Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

Maroon Eagle

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

...and not the first game.

Buy. USM's pitching depth isn't the greatest in the world thanksto academicsso the Eagles take a chance against MSU and not play their ace pitcher.
 

57stratdawg

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

not throwing their #1 is in the first game is GT.

Who are they going to start then? We already faced one midweek guy for them in Jackson didn't we? That sounds like a bad idea.
 

Orpheus

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

Coach Berry has already said that McInnis will be the starter against MSU.
 

hankp

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

Starting McInnis in game 1 means they will be trying to beat Georgia Tech by committee on Saturday. I would not start McInnis against Mississippi State. And for that matter, if MSU beat me, I would not start McInnis in game 2 against Austin Peay. I would be fine risking going home without pitching my ace because I feel it is the best strategy you can implement to win this tournament setup.

You are not going to beat Ga Tech twice pitching your #4 and #5 guys. The important game is game two in the winners bracket, not game the first game of the tournament. If you win game one and lose game two, you are in the same exact boat had you lost game one and won game two. You play the same number of games.

If I were a fan of USM, I would want McInnis for Ga Tech. If we lost to MSU on Friday, I would not pitch McInnis against Austin Peay. With the #2 and #3 out, they have to gamble.
 

engie

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

Unless Berry knows something that the rest of us do not...
That first game is all that matters. You can't gameplan much past it, since losing it would mean winning 4 games in 2 days, on the road, when your already an underdog. Almost impossible to make a Super if you lose the first one.

I'd def throw McInnis, while hoping he A) goes VERY deep in the game, as in 8+ innings to save the rest of the pitchers or B) we jump out to an 8-10 run lead in the first few innings while the pitch count is low, so I feel good about coming back with him on Sunday... JMO
 

hankp

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

engie said:
Unless Berry knows something that the rest of us do not...
That first game is all that matters. You can't gameplan much past it, since losing it would mean winning 4 games in 2 days, on the road, when your already an underdog. Almost impossible to make a Super if you lose the first one.

I'd def throw McInnis, while hoping he A) goes VERY deep in the game, as in 8+ innings to save the rest of the pitchers or B) we jump out to an 8-10 run lead in the first few innings while the pitch count is low, so I feel good about coming back with him on Sunday... JMO
You do realize that if you win game 1 and lose game 2, your team will still be required to win 4 games on the road to win the tournament? If you are a USM fan, are you comfortable knowing that you are going to have to beat Ga Tech twice with a committee-midweek rotation? You can get them one time using that strategy, but good luck stealing two at their place using your #4 and #5.
 

QuaoarsKing

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

Winning game 1 and losing game 2 is no different than losing game 1 and winning game 2.<div>
</div><div>There's no real advantage unless you win BOTH of the first 2. Since neither MSU nor USM is in serious danger of losing to Austin Peay with our third starter (note -- I'm assuming AP is throwing their ace at GT Friday?), it makes sense for both MSU and USM to save the best pitcher to play Georgia Tech, who is almost certainly also saving their ace for game 2, because that gives the best chance of winning BOTH games.</div>
 

engie

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

hankp said:
Starting McInnis in game 1 means they will be trying to beat Georgia Tech by committee on Saturday. I would not start McInnis against Mississippi State. And for that matter, if MSU beat me, I would not start McInnis in game 2 against Austin Peay. I would be fine risking going home without pitching my ace because I feel it is the best strategy you can implement to win this tournament setup.

You are not going to beat Ga Tech twice pitching your #4 and #5 guys. The important game is game two in the winners bracket, not game the first game of the tournament. If you win game one and lose game two, you are in the same exact boat had you lost game one and won game two. You play the same number of games.

If I were a fan of USM, I would want McInnis for Ga Tech. If we lost to MSU on Friday, I would not pitch McInnis against Austin Peay. With the #2 and #3 out, they have to gamble.


