Big NIL and Invitations to Power Conferences

[Dawgg]

So, the Memphis FedEx NIL thread got me thinking about this. Does being a Group of 5 school with a huge NIL make you more or less attractive to the ACC or Big 12?
On one side, does Arizona or Texas Tech want to jeopardize their spot by voting in a member with deep pockets?
On the other side, if Memphis can use a deep NIL to really build a roster that gets them in as a perennial playoff participant, do they suddenly become a brand name that the ACC or Big 12 would see as something that adds overall value to the conference?

And on the other hand, with the expanded playoff would a Group of 5 team with a big NIL want to go to the ACC or Big 12 where they would have tougher competition or dominate the American or Sun Belt and get into the playoff more often?

 

[GloryDawg]

If they want in, they are going to have to go the SMU rout. Having NIL doesn't help get you into a P5. Bribing conference apparently does.

 

[pseudonym]

Does being a Group of 5 school with a huge NIL make you more or less attractive to the ACC or Big 12?

It certainly doesn't hurt.

Having NIL doesn't help get you into a P5.

No, but winning does.

Not sure if or when the FedEx deal will make a significant difference for Memphis football. They already have a decent basketball brand.

 

[thatsbaseball]

If they want in, they are going to have to go the SMU rout. Having NIL doesn't help get you into a P5. Bribing conference apparently does.

The thing about SMU is they bribed a conference that may not even be around in another decade.

 

[GloryDawg]

It certainly doesn't hurt.

No, but winning does.

Not sure if or when the FedEx deal will make a significant difference for Memphis football. They already have a decent basketball brand.

They have been to ten consecutive bowl games. They won their division in the AAC three times during that period. They win but they did not get into the Big 12. Just winning is not going to do it for them.

 

[patdog]

They have been to ten consecutive bowl games. They won their division in the AAC three times during that period. They win but they did not get into the Big 12. Just winning is not going to do it for them.

Yeah. Winning does nothing. It's all about how many TV viewers you'll bring. Apparently, UCF, Cincy & Houston bring more viewers.

 

[pseudonym]

They have been to ten consecutive bowl games. They won their division in the AAC three times during that period. They win but they did not get into the Big 12. Just winning is not going to do it for them.

I wasn't saying they haven't won enough in the recent past. To your point, there's not much more they could have done (other than have a year like 2021 Cincinnati).

Moving forward, they have the opportunity to make a 12-team CFP. That would move the needle a lot more than an AAC championship. It remains to be seen how possible that is after the FedEx deal.

Cincinnati is a similar case: decent basketball brand, made the CFP, added a state to the Big XII footprint.

 

[GloryDawg]

I wasn't saying they haven't won enough in the recent past. To your point, there's not much more they could have done (other than have a year like 2021 Cincinnati).

Moving forward, they have the opportunity to make a 12-team CFP. That would move the needle a lot more than an AAC championship. It remains to be seen how possible that is after the FedEx deal.

Cincinnati is a similar case: decent basketball brand, made the CFP, added a state to the Big XII footprint.

Obviously, I was going by my opinion. It doesn't mean anything to anyone but me. I think the P4's are close for now.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

You have 2 ways to get this done, if you're G5 wanting into the P4.

1) Be an attractive enough brand, that garners TV eyeballs;
2) Buy your way in (SMU);

#1 is kind of luck of the draw - think Utah, TCU, etc. and more recently UCF, Houston, etc. Have to be the most attractive brand at a time when conferences are expanding.

So to answer your question, no, the NIL alone does not get you in. To the extent it helps you win and build your brand, it does. But that takes time.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Things that hurt Memphis:
1. Their TV market is already very split up watching various other games on Saturdays, not sure how many new eyeballs they would bring to a broadcast.

