BCS formula predicts that Alabama will get the last spot.......

[OG Goat Holder]

Using BCS formula to predict penultimate College Football Playoff Top-25, 12-team CFP bracket

The final weekend of the regular season changed an all-new Top-25 from the BCS Formula and, as such, its projection for the CFP.

www.on3.com

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt over Miami, South Carolina and Ole Miss simply because their name is Alabama. And if they get in, they'll probably win the whole damned thing.

I really really really hope Clemson beats SMU and/or UNLV beats Boise. Because in theory, those losses should not hurt SMU or Boise, right, since they are 7 and 10 already. Of course, if Iowa State beats Arizona State, they steal their spot. And if both happen (Clemson and UNLV in) that likely pushes Boise out instead of Indiana.

I know it's less money for the SEC but 17 Bama. They get the benefit of the name for really no reason. 2011 and 2017 easily come to mind. I'd rather Miami get in over Bama. But I can't really argue against it (Bama) vs the other teams.

Come on, Dabo.

 

[thatsbaseball]

I still say the networks and sponsors will be lobbying hard for a Florida team. May not happen but at the end of the day it's all 100% about the money anyway so WTH ?

 

[HuntDawg]

Alabama or South Carolina deserve the spot.

Alabama will have beaten UGA, Missouri, LSU, and South Carolina. All 4 will be ranked in the top 25.
South Carolina doesnt have a bad loss and 3 ranked wins as well.. they just lack the marquee win.

Both resumes are better than any of the others... even if Dabo wins and clemson gets the auto. The sec will jump SMU...the entire Boise and rest of it doesnt even matter.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Both resumes are better than any of the others... even if Dabo wins and clemson gets the auto. The sec will jump SMU...the entire Boise and rest of it doesnt even matter.

Committee with have some explaining to do. If they do plan on jumping SMU they will need to explain why they don't currently have Alabama/South Carolina over SMU.

 

[HuntDawg]

Committee with have some explaining to do. If they do plan on jumping SMU they will need to explain why they don't currently have Alabama/South Carolina over SMU.

because they are currenetly a 1 loss team. 1 loss team and projected ACC champ. They lose and become 2 loss and the 2 loss ACC team doesnt trump a 3 loss sec team with the resumes above.

The ACC isnt a strong enough league to get 2 teams in with 2-3 losses.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

because they are currenetly a 1 loss team. 1 loss team and projected ACC champ. They lose and become 2 loss and the 2 loss ACC team doesnt trump a 3 loss sec team with the resumes above.

The ACC isnt a strong enough league to get 2 teams in with 2-3 losses.

Conference championships are an extra game you have to play, that the SEC teams (and others) don't. It should not count against you, barring some embarrassing blowout that totally exposes you. You are thinking like it's 2013.

Bottom line, they are like basketball/baseball tournaments. Wins can help you (i.e. auto berth), but losses shouldn't hurt you.

A 16-team playoff solves all of this.

 

[$altyDawg]

Using BCS formula to predict penultimate College Football Playoff Top-25, 12-team CFP bracket

The final weekend of the regular season changed an all-new Top-25 from the BCS Formula and, as such, its projection for the CFP.

www.on3.com

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt over Miami, South Carolina and Ole Miss simply because their name is Alabama. And if they get in, they'll probably win the whole damned thing.

I really really really hope Clemson beats SMU and/or UNLV beats Boise. Because in theory, those losses should not hurt SMU or Boise, right, since they are 7 and 10 already. Of course, if Iowa State beats Arizona State, they steal their spot. And if both happen (Clemson and UNLV in) that likely pushes Boise out instead of Indiana.

I know it's less money for the SEC but 17 Bama. They get the benefit of the name for really no reason. 2011 and 2017 easily come to mind. I'd rather Miami get in over Bama. But I can't really argue against it (Bama) vs the other teams.

Come on, Dabo.

Bama beat SC head up, and Miami is an average team in a weak conference. If Bama does make it in, no way they win it all. Their offense is just too single faceted. Teams that focus on shutting down Milroe running the ball and contain Ryan William will send Bama packing. All they'll have to do is watch Bama's games against Vandy and Oklahoma, and if they have the personnel, they'll beat Bama. Nick Saban ain't walking through that door...

 

[HuntDawg]

Conference championships are an extra game you have to play, that the SEC teams (and others) don't. It should not count against you, barring some embarrassing blowout that totally exposes you. You are thinking like it's 2013.

Bottom line, they are like basketball/baseball tournaments. Wins can help you (i.e. auto berth), but losses shouldn't hurt you.

