Unc has zero impact upon PSU’s NY6 possibilities. If unc wins the ACC, they are locked into the Orange bowl regardless of their ranking. If they lose the ACC championship game to Clemson, than they are out of the picture and it’s Clemson to the CFP or Orange Bowl. If Clemson goes to the cfp, than it’s unc to the orange. Regardless, unc has no impact upon PSU other than they might be our opponent in the orange bowl.
Penn State has two losses to top 5 teams but no wins over ranked teams. UNC has lost to UND and has no other wins against ranked teams except if they win against NC State. The Clemson/UNC winner goes to the Orange, neither has a shot at the CFP. Assuming both Clemson and UNC win out, those are two 11-1 teams vying for a conference title. I can't see an 11-2 UNC being overlooked for a NY6 bowl; assuming UNC wins the ACC, I can't see an 11-2 Clemson being overlooked either.
The B1G has OSU and UM ranked in the top 5 and that's it. The winner of THE GAME gets a trip to the CFP while the loser either squeaks into the CFP or (more likely) gets a NY6 bid. PSU is currently ranked 14. Other than Washington, there are no other 8-2 P5 teams ranked below PSU. I would not be surprised to see UNC jump PSU this week.
My guess is PSU in the Citrus against Ole Miss. I would not be surprised to see two SEC teams make the CFP and two SEC teams make NY6 bowls.