Big Day Today - Bubble Breakdown

[615dawg]

I contend that we are in the tournament win or lose. There just has not been chaos in the mid-majors in a bad mid-major year. But if we lose, we are in the Dayton games. Winning today is the most important thing. A win over Florida would lock it up. A loss to Florida and I think we get in, but we're watching some games with unease as the weekend moves on.

For those who missed it, Lunardi switched us and Penn State this morning. We are now one of the last four byes, an 11 seed playing St. Mary's in Denver. Penn State is where we were last night - the first of the Last Four in, playing Tuesday in Dayton. Bracket Matrix has us in 93% of the brackets.

So here is the comprehensive bubble heading into today.

Teams that are locks, but we are competing with for one of the last four byes:

North Carolina State - They are in the tournament in 99% of every scenario, so they are a virtual lock. They play Clemson today.
Boise State - also a 99% chance of making the tournament. They play UNLV today
Mississippi State - 93% chance. WON
Pittsburgh - 82% chance. Got boatraced by Duke today
Penn State - 89% chance. Beat Illinois
Rutgers - 78% chance. BEAT MICHIGAN
Utah State - 76% chance. They play New Mexico today

Four of the above seven teams will be one of the last four byes. This is where we want to be. We want all these teams but us to lose today.

The three teams above that do not get one of the last four byes have the best chance of making the tournament's play-in games. Which means, there is really only one spot left.

Nevada - interestingly they have a 91% chance of making the tournament, but their percentage is upped because they have a legit shot of winning the MWC. They have San Jose State.
Oklahoma State - 22% chance. They have Texas today
Arizona State - 15% chance. They have USC today
Michigan - 2% chance. LOST TO RUTGERS
North Carolina - 1% chance. They have Virginia today

That's it. That's the realistic bubble at this point. I included Michigan and UNC because of media bias, but looking at the data, they probably shouldn't be included.

Bid-stealing Opportunities

There are only two, and it may only be one.

Conference USA. Florida Atlantic is probably in without winning C-USA. They play Western Kentucky
Mountain West. SDSU and Boise State are locks. Utah State and Nevada are bubble teams. Anyone but those four winning would be a bid stealer.

 

[615dawg]

The only realistic scenario that keeps us out of the tournament:

Loss to Florida+
FAU not winning C-USA+
an unexpected winner of two of the following tournaments: ACC, B1G, Big 12, Pac 12, Big East, SEC

 

[Drebin]

I contend that we are in the tournament win or lose. There just has not been chaos in the mid-majors in a bad mid-major year. But if we lose, we are in the Dayton games. Winning today is the most important thing. A win over Florida would lock it up. A loss to Florida and I think we get in, but we're watching some games with unease as the weekend moves on.

For those who missed it, Lunardi switched us and Penn State this morning. We are now one of the last four byes, an 11 seed playing St. Mary's in Denver. Penn State is where we were last night - the first of the Last Four in, playing Tuesday in Dayton. Bracket Matrix has us in 93% of the brackets.

So here is the comprehensive bubble heading into today.

Teams that are locks, but we are competing with for one of the last four byes:

North Carolina State - They are in the tournament in 99% of every scenario, so they are a virtual lock. They play Clemson today.
Boise State - also a 99% chance of making the tournament. They play UNLV today
Mississippi State - 93% chance. We play Florida
Pittsburgh - 82% chance. They play Duke today
Penn State - 89% chance. They play Illinois today
Rutgers - 78% chance. They play Michigan today
Utah State - 76% chance. They play New Mexico today

Four of the above seven teams will be one of the last four byes. This is where we want to be. We want all these teams but us to lose today.

The three teams above that do not get one of the last four byes have the best chance of making the tournament's play-in games. Which means, there is really only one spot left.

