BWI Analysis of recruiting classes 2017 - 2021

[blion72]

I thought that BWI did a good analysis of the last 5 classes. The number of players who played briefly (or never played) seemed remarkable. Not sure what would be normal for a CFB team today, but our losses seemed high to me, and some at key positions. Losses including several players who had to give up football. Maybe this is normal, or we are just unlucky.

2017 - class rated D+ = 21 players recruited with class rank 16. 12 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2018 - class rated B- = 23 players recruited with class rank 5. 11 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2019 - class rated C+ = 23 players recruited with class rank 10. 9 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2020 - class rated B- = 27 players recruited with class rank 14. 8 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2021 - class rated B+ = 16 players recruited with class rank 19. 1 player gone from team.

 

[Bvillebaron]

I thought that BWI did a good analysis of the last 5 classes. The number of players who played briefly (or never played) seemed remarkable. Not sure what would be normal for a CFB team today, but our losses seemed high to me, and some at key positions. Losses including several players who had to give up football. Maybe this is normal, or we are just unlucky.

2017 - class rated D+ = 21 players recruited with class rank 16. 12 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2018 - class rated B- = 23 players recruited with class rank 5. 11 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2019 - class rated C+ = 23 players recruited with class rank 10. 9 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2020 - class rated B- = 27 players recruited with class rank 14. 8 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2021 - class rated B+ = 16 players recruited with class rank 19. 1 player gone from team.

Interesting. Would like to see how this compares to other programs, especially in the Big Ten. With players being able to transfer and play immediately this is likely to be a trend.

 

[blion72]

Interesting. Would like to see how this compares to other programs, especially in the Big Ten. With players being able to transfer and play immediately this is likely to be a trend.

Interesting. Would like to see how this compares to other programs, especially in the Big Ten. With players being able to transfer and play immediately this is likely to be a trend.

I imagine all teams will lose the numbers to maintain the 85 limit. We were recruiting at 24 per year, so we would have to lose some to maintain the 85 roster. Losing 1/3 of our recruits seems high, given that most of the years there was not the instant eligible and the transfer portal to market yourself. That will only increase these numbers. Of course we have done nicely with some transfers in, but not huge numbers. I did not look at the average tenure of all players who departed for health, transfer or to NFL. Just looking at the list, I would guess the avg tenure was 2-3 yrs from arrival. Red shirting now is pretty much for injuries, and not for player development.

 

[WestSideLion]

Interesting. Would like to see how this compares to other programs, especially in the Big Ten. With players being able to transfer and play immediately this is likely to be a trend.

Exactly. On the surface, those figures seem high, but other big programs may be the same.

I’ll say that it *feels* like PSU had lost an inordinately high number of the supposedly elite recruits. That may be overrated players, but other big programs seem to get more of their top recruits to “hit.”

 

[PSUFTG]

Interesting. Would like to see how this compares to other programs, especially in the Big Ten. With players being able to transfer and play immediately this is likely to be a trend.

As of last year, PSU had lost more scholarship players via the portal than any other Big Ten team - 51 in the four years since the "portal" began (As a comparison, I believe OSU has lost 32 - most of them in the last year or so, for whatever reasons). Some of them may have been kids recruited, but who never panned out at Penn State - and were unlikely to ever do so. Others may have just been looking for a change of scenery, or any number of other reasons.
I don't know if PSU led the entire nation (My guess is they don't. Usually, large numbers of transfers accompany changes at the head coach level).

Most kids who transfer (from PSU or elsewhere) don't make huge impacts at other P5 programs.
Jameson Williams - who left OSU to become a star at Alabama, and Justin Fields - who left UGA to star at OSU - are more the exception than the rule.

Off the top of my head, among the kids who left Penn State:

Zech McPhearson was a mid-round NFL pick, playing for, IIRC, the Eagles
Juwan Johnson is, I believe, in the NFL
Tommy Stevens, and now Will Levis have gone on to start at QB for SEC teams.
Justin Shorter is a starting WR at Florida - and had a productive year there last year.
Zach Kuntz has been tearing it up at ODU.
Judge Culpepper has blossomed as a DT at Toledo, and Lance Dixon took over a starting role at WVU.
Most of the others are either still early in their career - or were guys who most likely would have been "program guys" (who provide quality depth and/or work their way into starting positions - but are unlikely to become "stars")

That said, the loss of so many recruits - even those who were never destined to become "stars" - has to be looked at as a key reason why PSU has lost as many as they have won over the last two years.

 

[J.E.B]

51 players in 4 years???? That's half if you are taking 25 guys a year.

 

[blion72]

51 players in 4 years???? That's half if you are taking 25 guys a year.

I believe that also includes the non-scholarship players who have transferred - i.e. last year we lost all the walk on OL that created instant depth problem. losing walk-ons at some spots like OL can be tough loss.

 

[PSUFTG]

I believe that also includes the non-scholarship players who have transferred - i.e. last year we lost all the walk on OL that created instant depth problem. losing walk-ons at some spots like OL can be tough loss.

That is scholarship players only (as I noted in the earlier post) FWIW: It also included only scholarship players who initially signed with PSU - and excluded any who were initially signed elsewhere, transferred to PSU, and then transferred out of PSU.

 

[Bvillebaron]

As of last year, PSU had lost more scholarship players via the portal than any other Big Ten team - 51 in the four years since the "portal" began (As a comparison, I believe OSU has lost 32 - most of them in the last year or so, for whatever reasons). Some of them may have been kids recruited, but who never panned out at Penn State - and were unlikely to ever do so. Others may have just been looking for a change of scenery, or any number of other reasons.
I don't know if PSU led the entire nation (My guess is they don't. Usually, large numbers of transfers accompany changes at the head coach level).

