Bowl Destinations - Analysis of Sugar, Citrus and Others

[615dawg]

Bowl Projections by media outlets are worthless. Read this thread for real analysis.

The Sugar Bowl was in play headed into last week. Its still possible, but those possibilities dropped big time.

First, the good news:
We absolutely had to have two results for that to continue - we had to beat TSU and Alabama had to beat Arkansas. Both of those happened and technically, the Sugar is in play.

Now, the bad news:
There were about 6 games where we needed 2-3 results to help us move up in the CFP rankings. We went 0-for-6. Utah beat Oregon, UTSA came back and beat UAB, Illinois lost to Iowa. We got no help. In fact, unless the committee decides to have us jump UTSA, we will probably move up one spot this week to No. 24. In addition, Ole Miss got some help with teams above them losing, so they are moving up as well.

The computer simulation I ran shows that 997 times out of 1000, we needed to be within 10 spots of Ole Miss headed into the Egg Bowl for the Sugar to be in play. The three simulated results that had us jumping Ole Miss after an Egg Bowl win - 2 had us with 11 and one had us within 12 spots. We're probably going to be 14 spots behind.

I ran a simulation with Ole Miss 10 and us 24, and we jump them 1 time out of 1340 with this result:

Mississippi State 42, Ole Miss 6

An absolute blowout had us jumping 7 spots to 17 and Ole Miss dropping 9 spots to 19. So that's what its going to take for the Sugar Bowl. An absolute blowout.


But the Citrus Bowl is certainly in play. If we beat Ole Miss, we will be in a pool presented to the Citrus Bowl that can only include us, Kentucky and Ole Miss and/or Texas A&M. We will be 2-0 or 3-0 against everyone in that pool. The Citrus doesn't have to pick us, but it would be absolute robbery if they do not. The Citrus Bowl pays out $8.2 million.

If we get absolutely screwed, or in the unlikely event we lose to those shitbirds, we will drop to the Tier 2 bowls. The SEC places those without rhyme or reason. The Outback is the perceived best of that bunch but the SEC swears they are all even. I personally think we will end up in Houston if we drop to this tier. Its the only one we've never been to. The Texas Bowl payout is $6.4 million, which is the same as the Outback.

The Music City Bowl pays $5.7 million, The Gator Bowl is next at $5.3 million, the Liberty and Dukes Mayo are at $4.7 million.

 

[aTotal360]

36 point EB victory? Are you on drugs?

We win by 40+.

 

[BoDawg.sixpack]

Who does it look like we'd play in the Citrus?

 

[615dawg]

Probably:

Michigan State if they beat Penn State
Wisconsin if they don't
Possibly Penn State if they beat Michigan State and Wisconsin wins the B1G Championship.

 

[patdog]

The Citrus isn't going to choose an 8-4 MSU team over a 9-3 A&M or Mississippi team. Just win the Egg Bowl and enjoy the Music City, Gator or Liberty bowl.

 

[klong-dog]

The Citrus isn't going to choose an 8-4 MSU team over a 9-3 A&M or Mississippi team. Just win the Egg Bowl and enjoy the Music City, Gator or Liberty bowl.

Not normally but we do have something on our side... Mike Leach and the air raid

 

[ronpolk]

The Citrus isn't going to choose an 8-4 MSU team over a 9-3 A&M or Mississippi team. Just win the Egg Bowl and enjoy the Music City, Gator or Liberty bowl.

I don’t think the bowl chooses… doesn’t the SEC decide who goes where?

With that said, I agree with the thought that if it comes down to A&M vs State for the citrus, we likely get screwed

 

[Smoked Toag]

The Citrus isn't going to choose an 8-4 MSU team over a 9-3 A&M or Mississippi team. Just win the Egg Bowl and enjoy the Music City, Gator or Liberty bowl.

This proves you don't know what's going on. We aren't going to the Music City or Gator Bowls, regardless.

 

[615dawg]

Citrus is the only one that chooses. They will have their pick of the 5-3 teams.

