportunties. No other good team runs their offense thru a big man. 16 of the top 17 scorers in the league are guards. He gets counting stats. He cant defend. He doesnt block shots. He obviously cant shoot free throws

There is a REASON why he's a 5th year senior and still here. He's solid. He'll get his counting stats because we'll throw him the ball on the block X amount of times per game.

But go thru the league and be real:
Broome, Adioo, Mitchell at Kentucky, Big V at kentucky just got healthy, Nelson, Mack-- All these guys have better overall games than does Tolu. They just dont get thrown the ball down at the block and told to score to get those counting stats up.

 

[StateCollege]

Because he gets opportunties. No other good team runs their offense thru a big man. 16 of the top 17 scorers in the league are guards. He gets counting stats. He cant defend. He doesnt block shots. He obviously cant shoot free throws

There is a REASON why he's a 5th year senior and still here. He's solid. He'll get his counting stats because we'll throw him the ball on the block X amount of times per game.

But go thru the league and be real:
Broome, Adioo, Mitchell at Kentucky, Big V at kentucky just got healthy, Nelson, Mack-- All these guys have better overall games than does Tolu. They just dont get thrown the ball down at the block and told to score to get those counting stats up.

Nah, I'm not going for the Marshall Henderson excuse of "He only scores a lot because he is the whole offense". Tolu averaged 10 shots per game last year, just under that this season. He shot for 57.2% last year and 59.8% this year, both near the top of the SEC. Overall, he's a very efficient scorer - even with a couple bad games this year. Turnovers are a problem, but they are an issue for the rest of our team too.

 

[HuntDawg]

Nah, I'm not going for the Marshall Henderson excuse of "He only scores a lot because he is the whole offense". Tolu averaged 10 shots per game last year, just under that this season. He shot for 57.2% last year and 59.8% this year, both near the top of the SEC. Overall, he's a very efficient scorer - even with a couple bad games this year. Turnovers are a problem, but they are an issue for the rest of our team too.

Never said he wasnt efficent. Said other bigs dont get the same opportunties that he gets. Tolu was the center of the offense last season. Castleton at Florida, and Oscar at Kentucky were the only other bigs that could say that.

There is literally no other big in the league this season that has the offense run thru them. None. Even Broome. Its a guards league. So because he's averaging more points than other bigs doesnt make him better.

Again- do you think Tennessee would trade Aido for him? Kentucky trade their bigs? Alabama trade Nelson? South Carolina trade Mack? Auburn trade Broome?--- All those are easy answers.. Now ask if any of those guys would be traded for Oscar from lastt season?

That tells you how Tolu fits into the league in terms of big men.

 

[Ranchdawg]

My problem with Tolu is consistency. He played a great game against Auburn. When he saw the double team he passed the ball immediately. Against OM he tried to score through the double team and failed miserably. He turned the ball over or had his shot blocked especially in the first half. He didn't score from the floor until the second half.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

The only thing I will add is that we will end up losing at least one more very important game because our free-throw shooting is so pathetic. I am afraid it ill also happen with the ladies team. We are in a point now it feels more like a head issue than an ability issue but I don't know how to fix it and we evidently don't have any clue how to fix it. I don't know if we can fix it this late in the game.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Also the narrative of “we’re gonna miss the tourney now” when literally every bracket guy out there has us safely in and not even on the bubble at this point. Could we take some bad losses and miss out? Sure. But that’s what it would take. We just hold chalk the rest of the way with the games we’re favored in and we get in pretty safely.

 

[L4Dawg]

The only thing I will add is that we will end up losing at least one more very important game because our free-throw shooting is so pathetic. I am afraid it ill also happen with the ladies team. We are in a point now it feels more like a head issue than an ability issue but I don't know how to fix it and we evidently don't have any clue how to fix it. I don't know if we can fix it this late in the game.

If there was someone out there that had a real
Way to fix free throw shooting he would get rich QUICK as a consultant to every NBA team and half the NCAA.

 

[Maroon13]

Also the narrative of “we’re gonna miss the tourney now” when literally every bracket guy out there has us safely in and not even on the bubble at this point. Could we take some bad losses and miss out? Sure. But that’s what it would take.

Thats pretty much why there is a " narrative ". We could easily lose at Missouri and LSU. Or split and maybe beat UK at home.

However I fully expect &tate to finish 7-11...(maybe 8-10) in sec play.

 

[TNDawg1]

The way things worked out we failed to upgrade our roster enough. Jans will have to walk on water in the upcoming portal to keep is mid-SEC. The conference rivals will compete their asses off for transfers and a lot of them have better HS recruiting to begin with. I really hope we rake in the portal but I doubt we pull in a POTY or 1st Team SEC player the way things have gone on that front. Hope I’m wrong

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

If there was someone out there that had a real
Way to fix free throw shooting he would get rich QUICK as a consultant to every NBA team and half the NCAA.

Discipline - Physical & Mental

I hate to sound like the angry old man but prove me wrong.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Thats pretty much why there is a " narrative ". We could easily lose at Missouri and LSU. Or split and maybe beat UK at home.

