Unless a bunch of random teams win their conference tournaments. A 23-win SEC team with an RPI in the 30's and a bunch of top 50 wins is not going to be left out.
However, lose to either Arkansas or Georgia, and they'll have to win the SECT.
Go 7-9 and 1-1 in the tournament, I'd give them a 10% of making.
7-9 and 2-1 in the tournament should give them 75% of making it, and 3-1 in the tournament should make them a lock.