Bracketology thoughts, Pt. IV

[Maroon Eagle]

Here's version 4.0 of my thoughts regarding how I think the bracket will work. The previous week's thoughts can can be found here.

1-seed
xTennessee
xDuke
xMemphis
North Carolina

The Tar Heels move up to the 1-seed.

2-seed
xGeorgetown
xUCLA
xTexas
Kansas

Texas moves down to the 2-seed. The Hoyas lead the Big East pending today's Louisville game.

3-seed
xXavier
Louisville
Wisconsin
Stanford

4-seed
xPurdue
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Connecticut

5-seed
Michigan State
Notre Dame
xDrake
xButler

6-seed
Marquette
Washington State
xGonzaga
Clemson

7-seed
xBrigham Young
xSouth Alabama
Mississippi State
Pittsburgh

8-seed
Arkansas
UNLV
Southern California
St. Mary's

9-seed
xKent State
Baylor
Miami, FL
Arizona

10-seed
Kansas State
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Illinois State

11-seed
xVirginia Commonwealth
St. Joseph's
Kentucky
Massachusetts

12-seed
xDavidson
Texas A&M
Maryland
UAB

Maryland and UAB enter the bracket. The Blazers have had a strong record in their past ten games and have earned consideration while other schools are playing their ways out of the tournament.

13-seed
xCornell
xOral Roberts
Virginia Tech
Southern Illinois

Virginia Tech and Southern Illinois enter the bracket.

14-seed
xAustin Peay
xBelmont
xMaryland-Baltimore County
xPortland State

15-seed
xBoise State
xAmerican
xCal State Northridge
xRobert Morris

16-seed
xLamar
xMorgan State
xUNC Asheville
Play-in
xLoyola (Md.)
xAlabama State

UNC Asheville and Loyola (Md.) enter the bracket as leaders of the Big South and the MAAC. Both colleges own tiebreaker advantages. Lamar still leads the Southland over Stephen F. Austin. What with both teams losing Saturday, there is no chance for an at-large berth for the Lumberjacks who are now ranked #61. Loyola and Alabama State are in the play-in game.

In the Bracket
Loyola (Md.)
Maryland
Southern Illinois
UAB
UNC Asheville
Virginia Tech

Out of the Bracket
Florida
New Mexico
Niagara
Ohio State
Syracuse
Winthrop

Last Four In:
Texas A&M
Maryland
Virginia Tech
Southern Illinois

Tough decisions all. I decided in the end to generally go with schools that were in the upper half of the top two power conferences in the nation. Southern Illinois is my last team and could be considered a questionable pick since they did lose a home game to Illinois State. However, the Salukis did go 7-3 in the last ten games of the season and have an RPI rank of 48.

Last Four Out:
New Mexico
Western Kentucky
Syracuse
Arizona State

The Lobos' home loss to BYU hurt. Western Kentucky's best chance to make the dance is to win the Sun Belt tournament. Syracuse losing five of their last six is hurting them. Arizona State is quietly sneaking into consideration. They have a 66 RPI, but are 8-8 in the Pac-10 and have wins against Xavier, Arizona (twice), and Stanford.

Next Four Out:
Ohio State
Florida
Texas Tech
Dayton

Ohio State and Florida have struggled of late. Texas Tech is playing themselves into consideration, but it may be too little too late. Dayton is here as a courtesy since the Flyers have a top 40 RPI even though they are 11th in the Atlantic 10.

 

[habibistate]

they are also losing against ucla right now pretty good by 8 with 9 to play in first half.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

and are as of Saturday night 5-6 against Top 50 teams... The NCAA tends to reward those colleges who play tough teams, and the Wildcats have.

Edited to add: Now they're 25 in the RPI and 5-7 against top 50 teams. The thing about Arizona in particular, and generally the schools seeded 9-12 is that they make predictions very difficult. Regarding the teams I've seeded 9-12, they're generally:
1. Struggling major conference teams;
2. Mid-major teams with good RPI and have done well in the last ten games; or
3. Kentucky, which has a likely seed anywhere from 10 to 13 thanks in part to Patterson's injury.

I think Arizona is better than any 11-seed, so they wouldn't drop that far. Of the 10-seeds, Illinois State has the best profile, but the MVC doesn't get respect, the second best profile belongs to West Virginia, so I'd swap the Wildcats and Mountaineers.

 

[drunkernhelldawg]

I hope we get on a side with Duke and Kansas. I favor North Carolina to win it all.

I agree that we're a 7 seed now. Got a good shot to get to six and prob have to win the SECT to get to four. Win both games this week and get between five and 6.

If Tenn loses and then loses at the SECT, they'll prob slip to two. I'm not convinced Duke get a 1 seed. I've only seen them a little this season, and I didn't think they were scary.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

UNC's good. They've got a great chance as does Duke. What makes me keep the Blue Devils a 1-seed is the fact that they're leading the ACC.

MSU could get a 4-seed, but that means the team has to win the remainder of their games, regular season and tournament.

I don't think Tennessee will slip to a 2-seed. The Volunteers are currently #1 in the RPI and have the #2 SOS, which is awfully close to a lock.

I'm thinking when the selections are announced that the 1-seeds will be Tennessee, the ACC tournament winner (if UNC or Duke), Memphis, and the Big 12 tournament winner (if Kansas or Texas) with UCLA waiting for a team to slip up.