 

[patdog]

Citrus Bowl selects. Only criteria is

the Citrus Bowl is contractually obligated to select the winningest Big Ten and SEC teams that do not make a CFP game (semifinal or New Year's Six Bowl), or a team within one win of the winningest in its conference

So, they get their choice between A&M, UM, UK and MSU.

 

[Drebin]

The CFP ranking decides playoff and NY6 Bowls. Then the bowls pick what's left in their traditional pecking order. So, if Arkansas, Kentucky, or A&M is ranked ahead of us in the CFP ranking, they're getting the Citrus.

 

[patdog]

Close but not quite. The Citrus isn't obligated to follow the CFP rankings, they must choose either the winningest team remaining or a team within 1 win of the winningest team remaining. Then the SEC offices "works with" the group of 6 bowls to match teams and bowls.

 

[615dawg]

Citrus has nothing to do with CFP rankings. They may use them but they have no obligation to.

Lets say that we beat Ole Miss and A&M beats LSU. The teams in the Citrus pool will be a 9-3 Ole Miss, a 9-3 Kentucky, a 9-3 Texas A&M and an 8-4 Mississippi State. Normally, you wouldn't even consider State, but in this case, State would be 3-0 against the other 3 and have the same SEC record.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

My guess is citrus or outback. Can’t slip up against ole miss. If we do, I think gator bowl or Mayo Bowl. I think sugar bowl is out. I think Tamu ole miss or bama end up there maybe Arkansas. Losing to Memphis and LSU hurt us there.

 

[patdog]

You don't know that. We'll definitely get one of the better group of 6 bowls if we win the Egg Bowl.

 

[johnson86-1]

Citrus has nothing to do with CFP rankings. They may use them but they have no obligation to.

Lets say that we beat Ole Miss and A&M beats LSU. The teams in the Citrus pool will be a 9-3 Ole Miss, a 9-3 Kentucky, a 9-3 Texas A&M and an 8-4 Mississippi State. Normally, you wouldn't even consider State, but in this case, State would be 3-0 against the other 3 and have the same SEC record.

Doesn't matter I guess since everybody will be within one win of each other either way, but does "winningest team" mean conference record? Or overall record?

 

[johnson86-1]

Bowl Projections by media outlets are worthless. Read this thread for real analysis.

The Sugar Bowl was in play headed into last week. Its still possible, but those possibilities dropped big time.

First, the good news:
We absolutely had to have two results for that to continue - we had to beat TSU and Alabama had to beat Arkansas. Both of those happened and technically, the Sugar is in play.

Now, the bad news:
There were about 6 games where we needed 2-3 results to help us move up in the CFP rankings. We went 0-for-6. Utah beat Oregon, UTSA came back and beat UAB, Illinois lost to Iowa. We got no help. In fact, unless the committee decides to have us jump UTSA, we will probably move up one spot this week to No. 24. In addition, Ole Miss got some help with teams above them losing, so they are moving up as well.

The computer simulation I ran shows that 997 times out of 1000, we needed to be within 10 spots of Ole Miss headed into the Egg Bowl for the Sugar to be in play. The three simulated results that had us jumping Ole Miss after an Egg Bowl win - 2 had us with 11 and one had us within 12 spots. We're probably going to be 14 spots behind.

I ran a simulation with Ole Miss 10 and us 24, and we jump them 1 time out of 1340 with this result:

Mississippi State 42, Ole Miss 6

An absolute blowout had us jumping 7 spots to 17 and Ole Miss dropping 9 spots to 19. So that's what its going to take for the Sugar Bowl. An absolute blowout.


But the Citrus Bowl is certainly in play. If we beat Ole Miss, we will be in a pool presented to the Citrus Bowl that can only include us, Kentucky and Ole Miss and/or Texas A&M. We will be 2-0 or 3-0 against everyone in that pool. The Citrus doesn't have to pick us, but it would be absolute robbery if they do not. The Citrus Bowl pays out $8.2 million.

If we get absolutely screwed, or in the unlikely event we lose to those shitbirds, we will drop to the Tier 2 bowls. The SEC places those without rhyme or reason. The Outback is the perceived best of that bunch but the SEC swears they are all even. I personally think we will end up in Houston if we drop to this tier. Its the only one we've never been to. The Texas Bowl payout is $6.4 million, which is the same as the Outback.