Those are excellent points...I hadn't considered saving him beyond the first game as a possibility, and your approach definitely makes sense. The issue I have is that if you lose to State, beat Peay, who do you throw in your second Saturday game against State? What if Tech loses the winner's bracket game and you've got to turn around and face them in the loser's bracket? Do you burn McInnis then? IMO If you lose the first one saving him, you've got to keep saving him until Sunday. This leaves the overwhelming possibility that you go home without throwing your ace...and the backlash from that would be tremendous(correct or incorrect). Now, if you happen to make it to Sunday, you like your chances with McInnis vs their 3 or 4 guy, and you essentially turn it into a one-game winner-take-all...which is EXACTLY what you want as a road underdog...

It really boils down to an overwhelming truth about baseball...your decision-making as a manager really boils down to how well you understand and have a feel for your personnel...and how they, in turn, manage to execute the gameplan. Lack of execution makes you look like a fool regardless, where you will be second-guessed mercilessly! At the same time, successful execution makes you look like a genius, where everyone "had your back the whole time!"
 

bruiser.sixpack

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

As to you synopsis, you say no difference in winning 1/losing 2 than losing 1 winning 2. But there is one.

Say you win 1, and the favorite loses their 1st. Now you are in winners bracket and the 1 seed is in losers bracket. Has to be an adrenalin boost right there. And then you will know if the 1 seed will be your opponent in game 5 or if you win game 4, you are in Championship game. There are some advantages to winning game 1 and I think this is one of them.

Pitch you ACE in game 1. Especially since your 2 & 3 may not be available. Lose game 1 with your 4 and then you put surviival mode on your ace and he may press more than normal.
 

57stratdawg

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

hankp said:
Starting McInnis in game 1 means they will be trying to beat Georgia Tech by committee on Saturday. I would not start McInnis against Mississippi State. And for that matter, if MSU beat me, I would not start McInnis in game 2 against Austin Peay. I would be fine risking going home without pitching my ace because I feel it is the best strategy you can implement to win this tournament setup.

You are not going to beat Ga Tech twice pitching your #4 and #5 guys. The important game is game two in the winners bracket, not game the first game of the tournament. If you win game one and lose game two, you are in the same exact boat had you lost game one and won game two. You play the same number of games.

If I were a fan of USM, I would want McInnis for Ga Tech. If we lost to MSU on Friday, I would not pitch McInnis against Austin Peay. With the #2 and #3 out, they have to gamble.
If they went 0-2 and never started McInnis, especially since they have pitchers out.

It really isn't even a question. He's going to throw against MSU. USM's only chance is to out pitch us in the first game, then out score GT in the 2nd game.
 

Todd4State

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

But I hope they pitch their number four guy since 2 and 3 are ineligible.

Sounds like they are going to throw McInnis. We're too good of a team for them to risk not throwing their ace.

I think they're screwed anyway because of the fact that they have so many pitchers ineligible.
 

maroonmania

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

because you guys all know that USM beating MSU means much more to them than a mere regional win. Our problem is that while USM has a clear number one and not much after that, you could pretty much shake all of our starters in a bag and drop one out to start because they are all pretty much equally undependable at this point. Will be interesting to see who we do start against USM. Given the last 2 weeks you might could say that Evan Mitchell is our best starter and he wasn't even in the rotation most of the year.
 

hankp

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

57StratDawg said:
hankp said:
Starting McInnis in game 1 means they will be trying to beat Georgia Tech by committee on Saturday. I would not start McInnis against Mississippi State. And for that matter, if MSU beat me, I would not start McInnis in game 2 against Austin Peay. I would be fine risking going home without pitching my ace because I feel it is the best strategy you can implement to win this tournament setup.

You are not going to beat Ga Tech twice pitching your #4 and #5 guys. The important game is game two in the winners bracket, not game the first game of the tournament. If you win game one and lose game two, you are in the same exact boat had you lost game one and won game two. You play the same number of games.