Conference championship games have hurt teams all thru the years. look no farther than UGA in the past. Conference champ games have always helped teams get in.. and out... wont change this year.

SMU and Clemson is a play-in game. They both arent getting in. Miami didnt beat a ranked team all year. They dont have a chance....Miami will fall below both Alabama and South Carolina in the new rankings tuesday.

The SEC gets 4. South Carolina or Alabama are most deserving.. Alabama won on the field. However I think you can make a strong case for either.

Clemson will fall to 17-18. Miami to 14-15. Every one else in the rankings will move up 2 slots.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Conference championship games have hurt teams all thru the years.

It's a new era. It's not the BCS or the 4-team playoff. Like I said, you want it to be 2007 and it's not anymore. A money-making exhibition game, that many others don't have to play, should not hurt a team.

 

[GloryDawg]

If the ACC gets two in Bama is out. If they only get one, it's because the power that BE's wants Bama in.

 

[HuntDawg]

It's a new era. It's not the BCS or the 4-team playoff.

and just because its a new era.. doesnt mean they are all of a sudden quit counting the conference championship games.

They always have been....and will be again... and if thats the Acc's argument to try to get a 2nd team in. It'll fall on deaf ears... if they dont want them to count, should cancel the game in future years.

 

[patdog]

If the ACC gets two in Bama is out. If they only get one, it's because the power that BE's wants Bama in.

Strip off the school names and conference names and compare the resumes. Assuming SMU loses to Clemson, the best resume by far between SMU, Miami and Alabama is Alabama's. Mississippi and South Carolina also have better resumes.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

If the ACC gets two in Bama is out. If they only get one, it's because the power that BE's wants Bama in.

Yeah. It's a national championship, not an SEC championship. If SMU was 10-2, or Bama/etc. was 10-2, sure I get it, SOS takes over. But we're not getting enough cross pollination to make that call yet. Plus the committee obviously sees SMU as above Alabama right now, and a conference title game that Bama doesn't have to play in should not damn SMU.

While SOS and other power metrics are important, until we can ensure that all truly deserving teams get in, we can't have a 9-3 Bama jumping an 11-2 SMU who just lost a conference title game.

Going forward, we need a 16-teamer, and we also need to cut the FCS games in order to get more FBS x-pol.

 

[HuntDawg]

Strip off the school names and conference names and compare the resumes. Assuming SMU loses to Clemson, the best resume by far between SMU, Miami and Alabama is Alabama's. Mississippi and South Carolina also have better resumes.

agree. The ol powers that be want bama in is stupid. They've won 4 games vs the top 25. And they'll have played 2 teams that are locks for the playoffs.... their resume is deserving... more so than the other ones. As stated I think you can make a strong case for South Carolina as well.

 

[HuntDawg]

Yeah. It's a national championship, not an SEC championship. If SMU was 10-2, or Bama/etc. was 10-2, sure I get it, SOS takes over. But we're not getting enough cross pollination to make that call yet. Plus the committee obviously sees SMU as above Alabama right now, and a conference title game that Bama doesn't have to play in should not damn SMU.

While SOS and other power metrics are important, until we can ensure that all truly deserving teams get in, we can't have a 9-3 Bama jumping an 11-2 SMU who just lost a conference title game.

committee sees SMU over bama now because of 1 loss compared to 3. And the margin is tight. Add another loss to SMU's resume and its a done deal.

Currently SMU has only played 1 ranked team.. and lost to that team. If they lose to their only other ranked opponent in Clemson. They arent getting in. Silly to even think they should be. If they want in with their resume.. beat whats proven to be a very average clemson team.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

agree. The ol powers that be want bama in is stupid. They've won 4 games vs the top 25. And they'll have played 2 teams that are locks for the playoffs.... their resume is deserving... more so than the other ones. As stated I think you can make a strong case for South Carolina as well.

That's all based on the idea that the SEC is better. It's literally baked into the system, and we don't get enough games like other sports to truly sort it out.

 

[HuntDawg]

That's all based on the idea that the SEC is better. It's literally baked into the system, and we don't get enough games like other sports to truly sort it out.

the sec is better. and should be rewarded as such.

Put 6 sec teams and let them play SMU's schedule.. they'd all end up 11-1 or better.... again SMU has played 1 ranked team all year a BYU team thats ranked 18th.... and they lost.... you cant go all year, go 0-2 vs ranked teams, and win your other games... and ***** when you get left out.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Such stier kacke!