Most kids who transfer (from PSU or elsewhere) don't make huge impacts at other P5 programs.
Jameson Williams - who left OSU to become a star at Alabama, and Justin Fields - who left UGA to star at OSU - are more the exception than the rule.

Off the top of my head, among the kids who left Penn State:

Zech McPhearson was a mid-round NFL pick, playing for, IIRC, the Eagles
Juwan Johnson is, I believe, in the NFL
Tommy Stevens, and now Will Levis have gone on to start at QB for SEC teams.
Justin Shorter is a starting WR at Florida - and had a productive year there last year.
Zach Kuntz has been tearing it up at ODU.
Judge Culpepper has blossomed as a DT at Toledo, and Lance Dixon took over a starting role at WVU.
Most of the others are either still early in their career - or were guys who most likely would have been "program guys" (who provide quality depth and/or work their way into starting positions - but are unlikely to become "stars")

That said, the loss of so many recruits - even those who were never destined to become "stars" - has to be looked at as a key reason why PSU has lost as many as they have won over the last two years.

Thanks. I recall Brandon Short saying on a podcast that lack of depth really hurt the team the last 2 years. This would seem to confirm that.

 

[LB99]

As of last year, PSU had lost more scholarship players via the portal than any other Big Ten team - 51 in the four years since the "portal" began (As a comparison, I believe OSU has lost 32 - most of them in the last year or so, for whatever reasons). Some of them may have been kids recruited, but who never panned out at Penn State - and were unlikely to ever do so. Others may have just been looking for a change of scenery, or any number of other reasons.
I don't know if PSU led the entire nation (My guess is they don't. Usually, large numbers of transfers accompany changes at the head coach level).

Most kids who transfer (from PSU or elsewhere) don't make huge impacts at other P5 programs.
Jameson Williams - who left OSU to become a star at Alabama, and Justin Fields - who left UGA to star at OSU - are more the exception than the rule.

Off the top of my head, among the kids who left Penn State:

Zech McPhearson was a mid-round NFL pick, playing for, IIRC, the Eagles
Juwan Johnson is, I believe, in the NFL
Tommy Stevens, and now Will Levis have gone on to start at QB for SEC teams.
Justin Shorter is a starting WR at Florida - and had a productive year there last year.
Zach Kuntz has been tearing it up at ODU.
Judge Culpepper has blossomed as a DT at Toledo, and Lance Dixon took over a starting role at WVU.
Most of the others are either still early in their career - or were guys who most likely would have been "program guys" (who provide quality depth and/or work their way into starting positions - but are unlikely to become "stars")

That said, the loss of so many recruits - even those who were never destined to become "stars" - has to be looked at as a key reason why PSU has lost as many as they have won over the last two years.

Good analysis. Justin Shorter, while he has been “productive”, he has not lived up to the recruiting hype. Last year he had 41 receptions for 550 yards and 3 TDs. For his entire college career, at both PSU and UF, he has under 1,000 receiving.

 

[Midnighter]

Thanks. I recall Brandon Short saying on a podcast that lack of depth really hurt the team the last 2 years. This would seem to confirm that.

I'd add the 'overvaluation' of prospects on the whole (in the 247 Composite, there are 33 5* prospects, and 214 4* players, noting there could be more but the list ends at '247') and resulting class rankings that aren't indicative of the talent recruited. Add to it that most our recent 'elite' recruits tend to not work out (Simmons, Jenkins, Shorter, Jordan, Thorpe, Slade, Walker Asiedu, Dixon) - Parsons, YGM, Sanders and a few others are exceptions. But, all teams have these issues.

 

[91Joe95]

That is scholarship players only (as I noted in the earlier post) FWIW: It also included only scholarship players who initially signed with PSU - and excluded any who were initially signed elsewhere, transferred to PSU, and then transferred out of PSU.

That's a lot of turnover - self inflicted turnover.

 

[Bvillebaron]

That's a lot of turnover - self inflicted turnover.

And how is that self-inflicted turnover?

 

[Paruffus]

I thought that BWI did a good analysis of the last 5 classes. The number of players who played briefly (or never played) seemed remarkable. Not sure what would be normal for a CFB team today, but our losses seemed high to me, and some at key positions. Losses including several players who had to give up football. Maybe this is normal, or we are just unlucky.

2017 - class rated D+ = 21 players recruited with class rank 16. 12 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2018 - class rated B- = 23 players recruited with class rank 5. 11 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2019 - class rated C+ = 23 players recruited with class rank 10. 9 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2020 - class rated B- = 27 players recruited with class rank 14. 8 players left the team either due to health or transferred.

2021 - class rated B+ = 16 players recruited with class rank 19. 1 player gone from team.

Whatever the reasons may be for this relatively dismal result it's obvious that we need to find ways to improve our due diligence. Note: This appears to have been a continuum which if so rules out the excuse of 'bad luck'.

 

[PSUwolf]

I read many of the other boards and all of the top programs - Alabama, Georgia, OSU etc..... - have big turnovers every year - especially Alabama. Saban is constantly bringing in 27 to 30 new people every year. The BIG's OSU is not quite as bad but just a step behind. The reason - the 4 and 5 star players that have been in the program over 3 years (minus OL) probably know they're destined to ride the bench especially when those schools are bringing in HS blue chippers every year right behind them.

I really think people are over thinking the transfer out stuff - at PSU - as it might be that many are seeing the hand writing on the wall. I still say that the biggest gut punch to the program were the 2 back-to- back one-point losses to OSU