If I were a fan of USM, I would want McInnis for Ga Tech. If we lost to MSU on Friday, I would not pitch McInnis against Austin Peay. With the #2 and #3 out, they have to gamble.
If they went 0-2 and never started McInnis, especially since they have pitchers out.

It really isn't even a question. He's going to throw against MSU. USM's only chance is to out pitch us in the first game, then out score GT in the 2nd game.
Hypothetically speaking:

So if they elected to take the gamble and not start McInnis in game 1 and they lost, you would start him against the 4 seed the next day? If you did that, you would be done. You would have to win 3 straight against MSU and Ga Tech to win the tourney. Would you rather attempt to beat Austin Peay by committee or Ga Tech? Pretty simple answer if you ask me. If you elect to go with one strategy, whether it be conservative or the gamble, you have to stick with it through the remainder of the tournament.

Finishing 2nd in this tournament is no better than finishing last. Having your best for the potential match-up with the best team is the best possible strategy in my opinion.
 

engie

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

QuaoarsKing said:
Winning game 1 and losing game 2 is no different than losing game 1 and winning game 2.<div>
</div><div>There's no real advantage unless you win BOTH of the first 2. Since neither MSU nor USM is in serious danger of losing to Austin Peay with our third starter (note -- I'm assuming AP is throwing their ace at GT Friday?), it makes sense for both MSU and USM to save the best pitcher to play Georgia Tech, who is almost certainly also saving their ace for game 2, because that gives the best chance of winning BOTH games.</div>


I think all of you are making too many assumptions, in the sport where you can assume nothing. Traditionally 2, maybe 3, #1s lose to #4s on Friday. Then, 3-4 #1s lose to the #2/3 on Saturday. Only 10, maybe 12 #1s advance to the Supers, and 5-6 of them lose at some point in the regionals. Baseball is a sport where you can overlook no one, and almost every #4 has one senior pitcher looking to ruin your season. You've got to play every single game to win....and unless your Florida, Vandy, Virginia, etc...with tremendously talented and deep pitching staffs, where #1-#3 are seperated by PICKS, not ROUNDS in the upcoming mlb draft, you throw your ace in game 1. (Games at home against crazy-bad opposition, see 2003, notwithstanding)

And to answer the question, yes I realize that you play the same number of games. From my experience, there was a TREMENDOUS difference between losing game 1 and 2...not in total innings or games, but in how you have to approach those innings with your back against the wall. Second round game in the winner's bracket, you can stick with a gameplan, and accept a loss against the (better team's) #2 without burning your entire pitching staff. Basically, you prolong going into "survival mode" for 9 innings... and thus have a significantly fresher pitching staff in most cases.
 
G

Goat 4 Eva

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

because there ain't no way in hell they are winning that regional without 2 weekend starters and the guy that won the Ferris.
 

Todd4State

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

Their pitching staff is actually more thin than us. Yes, they have a legit ace and we don't, but the rest of our starters and our bullpen are much better. Koelling is supposed to be back for a regional- he might not be 100%, though. Vollmuth has been playing hurt as well.

The only chance that they have is to beat us with McInnis, and then hope that their next pitcher has the game of his life.

And I'll go ahead and put this out there- McInnis wanted to go to MSU, but the coaches told him we had enough right handed pitchers. Sure could have used him this year. I don't know where that abundance of right hand pitchers went, though.
 

57stratdawg

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

hankp said:
57StratDawg said:
hankp said:
Starting McInnis in game 1 means they will be trying to beat Georgia Tech by committee on Saturday. I would not start McInnis against Mississippi State. And for that matter, if MSU beat me, I would not start McInnis in game 2 against Austin Peay. I would be fine risking going home without pitching my ace because I feel it is the best strategy you can implement to win this tournament setup.

You are not going to beat Ga Tech twice pitching your #4 and #5 guys. The important game is game two in the winners bracket, not game the first game of the tournament. If you win game one and lose game two, you are in the same exact boat had you lost game one and won game two. You play the same number of games.

