Bracketology Thoughts, Pt. 7

[Maroon Eagle]

Here's part seven of my thoughts regarding how I think the bracket will work. Since this is tournament week, I'll be posting daily updates.

Yesterday's thoughts are here.
Sunday's thoughts can be found here.
March 2's thoughts <font color="#800000">are here</font>.

(x - conference leader; z - conference champion & winner of NCAA tournament berth)

1-seed
xTennessee
xUCLA
xMemphis
xNorth Carolina

2-seed
xGeorgetown
Duke
xTexas
Kansas

3-seed
xXavier
Louisville
xWisconsin
Notre Dame

4-seed
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Stanford
Connecticut

5-seed
Michigan State
zDrake
Indiana
xButler

6-seed
xBrigham Young
Washington State
Marquette
Clemson

Gonzaga's loss in the WCC final means they drop. Marquette moves up to the 6-seed.

7-seed
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh
Southern California
UNLV

With losses by Gonzaga (formerly a 6-seed) and South Alabama, the Jaguars move down from the 7-seed, Marquette moves to the 6-seed, and USC and UNLV become 7-seeds. I'm not especially happy with me placing UNLV here. The committee tends to not give much respect to MWC teams as far as seeding is concerned, and the Running Rebels will probably be an 8 or 9 seed.

8-seed
Gonzaga
xKent State
Oklahoma
Miami, FL

Miami moves up to and Gonzaga falls to the 8-seed.

9-seed
West Virginia
Baylor
Kansas State
Kentucky

Kentucky moves up to the 9-seed.

10-seed
St. Mary's
Illinois State
zDavidson
Arkansas

Davidson earns an automatic bid as champions of the Southern and moves up to the 10-seed.

11-seed
Massachusetts
Temple
Syracuse
xWestern Kentucky

The Hilltoppers enter the bracket as the highest seeded team remaining in the Sun Belt tournament.

12-seed
Texas A&M
Arizona
Ohio State
South Alabama

With their loss in the Sun Belt semifinals, South Alabama falls to the 12-seed.

13-seed
xStephen F. Austin
xOral Roberts
zGeorge Mason
zSan Diego

San Diego enters the bracket as winners of the WCC tournament. George Mason earns the Colonial automatic bid.

14-seed
zCornell
xUC Santa Barbara
xUtah State
zSiena

Siena earns the MAAC automatic bid and moves to the 14-seed.

15-seed
zAustin Peay
xMaryland-Baltimore County
xAmerican
zBelmont

Belmont drops to the 15-seed.

16-seed
xPortland State
xMorgan State
zWinthrop
Play-in
xSacred Heart
xAlabama State

In the Bracket
San Diego
Western Kentucky

Out of the Bracket
New Mexico
Virginia Tech

Last Four In:
Texas A&M
Arizona
Ohio State
South Alabama

I decided to go with a school in the upper half of the top two power conferences in the nation: Texas A&M. Ohio State was deserving of some notice after their win over Purdue. Arizona's strength of schedule is keeping them in the picture. South Alabama is barely hanging on after their loss in the Sun Belt semifinals.

Last Four Out:
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
St. Joseph's
UAB

The Hawks' losing 3 of 4 hurt. UAB are second in CUSA, but have five bad losses. Virginia Tech may be fourth in the ACC, but they've played a weak schedule. New Mexico is facing the wrath of the bubble.

Next Four Out:
Mississippi
Florida
Virginia Commonwealth
Oregon

The Rebels are making a run, but have five bad losses. Florida continues to struggle. Virginia Commonwealth needed to win the Colonial tournament. If history is any past indication, their RPI is too low to be considered for an at-large berth. Oregon finished 9-9 in the Pac-10 and making a decent case for a bid.

Edited comments under Last Four In & Last Four Out because I was too tired to notice that I forgot make a couple changes before posting.

 

[orthodawg08]

[No message]

 

[Maroon Eagle]

I'm probably paying too much attention to the Rebels' RPI (#28), but they are second in the conference and are hosting the conference tournament. There's a part of me that's jealous of the MWC. Basketball tournaments in Las Vegas. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a Final Four there sometime, but Las Vegas would need a Dome.

 

[Badon]

Florida has tons of motivation this week, yes. But we have alot of moving we can do with a conference tournament run. I don't see Florida out-hearting us if they even get by Bama.

 

[RaleighDawg.sixpack]

to do with Davidson. Long winning streak, good coach, very hot, great shooter (Stephon Curry)...sounds a little like Xavier.

 

[Badon]

I have that eerie feeling that we'll be seeing Davidson in Round 1.

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[RaleighDawg.sixpack]

so do I. I hear plenty about how good they are here in Raleigh. In fact, I got to see them play a few games against Duke, UNC, and NC State. They were pretty competitive in every one of those games, though they didn't win any of them. Curry is the real deal, and we struggle defending strong individual three-point shooters. Not a good mix.