However I fully expect &tate to finish 7-11...(maybe 8-10) in sec play.

Ok but until it happens (if it even does) our metrics are that of a solid tourney team. We have stayed in a relatively good spot basically the whole season, even when we’ve lost some games. You can doomsday this thing if you’d like, personally not my style.

Last year we were an outsider trying to play ourselves in most of the year. This year we are in and would have to play ourselves out. We’ve had spells where we’ve lost or haven’t played well but the response has been pretty strong each time.

 

[L4Dawg]

Discipline - Physical & Mental

I hate to sound like the angry old man but prove me wrong.

I just know what Dad always said.

 

[leeinator]

We're not going to get a much better coach than Jans. If he's happy living in Starkvegas, I say leave him with it for about 5 more years and see what he can build. Give him some attractive incentives for winning consistently and making the Dance every now and then. If we can give Howland 8 years, I don't see what's wrong with rolling with Jans for a while unless he falls flat on his face for several years in a row.

 

[Podgy]

The team is good but not great. It's better than last year's team although not as good defensively. The SEC has a lot of good basketball teams. That's challenging.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

I think 7-11 will be where State finishes in league play. Could be 3-6 after this weekend so that would be 4-5 in the last 9. I can an 0 for the Road so that is 9 losses and we already have 1 home loss. This team got into a style last night that they aren't good at. They need to keep the opponent in the 60's.

 

[leeinator]

I think 7-11 will be where State finishes in league play. Could be 3-6 after this weekend so that would be 4-5 in the last 9. I can an 0 for the Road so that is 9 losses and we already have 1 home loss. This team got into a style last night that they aren't good at. They need to keep the opponent in the 60's.

Agree, was gonna say we need to keep opponents under 70 to have a chance. When we can stock up on some shooters, then that formula can change upward a little bit.

 

[Mr. Cook]

I just wanted to offer views on what seems to be the prevailing wisdom among the trolls and others.
1) We aren't any good and are regressing: That's just not true. We are playing competitive basketball against pretty much everyone. The SEC is populated with mostly pretty good teams this year. Our SEC schedule was front loaded with the better teams too. It is very difficult to beat a team of similar strength on the road, and we have a bunch of teams that are about on the same level as us in the SEC.
2) South Carolina was a bad loss: It was a loss, but that MIGHT turn out to be the best team in the SEC. They are certainly building a very impressive resume.
3) We should have beat Ole Miss: We COULD have beaten them, but doing it on the road would have been a slight upset. Like or not, they do have a good team.
4) Tolu is liability: That is absolutely absurd. He is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds per game since he came back, and THAT is against the people we have been playing. That alone means he is no liability. A LOT of what we get out of the other guys comes from teams going all out to try to stop him. He is double teamed virtually every time he touches the ball down low.
5: We are a poor shooting team outside of Hubbard: Yes, that is why effort on defense and rebounding is so important to this team. I think that goes a LONG way toward explaining why we can beat UT and Auburn at home and lose to Ole Miss on the road. Effort DOES feed off the crowd to some extent. In close games it makes a difference. We scored enough to win last night, but our 3pt defense was not up to par. That and turnovers were the difference.
6: Free throw are killing us: Yes. My Dad was an old basketball coach. He always said practice and coaching helps some, but that to a large extent good free throw shooters are born, not made. If you are expecting any major improvement there you will probably be disappointed. We have improved a tad since last year, but it is still what it is.

Bottom line: We have pretty good team. Unfortunately for us so does almost everyone else in the SEC. I think UK, UT, Auburn, USC, and maybe Alabama are the top tier, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri are the bottom tier. The rest of the pack, including us, are about even. Those teams are not that far below the top tier at all. I think we will get in the NCAA, but it's certainly not out of the question that we won't. I think we wind up being an 8 or 9 seed. We will see.

What is with you and why are you making rational and reasonable statements on this board?*********

 

[patdog]

The way things worked out we failed to upgrade our roster enough. Jans will have to walk on water in the upcoming portal to keep is mid-SEC. The conference rivals will compete their asses off for transfers and a lot of them have better HS recruiting to begin with. I really hope we rake in the portal but I doubt we pull in a POTY or 1st Team SEC player the way things have gone on that front. Hope I’m wrong

The white kid who’s left the team was a massive transfer fail. If he’d lived up to his billing, it would have been huge for this team.

