If you are in the camp that Arnett has to make a bowl game to keep his job, does that count if he makes one at 5-7? I'm not gonna lie. I want to make a bowl game, even if we make it at 5-7.
As you probably know, the selection of 5-7 teams for bowl games is based off their APR. We are tied for 19th this year with Auburn and Boston College. I think we lose the tiebreaker so essentially that makes us 21st.
Of the 20 teams ahead of us, 11 of them either already have or will have six wins (Alabama, Ohio St, Missouri, Washington, Clemson, Wisconsin, etc). That puts us at 10th in the pecking order.
I don't know a great prediction tool for remaining games. I used the one on Warren Nolan. That actually has us winning three more games and getting to six, which would render this moot. It also predicts Auburn to get to 7 wins, and has Minnesota and Boise State also getting to 6 wins.
If you care, the teams ahead of us who will be trying to at least get to 5 wins are:
I know there will be a lot of opinions on making a bowl game at 5-7. We didn't earn it, just end the season already, we lose money on bowl games, blah blah blah. I hear ya. I'm for a bowl game for at least three reasons: 1) The players get to experience playing in a bowl no matter how minor it is; 2) The extra practices; 3) It make bowl season more interesting for me when we are part of it.
So treat this however you please. I'll be using the list above as a rooting guide and cheering AGAINST any of these teams getting to 5 wins so our chances of being invited go up.
As you probably know, the selection of 5-7 teams for bowl games is based off their APR. We are tied for 19th this year with Auburn and Boston College. I think we lose the tiebreaker so essentially that makes us 21st.
Of the 20 teams ahead of us, 11 of them either already have or will have six wins (Alabama, Ohio St, Missouri, Washington, Clemson, Wisconsin, etc). That puts us at 10th in the pecking order.
I don't know a great prediction tool for remaining games. I used the one on Warren Nolan. That actually has us winning three more games and getting to six, which would render this moot. It also predicts Auburn to get to 7 wins, and has Minnesota and Boise State also getting to 6 wins.
If you care, the teams ahead of us who will be trying to at least get to 5 wins are:
Apr Rank | School | W | L | Remaining Schedule | Projected wins | Proj Total |
1 | Northwestern | 3 | 3 | Nebraksa, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois | 0 | 3 |
6 | Cincinnati | 2 | 4 | Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, Houston, West VA, Kansas | 3 | 5 |
8 | Minnesota | 3 | 3 | Iowa, Mich State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin | 3 | 6 |
8 | Wake Forest | 3 | 3 | Pitt, FSU, Duke, NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse | 2 | 5 |
13 | Boise State | 3 | 4 | Wyoming, Fresno St, New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force | 3 | 6 |
15 | Iowa State | 4 | 3 | Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Texas, Kansas State | 1 | 5 |
15 | Rice | 3 | 3 | Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, UTSA, Charlotte, FAU | 1 | 4 |
19 | Auburn | 3 | 3 | Ole Miss, State, Vandy, Arkansas, New Mexico State, Bama | 4 | 7 |
19 | Boston College | 3 | 3 | Ga Tech, UConn, Syracuse, Va Tech, Pitt, Miami | 2 | 5 |
19 | Mississippi State | 3 | 3 | Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Southern Miss, Ole Miss | 3 | 6 |
I know there will be a lot of opinions on making a bowl game at 5-7. We didn't earn it, just end the season already, we lose money on bowl games, blah blah blah. I hear ya. I'm for a bowl game for at least three reasons: 1) The players get to experience playing in a bowl no matter how minor it is; 2) The extra practices; 3) It make bowl season more interesting for me when we are part of it.
So treat this however you please. I'll be using the list above as a rooting guide and cheering AGAINST any of these teams getting to 5 wins so our chances of being invited go up.