 

[ZombieKissinger]

I would love SMU and UNLV wins

 

[GloryDawg]

Strip off the school names and conference names and compare the resumes. Assuming SMU loses to Clemson, the best resume by far between SMU, Miami and Alabama is Alabama's. Mississippi and South Carolina also have better resumes.

I totally agree.

 

[GloryDawg]

I would love SMU and UNLV wins

It would make my weekend if UNLV won.

 

[GloryDawg]

I am guessing it is possible a p4 got left out? It's my understanding it's the top five conference champions. Too bad Tulane did not win this weekend. There are three G5 teams in the top 25. Tulane was 17 right behind the highest ranked Big 12 team.

 

[Perd Hapley]

We will find out tomorrow night regarding Bama and Miami. There’s not any mechanism for one of them to pass the other after this week’s rankings are released.

It’s either going to be #10 Boise State, #11 Miami, #12 Bama or #10 Boise State, #11 Miami, #12 Bama. That is, unless somehow Miami falls below not only Bama but also USC and/or Ole Miss as well. But in any case, the Alabama / Miami question will be answered soon. It’s going to be a very tall order for whomever occupies the 12-spot in this week’s rankings to make the CFP.

 

[HuntDawg]

We will find out tomorrow night regarding Bama and Miami. There’s not any mechanism for one of them to pass the other after this week’s rankings are released.

It’s either going to be #10 Boise State, #11 Miami, #12 Bama or #10 Boise State, #11 Miami, #12 Bama. That is, unless somehow Miami falls below not only Bama but also USC and/or Ole Miss as well. But in any case, the Alabama / Miami question will be answered soon.

Right. But I actually think Miami falls all the way behind all 3 sec teams.

Think it goes: Bama 11, SC 12, Ole Miss 13, Miami 14... and none play this week. So whats done is done come Tuesday.

 

[pseudonym]

Is Alabama getting the benefit of the doubt? Their metrics indicate they should be one of the 12. Which team is being left out that has metrics you prefer over Alabama's?

 

[dickiedawg]

A 16-team playoff solves all of this.

A 16 team playoff doesn’t solve it. It just shifts the teams in the discussion.
The only thing that would “solve” it would be a completely objective criteria such as the NFL has.

 

[HuntDawg]

we all need to realize it cant be like the NFL. Only 32 NFL teams. Many more of these. So its never going to work in the current format.

What these conferences need to do is adopt rules that are best for their conference. Whether that be championship games, forced to play other power schools in non conference games, or whatever.

Cant blame or penalize the SEC for being forward thinking.

 

[johnson86-1]

It's a new era. It's not the BCS or the 4-team playoff. Like I said, you want it to be 2007 and it's not anymore. A money-making exhibition game, that many others don't have to play, should not hurt a team.

That would be completely fair if it didn't have the ability to help a team.

But assuming they count, then they count. At the end of the day, you can only look at the resumes as they are. If you have a 10-2 team and a 10-3 team from the same conference, and the only difference between their resumes is that the 10-3 team won a tiebreaker and made it to the championship game, then sure, you can give the team that won the tiebreaker the nod.

But if you're looking at at large bids from different conferences, and you have a lot of teams that may only play two (or even fewer) good teams all year in the regular season, the conference championship game is going to give you a ton of information compared to the 6 or 7 patsies they play. You have to use that information when picking at large bids.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

Using BCS formula to predict penultimate College Football Playoff Top-25, 12-team CFP bracket

The final weekend of the regular season changed an all-new Top-25 from the BCS Formula and, as such, its projection for the CFP.

www.on3.com

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt over Miami, South Carolina and Ole Miss simply because their name is Alabama. And if they get in, they'll probably win the whole damned thing.

I really really really hope Clemson beats SMU and/or UNLV beats Boise. Because in theory, those losses should not hurt SMU or Boise, right, since they are 7 and 10 already. Of course, if Iowa State beats Arizona State, they steal their spot. And if both happen (Clemson and UNLV in) that likely pushes Boise out instead of Indiana.

I know it's less money for the SEC but 17 Bama. They get the benefit of the name for really no reason. 2011 and 2017 easily come to mind. I'd rather Miami get in over Bama. But I can't really argue against it (Bama) vs the other teams.

Come on, Dabo.

The Bama fans I spend time with are hoping Bama gets left out so that the embarrassment ends. They don't want to play at South Bend in the snow. I'm sure Coach DeBoer & Co. feel differently, but that loss to OU should show how undeserving they are.