If I were a fan of USM, I would want McInnis for Ga Tech. If we lost to MSU on Friday, I would not pitch McInnis against Austin Peay. With the #2 and #3 out, they have to gamble.
If they went 0-2 and never started McInnis, especially since they have pitchers out.

It really isn't even a question. He's going to throw against MSU. USM's only chance is to out pitch us in the first game, then out score GT in the 2nd game.
Hypothetically speaking:

<span style="font-weight: bold;">So if they elected to take the gamble and not start McInnis in game 1 and they lost,</span> you would start him against the 4 seed the next day? If you did that, you would be done. You would have to win 3 straight against MSU and Ga Tech to win the tourney. Would you rather attempt to beat Austin Peay by committee or Ga Tech? Pretty simple answer if you ask me. If you elect to go with one strategy, whether it be conservative or the gamble, you have to stick with it through the remainder of the tournament.

Finishing 2nd in this tournament is no better than finishing last. Having your best for the potential match-up with the best team is the best possible strategy in my opinion.
You can't coach game 2 before game 1 is played, much less coach it like you're going to lose game 1.

I understand you're reasoning, it's just not very good. haha.

The only chance USM has to win this regional is if they out pitch MSU (with McInnins) and then out score GT the next night. If they lose the first game, they are done. They don't have the pitching depth to make a run.
 

hankp

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Buy/Sell: If you're coaching USM & want to win the regional, McInnis starts USM's second game...

57StratDawg said:
hankp said:
57StratDawg said:
hankp said:
Starting McInnis in game 1 means they will be trying to beat Georgia Tech by committee on Saturday. I would not start McInnis against Mississippi State. And for that matter, if MSU beat me, I would not start McInnis in game 2 against Austin Peay. I would be fine risking going home without pitching my ace because I feel it is the best strategy you can implement to win this tournament setup.

You are not going to beat Ga Tech twice pitching your #4 and #5 guys. The important game is game two in the winners bracket, not game the first game of the tournament. If you win game one and lose game two, you are in the same exact boat had you lost game one and won game two. You play the same number of games.

If I were a fan of USM, I would want McInnis for Ga Tech. If we lost to MSU on Friday, I would not pitch McInnis against Austin Peay. With the #2 and #3 out, they have to gamble.
If they went 0-2 and never started McInnis, especially since they have pitchers out.

It really isn't even a question. He's going to throw against MSU. USM's only chance is to out pitch us in the first game, then out score GT in the 2nd game.
Hypothetically speaking:

<span style="font-weight: bold;">So if they elected to take the gamble and not start McInnis in game 1 and they lost,</span> you would start him against the 4 seed the next day? If you did that, you would be done. You would have to win 3 straight against MSU and Ga Tech to win the tourney. Would you rather attempt to beat Austin Peay by committee or Ga Tech? Pretty simple answer if you ask me. If you elect to go with one strategy, whether it be conservative or the gamble, you have to stick with it through the remainder of the tournament.

Finishing 2nd in this tournament is no better than finishing last. Having your best for the potential match-up with the best team is the best possible strategy in my opinion.
You can't coach game 2 before game 1 is played, much less coach it like you're going to lose game 1.

I understand you're reasoning, it's just not very good. haha.

The only chance USM has to win this regional is if they out pitch MSU (with McInnins) and then out score GT the next night. If they lose the first game, they are done. They don't have the pitching depth to make a run due to the suspensions. Do you honestly think that USM can beat
I actually agree with my reasoning, and I feel it would be the best strategy to use for a team in the very position that USM is in. If they beat us, they are playing at Georgia Tech, pitching by committee due to the suspensions, and most likely will be facing Georgia Tech's ace. In turn, they will lose that game. If you lose game two, you are in the exact same position as if you lost game one.

We will agree to disagree. I will never forget Polk throwing Maholm on the first day of the regional. And while we were the #1 seed, I feel USM is very much in that position. McInnis gives them a shot to beat Ga Tech, but the committee they will use probably will not.

Regardless, I am glad we will get to play this weekend.