The Music City Bowl pays $5.7 million, The Gator Bowl is next at $5.3 million, the Liberty and Dukes Mayo are at $4.7 million.

In the Mississippi State 42, Ole Miss 6 simulation, what did A&M do? I just don't see us jumping both? I'm afraid we need to blow out Ole Miss and for A&M to lose to LSU.


Also, the overall payouts don't matter to us. I think all that money gets pooled and we get 1/15th of it (a share for each school and the conference). You do get different amounts for different bowls to cover expenses. So we'd get more money for going to the Sugar or going to the Citrus I assume. I don't know how the SEC treats the group of bowls, but I assume since they insist they are all equal they give each participant the same amount of money for expenses.

 

[ronpolk]

Citrus is the only one that chooses. They will have their pick of the 5-3 teams.

Got it… so a A&M loss to LSU helps our chances at the citrus

 

[MSUDC11]

At this point I think either enough happens for us to go to the Citrus Bowl or we are Houston bound for the Texas Bowl. I do not think the Outback Bowl wants us back after our fans didn't show up for it three years ago, and the Texas Bowl has an equal payout anyway.

 

[Duke Humphrey]

I don’t expect us to go back to Outback anytime soon

My guess is citrus or outback.

They didn’t want us in 2018, but SEC forced us there. And then we didn’t have a great showing.

Further, supposedly our admin and staff didn’t think it was a great experience, which is maybe due to the bowl’s not wanting us. Their leadership has reputation for being arrogant and self inflated sense of importance.

 

[AtlantaDawg]

Not normally but we do have something on our side... Mike Leach and the air raid

I agree. I believe that a lot of football fans enjoy watching Leach’s Air Raid offense. I really enjoy watching us play, and we are always in it until the end (except against a pissed off Bama team after A&M beat them). My bet is that bowl games pick us over A&M, KY, and possibly Ole Miss if we win by 2 scores. Based on my evaluation, if we beat Ole Miss, we will be the 3rd best team behind GA and Bama in the SEC, based on SEC record and head to head vs those 3 teams.

 

[615dawg]

They didn’t want us in 2018, but SEC forced us there. And then we didn’t have a great showing.

Further, supposedly our admin and staff didn’t think it was a great experience, which is maybe due to the bowl’s not wanting us. Their leadership has reputation for being arrogant and self inflated sense of importance.

I would agree that the Outback is out. There is something mutual between our administration and their bowl that goes back a long time. Supposedly during our 1999 season when we were 10-2 and they took a 7 win Georgia team over us the head of the Outback Bowl made some disparaging comments about MSU and the state of Mississippi in general.

If we lose or the Citrus doesn't work out, I'm feeling like its the Texas Bowl against a Big 12 team - likely Iowa State. Its in a great stadium, its a new bowl experience for our fanbase - it just sucks that its on Tuesday, 1/4.

We get 25% of the bowl payout plus 1/15 of the remaining 75%.

 

[615dawg]

A&M was a loser in all simulations. I think its going to take that as well.

 

[dawgstudent]

I appreciate 615dawg giving us all this info. This site is free. Unreal.

 

[CoolDawg]

The real interesting thing to me will be whether the Citrus Bowl would want OM if the Lane Train pulls out of Oxford and a lame duck or interim coaching staff was left to coach in the bowl game.

 

[maroonwhitedawg3dddd]

I appreciate 615dawg giving us all this info. This site is free. Unreal.

Great info indeed!!

 

[ezsoil]

They didn’t want us in 2018, but SEC forced us there. And then we didn’t have a great showing.

Further, supposedly our admin and staff didn’t think it was a great experience, which is maybe due to the bowl’s not wanting us. Their leadership has reputation for being arrogant and self inflated sense of importance.

this is true ...and the citrus won't take us if there is any sort of a tie ....that being said because the league likes to rotate ....I'm betting we are going to Houston win or lose we have not been to that bowl and last played in the 2013 opener ...my back up bet would be Charlotte since it's been 5 years since we have been there ...