2. They have clearly demonstrated they are willing to pay the recruits, so if they were in a major conference, they will likely do well. So to your point, yes, I think that prevents them from gaining entry to a big conference. Supposedly Fred Smith offered the Big12 between $12-20 million to get them in when A&M and Missouri left.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

Things that hurt Memphis:
1. Their TV market is already very split up watching various other games on Saturdays, not sure how many new eyeballs they would bring to a broadcast.

2. They have clearly demonstrated they are willing to pay the recruits, so if they were in a major conference, they will likely do well. So to your point, yes, I think that prevents them from gaining entry to a big conference. Supposedly Fred Smith offered the Big12 between $12-20 million to get them in when A&M and Missouri left.

It’s still not ALL about NIL, though. You still have to have a positive football culture and fanbase, that attracts players.

I mean I guess you could overpay, but that strategy hasn’t really proven to work that well. Maybe it can, ie an aTm or Ole Miss. but I’ll reserve judgement until I see one of those actually make like the final four or something.

 

[Called3rdstrikedawg]

Memphis used to be a hot bed for football talent. No so much any more. But enough so that if FEDEX can help them keep the home grown talent, they can continue to be a 9 win team in the AAC.

SMU just has old money.
Houston is a Top 4 TV market but University of Houston is probably a distant 3rd in fandom behind A&M and Texas. Maybe even 4th or 5th behind Prairie View and Texas Southern based on Houston demographics.

 

[Dawgg]

No, but winning does.

I get what you're saying, but I feel like it has to be more than winning though. Winning may get you noticed and get people saying "they deserve better", but that wasn't enough for Boise State.

You have 3 ways to get this done, if you're G5 wanting into the P4.

1) Be an attractive enough brand, that garners TV eyeballs;
2) Buy your way in (SMU);

#1 is kind of luck of the draw - think Utah, TCU, etc. and more recently UCF, Houston, etc. Have to be the most attractive brand at a time when conferences are expanding.

So to answer your question, no, the NIL alone does not get you in. To the extent it helps you win and build your brand, it does. But that takes time.

The G5/Independent teams that have gotten picked up by the Pac-12, Big 12, or ACC over the past, say, 15 years, weren't necessarily world beaters or national brands (outside maybe BYU). Sure, they all had at least 1 good season in the previous 10, but those additions were based a lot more on being in or near a geographical metro of 1 million plus:
TCU - Dallas-Fort Worth (7.7 Million Metro)
SMU - Dallas-Fort Worth (7.7 Million Metro)
UCF - Orlando (2.8 Million Metro)
Louisville - Louisville (1.3 Million Metro)
Cincinnati - Cincinnati (2.2 Million Metro)
Houston - Houston (7.1 Million Metro)
Utah - Salt Lake City (1.2 Million Metro)
BYU - Salt Lake City (1.2 Million Metro)

Memphis is sitting there with a 1.3 Million population Metro area.

Not sure how much metro matters once the standalone ESPN and ESPN/Fox Sports/WBD sports streaming services launch.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

The G5/Independent teams that have gotten picked up by the Pac-12, Big 12, or ACC over the past, say, 15 years, weren't necessarily world beaters or national brands (outside maybe BYU). Sure, they all had at least 1 good season in the previous 10, but those additions were based a lot more on being in or near a geographical metro of 1 million plus:
TCU - Dallas-Fort Worth (7.7 Million Metro)
SMU - Dallas-Fort Worth (7.7 Million Metro)
UCF - Orlando (2.8 Million Metro)
Louisville - Louisville (1.3 Million Metro)
Cincinnati - Cincinnati (2.2 Million Metro)
Houston - Houston (7.1 Million Metro)
Utah - Salt Lake City (1.2 Million Metro)
BYU - Salt Lake City (1.2 Million Metro)

Memphis is sitting there with a 1.3 Million population Metro area.

Not sure how much metro matters once the standalone ESPN and ESPN/Fox Sports/WBD sports streaming services launch.

They were pretty much the best overall brands at the time, though. And a lot of things go into your 'brand' - and having a viable urban area around certainly helps that cause.

Meanwhile, here in the Sip......