Nevada - interestingly they have a 91% chance of making the tournament, but their percentage is upped because they have a legit shot of winning the MWC. They have San Jose State.
Oklahoma State - 22% chance. They have Texas today
Arizona State - 15% chance. They have USC today
Michigan - 2% chance. They have Rutgers today
North Carolina - 1% chance. They have Virginia today

That's it. That's the realistic bubble at this point. I included Michigan and UNC because of media bias, but looking at the data, they probably shouldn't be included.

Bid-stealing Opportunities

There are only two, and it may only be one.

Conference USA. Florida Atlantic is probably in without winning C-USA. They play Western Kentucky
Mountain West. SDSU and Boise State are locks. Utah State and Nevada are bubble teams. Anyone but those four winning would be a bid stealer.

I think we're giving Lunardi too much credit. He's guessing like everyone else. He was a little late to the party with us. I personally think we're in good shape and off the dayton line even with a loss today. That said, let's win and remove all doubt.

 

[615dawg]

I think we're giving Lunardi too much credit. He's guessing like everyone else. He was a little late to the party with us. I personally think we're in good shape and off the dayton line even with a loss today. That said, let's win and remove all doubt.

You may be right. What makes me nervous about staying off the Dayton line is look at the opportunities in front of everyone. If Pitt beats Duke and Penn State beats Illinois today, then a loss to Florida might have us sweating it as far as staying out of Dayton.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

I think we're giving Lunardi too much credit. He's guessing like everyone else. He was a little late to the party with us. I personally think we're in good shape and off the dayton line even with a loss today. That said, let's win and remove all doubt.

He may be guessing just like everybody else, but his past history is much, much better than that of the general public. There have been a few years he got the entire field and didn't miss one team. He may nkt have gotten all of the matches exactly right, but he had it right if the teams were in the tournament or not. Most people can't do that.

 

[bullygrowl]

I would rather be a 10/11 than an 8/9 just to avoid a 1 seed in round 2 and have a good shot at the sweet 16. If we beat UF and Bama, we start flirting with the 9 line. Begger's can't be choosers though. If we are gonna beat Bama, go ahead and win the whole thing and hope to jump to 7.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Lunardi has contacts on the selection committee. Yesterday he swapped us and Penn State even though neither of us played. My assumption is that was due something he heard from a source.

 

[Drebin]

He may be guessing just like everybody else, but his past history is much, much better than that of the general public. There have been a few years he got the entire field and didn't miss one team. He may nkt have gotten all of the matches exactly right, but he had it right if the teams were in the tournament or not. Most people can't do that.

He understands the criteria that the committee looks at and is using the same tools they use. Anyone who invests the time and has that baseline knowledge can do the same thing. And my comments are less about who gets in and more about where he has teams. He never gets his "last four in" or his "last four byes" 100% correct. He's guessing. They're educated guesses, but they're still guesses.

 

[Drebin]

I would rather be a 10/11 than an 8/9 just to avoid a 1 seed in round 2 and have a good shot at the sweet 16. If we beat UF and Bama, we start flirting with the 9 line. Begger's can't be choosers though. If we are gonna beat Bama, go ahead and win the whole thing and hope to jump to 7.

This is the year to be an 8/9. There are going to be some really tight first/second round games this year. Alabama/Houston/Kansas should scare nobody.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

He understands the criteria that the committee looks at and is using the same tools they use. Anyone who invests the time and has that baseline knowledge can do the same thing. And my comments are less about who gets in and more about where he has teams. He never gets his "last four in" or his "last four byes" 100% correct. He's guessing. They're educated guesses, but they're still guesses.

With a committee, how can anyone know what the criteria is? I mean, you might value the last 10 games of the season, whereas I might value the whole season. You might consider that a team just lost a key member of the team, whereas I might say that they won the overwhelming majority of games.

What I'm getting at is this: there isn't any written criteria. There is no magic formula. And yes, he has gotten the last 4 in/first 4 out 100% correct a few times. I have seen that happen.

 

[pseudonym]

Michigan was on Lunardi’s “Next Four Out.” They lost and can’t improve their resume. They should be out-out.