 

[olblue]

I just wanted to offer views on what seems to be the prevailing wisdom among the trolls and others.
1) We aren't any good and are regressing: That's just not true. We are playing competitive basketball against pretty much everyone. The SEC is populated with mostly pretty good teams this year. Our SEC schedule was front loaded with the better teams too. It is very difficult to beat a team of similar strength on the road, and we have a bunch of teams that are about on the same level as us in the SEC.
2) South Carolina was a bad loss: It was a loss, but that MIGHT turn out to be the best team in the SEC. They are certainly building a very impressive resume.
3) We should have beat Ole Miss: We COULD have beaten them, but doing it on the road would have been a slight upset. Like or not, they do have a good team.
4) Tolu is liability: That is absolutely absurd. He is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds per game since he came back, and THAT is against the people we have been playing. That alone means he is no liability. A LOT of what we get out of the other guys comes from teams going all out to try to stop him. He is double teamed virtually every time he touches the ball down low.
5: We are a poor shooting team outside of Hubbard: Yes, that is why effort on defense and rebounding is so important to this team. I think that goes a LONG way toward explaining why we can beat UT and Auburn at home and lose to Ole Miss on the road. Effort DOES feed off the crowd to some extent. In close games it makes a difference. We scored enough to win last night, but our 3pt defense was not up to par. That and turnovers were the difference.
6: Free throw are killing us: Yes. My Dad was an old basketball coach. He always said practice and coaching helps some, but that to a large extent good free throw shooters are born, not made. If you are expecting any major improvement there you will probably be disappointed. We have improved a tad since last year, but it is still what it is.

Bottom line: We have pretty good team. Unfortunately for us so does almost everyone else in the SEC. I think UK, UT, Auburn, USC, and maybe Alabama are the top tier, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri are the bottom tier. The rest of the pack, including us, are about even. Those teams are not that far below the top tier at all. I think we will get in the NCAA, but it's certainly not out of the question that we won't. I think we wind up being an 8 or 9 seed. We will see.

Outstanding

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think 7-11 will be where State finishes in league play. Could be 3-6 after this weekend so that would be 4-5 in the last 9. I can an 0 for the Road so that is 9 losses and we already have 1 home loss. This team got into a style last night that they aren't good at. They need to keep the opponent in the 60's.

Missouri is winless in SEC play and currently getting waxed at home by a 1-6 Arkansas team and you are projecting us to lose to this team?

 

[SteelCurtain74]

At this point, the team is what it is, warts and all. The question is what do you prioritize and what do you have to look past. For example, DJ, Tolu and Cam have the lowest FT% on the team. Do you pull them off the floor in the final minutes of a close game because of that but lose their rebounding, defense, etc.

Personally, DJ wouldn't see the floor in the last 4 minutes of the game if I was coaching. Low FT%, shoots only 36% from the field and 23% from 3 and is 3rd on the team in turnovers per game. Somehow though he leads the team in minutes played per game.

I would like to see Shawn Jones Jr pick up some of his minutes. He has better stats across the board.

With that said, we don't see what happens at practice so there may be issues we don't see that affects some of these guys playing time.

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www.espn.com

 

[Dogdazey]

I just wanted to offer views on what seems to be the prevailing wisdom among the trolls and others.
1) We aren't any good and are regressing: That's just not true. We are playing competitive basketball against pretty much everyone. The SEC is populated with mostly pretty good teams this year. Our SEC schedule was front loaded with the better teams too. It is very difficult to beat a team of similar strength on the road, and we have a bunch of teams that are about on the same level as us in the SEC.
2) South Carolina was a bad loss: It was a loss, but that MIGHT turn out to be the best team in the SEC. They are certainly building a very impressive resume.
3) We should have beat Ole Miss: We COULD have beaten them, but doing it on the road would have been a slight upset. Like or not, they do have a good team.
4) Tolu is liability: That is absolutely absurd. He is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds per game since he came back, and THAT is against the people we have been playing. That alone means he is no liability. A LOT of what we get out of the other guys comes from teams going all out to try to stop him. He is double teamed virtually every time he touches the ball down low.
5: We are a poor shooting team outside of Hubbard: Yes, that is why effort on defense and rebounding is so important to this team. I think that goes a LONG way toward explaining why we can beat UT and Auburn at home and lose to Ole Miss on the road. Effort DOES feed off the crowd to some extent. In close games it makes a difference. We scored enough to win last night, but our 3pt defense was not up to par. That and turnovers were the difference.
6: Free throw are killing us: Yes. My Dad was an old basketball coach. He always said practice and coaching helps some, but that to a large extent good free throw shooters are born, not made. If you are expecting any major improvement there you will probably be disappointed. We have improved a tad since last year, but it is still what it is.

Bottom line: We have pretty good team. Unfortunately for us so does almost everyone else in the SEC. I think UK, UT, Auburn, USC, and maybe Alabama are the top tier, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri are the bottom tier. The rest of the pack, including us, are about even. Those teams are not that far below the top tier at all. I think we will get in the NCAA, but it's certainly not out of the question that we won't. I think we wind up being an 8 or 9 seed. We will see.

Basketball coach here also... There's a reason some teams are good free throw shooters and some are not. It's in the practice. Coaches can't make you a good free throw shooter, only the shooter can. Part of it is stamina, the other part of it is getting in the gym and practicing free throws. Making each kid accountable for his free throw shooting did wonders for my team.

Don't just practice shooting free throws. Practice shooting free throws when your winded, when you are tired, when you are fresh. It's amazing when you focus.