 

[HuntDawg]

The Bama fans I spend time with are hoping Bama gets left out so that the embarrassment ends. They don't want to play at South Bend in the snow. I'm sure Coach DeBoer & Co. feel differently, but that loss to OU should show how undeserving they are.

this is what you get by expanding. It'll only get worse when it goes to 14 or 16.

Teams that very much arent championship caliber teams getting into the playoffs.

I guess letting 1 or 2 teams in that techincally dont deserve it.. is better than the years were there were 2-3 teams with a legit case for a 4 team spot and get left out.

 

[patdog]

The Bama fans I spend time with are hoping Bama gets left out so that the embarrassment ends. They don't want to play at South Bend in the snow. I'm sure Coach DeBoer & Co. feel differently, but that loss to OU should show how undeserving they are.

Your Bama friends are idiots then.

 

[Dawgbite]

 

[mstateglfr]

A 16-team playoff solves all of this.

If we get a 16 team playoff, then the argument will be that a 24 team playoff will solve all of this.

 

[mstateglfr]

It’s either going to be #10 Boise State, #11 Miami, #12 Bama or #10 Boise State, #11 Miami, #12 Bama.

I want to see someone argue for one of these and against the other!

 

[OG Goat Holder]

If we get a 16 team playoff, then the argument will be that a 24 team playoff will solve all of this.

Could. And maybe it should.

FCS: 129 teams, 24 team playoff. 18.6%;
D2: 162 teams, 28 team playoff. 17.3%
D3: 240 teams, 40 team playoff. 16.7%
NAIA: 97 teams, 20 team playoff. 20.6%
D1 basketball: 352 teams, 68 team playoff. 19.3%
D1 baseball: 300 teams, 64 team playoff. 21.3%

Then the smartest folks in the room, FBS football, has 134 teams, with a 12 team playoff. 9.0%. With a 24-teamer, it's 17.9%. 16-teamer is 11.9%.

Target theoretically should be 20 or so, to get it in range of the others, who are obviously doing it all wrong. But 16 keeps it all fair, and keeps a lot of what has made FBS so great for so long.....the regular season.

 

[HuntDawg]

Could. And maybe it should.

FCS: 129 teams, 24 team playoff. 18.6%;
D2: 162 teams, 28 team playoff. 17.3%
D3: 240 teams, 40 team playoff. 16.7%
NAIA: 97 teams, 20 team playoff. 20.6%
D1 basketball: 352 teams, 68 team playoff. 19.3%
D1 baseball: 300 teams, 64 team playoff. 21.3%

Then the smartest folks in the room, FBS football, has 134 teams, with a 12 team playoff. 9.0%. With a 24-teamer, it's 17.9%. 16-teamer is 11.9%.

Target theoretically should be 20 or so, to get it in range of the others, who are obviously doing it all wrong. But 16 keeps it all fair, and keeps a lot of what has made FBS so great for so long.....the regular season.

the difference in the numbers you site... is that in those other levels there arent bowls. Everyone's seasons ends so those 28-30 teams can play out the championship.

You'd have to do away with bowls all together to be able to play a championship tournament that big... for example d3 just started their playoffs last weekend.

 

[Dawgzilla2]

Your Bama friends are idiots then.

They are pissed off at DeBoer and have zero faith in the team.

 

[pseudonym]

A 16 team playoff doesn’t solve it. It just shifts the teams in the discussion.
The only thing that would “solve” it would be a completely objective criteria such as the NFL has.

You're right about objectivity, but college football can't have the same objectivity as the NFL.

That's why I propose getting rid of the committee and choosing one metric: SOR

If I assume some championship game outcomes, this is the field according to straight SOR with no committee:
1-Oregon
2-Georgia
3-SMU
4-Boise State
—
5-Texas
6-Penn State
7-Notre Dame
8-Ohio State
9-Tennessee
10-Indiana
11-Alabama
12-Iowa State

Is the committee going to come up with some significantly better field than that?

 

[HuntDawg]

You're right about objectivity, but college football can't have the same objectivity as the NFL.

That's why I propose getting rid of the committee and choosing one metric: SOR

but weve already done that. Remember the ol BCS. Where the computers did all the leg work. We didnt want. computers to decide it.. so we formed a committee.

 

[Perd Hapley]

Right. But I actually think Miami falls all the way behind all 3 sec teams.

Think it goes: Bama 11, SC 12, Ole Miss 13, Miami 14... and none play this week. So whats done is done come Tuesday.

Certainly could happen. I personally think Ole Miss would murder Miami on a neutral field. South Carolina might do the same, but I’d say thats more of a tossup.