 

[pseudonym]

Pittsburgh is down 30 to Duke in the 2nd half. Hopefully, we can slide in front of them in the pecking order to avoid a play-in game.

 

[bullygrowl]

With a committee, how can anyone know what the criteria is? I mean, you might value the last 10 games of the season, whereas I might value the whole season. You might consider that a team just lost a key member of the team, whereas I might say that they won the overwhelming majority of games.

What I'm getting at is this: there isn't any written criteria. There is no magic formula. And yes, he has gotten the last 4 in/first 4 out 100% correct a few times. I have seen that happen.

Then you would be corrected by the other 11 members. You can't value the last ten, its the whole season. The Marquette win on a neutral court is just as valuable as if it happened today, for example. There are criteria set forth to follow. We are a lock. Then you might say but we had a losing conference record. You would be corrected again because that plays no part. Their are rules to follow and all the bracketologists apply them as well. We are a 10 or 11 and avoid the play in as I see it now.

 

[FlotownDawg]

I believe there actually are set criteria the selection committee is supposed to use when evaluating teams. The final 10 games of the season used to be one of them but it is no longer. Each game is given equal weight no matter when it happened in the season.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

Then you would be corrected by the other 11 members. You can't value the last ten, its the whole season. The Marquette win on a neutral court is just as valuable as if it happened today, for example. There are criteria set forth to follow. We are a lock. Then you might say but we had a losing conference record. You would be corrected again because that plays no part. Their are rules to follow and all the bracketologists apply them as well. We are a 10 or 11 and avoid the play in as I see it now.

It's a committee of 12 people. My point is that different people value different things.

If there was an absolute criteria, we wouldn't have any teams nervous on Sunday, because we would know who got in before the brackets were announced. Maybe not the matchups, but at least who got in. There is criteria, but no absolute.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

Then you would be corrected by the other 11 members. You can't value the last ten, its the whole season. The Marquette win on a neutral court is just as valuable as if it happened today, for example. There are criteria set forth to follow. We are a lock. Then you might say but we had a losing conference record. You would be corrected again because that plays no part. Their are rules to follow and all the bracketologists apply them as well. We are a 10 or 11 and avoid the play in as I see it now.

Let me be more specific.

If you had two teams with very close resumes, but one had slightly better whole season and finished a spot or two higher in the conference than another team that closed out the season winning 9 or 10 of the last 10, whereas the first team only won 4 or 5, but had maybe one win more than the second team. The second team might get in, but so might the first. It's how the committee members vote. I'm not saying one team can go winless until the last 10 and get in over another team with a vastly superior whole season.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

Let me be more specific.

If you had two teams with very close resumes, but one had slightly better whole season and finished a spot or two higher in the conference than another team that closed out the season winning 9 or 10 of the last 10, whereas the first team only won 4 or 5, but had maybe one win more than the second team. The second team might get in, but so might the first. It's how the committee members vote. I'm not saying one team can go winless until the last 10 and get in over another team with a vastly superior whole season.

Regardless of what they say, late season performance influences the comm.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

Lunardi has contacts on the selection committee. Yesterday he swapped us and Penn State even though neither of us played. My assumption is that was due something he heard from a source.

Possibly. It could also be that opponents of us and/or Penn State won or lost and that could have affected our SOS or NET. It's all fluid.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

This is the year to be an 8/9. There are going to be some really tight first/second round games this year. Alabama/Houston/Kansas should scare nobody.

Bama is straight up killers. They should scare everyone.

 

[Drebin]

Bama is straight up killers. They should scare everyone.

 

[Dawgbite]

Bama is straight up killers. They should scare everyone.

 

[MSUDAWGFAN]

Bama is straight up killers. They should scare everyone.

I would love to be on a team that played them. If my team lost, I woukd say in the post game press conference that I was scared they would have me killed. If we won, I would say that I was going to gonin hiding because I am scared they will put a hit on me. No sarcastericks

 

[trob115]

Ok St, Nevada , and UNC lost.