BWI Sport Betting Thread

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
Misleading Box Scores
Other notes
PSU outgained Minny 361-281 yds, 5.9-4.7 ypp and was +2 in TO (should have won by more)
Purdue outgained Michigan State
UAB is a team that is absolutely all over the place this season
Notre Dame outgained Army 9.8 ypp to 3.5 ypp


ScoreYardsYPPTurnovers
Ole Miss
17​
464​
6​
-2​
Florida
24​
344​
5.5​
UCF
21​
348​
6.3​
-1​
WVU
31​
318​
4.2​
Wisconsin
25​
407​
7.4​
-1​
Nebraska
44​
473​
6.3​
(score a bit inflated)
Texas Tech565435.9
Ok St485648.4-1
UL-Monroe213936.6-2
Ark State283765.5
USC193465.3
UCLA133766.8
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
Since it's the first time I'm playing one of our games this season, figured I'd share...

Fordham/Penn St over 149.5 (some 149 out there too)

I'll be shocked if there isn't some market agreement to push this one higher.
Got back to my desk just in time to see this one go over 149 with a little over a minute to go.
Last I checked, the line had moved to 151, which is where it landed. Do you know where it finished? Hope nobody took a late 151.5.
 

CDLionFL

Well-known member
Oct 25, 2021
1,453
2,156
113
Since it's the first time I'm playing one of our games this season, figured I'd share...

Fordham/Penn St over 149.5 (some 149 out there too)

I'll be shocked if there isn't some market agreement to push this one higher.
PSU's team total has cleared in every game this season. Hard Rock has it at 83 1/2 right now. Game total now at 150.
Cash both tickets!!!

If you waited and it got to 153, you were out of luck on the game total.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
The dead cat bounce angle (betting a team a week after firing a coach) is 6-3 ATS on the season. I seem to recall @LionJim enjoying this one.

This week's DCB is is not clear cut. Mack Brown was fired, but will still coach this week. I can't call this a full DCB.
I'm hoping not, as I bet NC State on the open at +4.
 

LionJim

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
10,183
14,070
113
The dead cat bounce angle (betting a team a week after firing a coach) is 6-3 ATS on the season. I seem to recall @LionJim enjoying this one.

This week's DCB is is not clear cut. Mack Brown was fired, but will still coach this week. I can't call this a full DCB.
I'm hoping not, as I bet NC State on the open at +4.
Mack Brown was fired? Wow. I hope UNC gave him the option to retire.
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
Mack Brown was fired? Wow. I hope UNC gave him the option to retire.
I didn't read much, but I saw speculation that they did and he told them to shove it. Take with a grain of salt, but seems pretty plausible from both sides.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LionJim

1995PSUGrad

Well-known member
Oct 30, 2021
441
636
93
I didn't read much, but I saw speculation that they did and he told them to shove it. Take with a grain of salt, but seems pretty plausible from both sides.
I think they wanted him to go and then he announced he was planning to return so they fired him. However, he is still coaching this weekend, which to me is odd. I think he lost the team a while back so I don't think they will have anything to play for.
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
I think they wanted him to go and then he announced he was planning to return so they fired him. However, he is still coaching this weekend, which to me is odd. I think he lost the team a while back so I don't think they will have anything to play for.
I hope you're correct for my NC State bet. NC St needs a win for bowl eligibility and UNC has already qualified for a bowl that it maybe doesn't care about. I took a piece of the ML too.
 

1995PSUGrad

Well-known member
Oct 30, 2021
441
636
93
I hope you're correct for my NC State bet. NC St needs a win for bowl eligibility and UNC has already qualified for a bowl that it maybe doesn't care about. I took a piece of the ML too.
I am curious that you bet so early. Is it that you just like the line that got and wanted to take it before it changed? Do you worry that a player gets hurt in practice or enters the portal or opts or something else that could have a big impact on the game after you have made the bet?
 

Erial_Lion

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2021
2,027
2,501
113
I am curious that you bet so early. Is it that you just like the line that got and wanted to take it before it changed? Do you worry that a player gets hurt in practice or enters the portal or opts or something else that could have a big impact on the game after you have made the bet?
Some context around it...anyone that's successful at it will most likely bet as early as possible, when the limits are high enough that it's ready for them to jump in. In 99% of cases, the goal of making the bet should be to beat the closing line (especially in a large market like college football). If you can't beat the closing line, then you're almost certainly not going to win. In fact, sportsbooks pay closer attention to that than your actual results when it comes to profiling you and cutting your limits (ie, you can win $100k while not beating the close, and they won't care...but beat the close consistently over 10/25/100 plays, and they will take it upon themselves to make life very difficult for you to play with them).
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
I am curious that you bet so early. Is it that you just like the line that got and wanted to take it before it changed? Do you worry that a player gets hurt in practice or enters the portal or opts or something else that could have a big impact on the game after you have made the bet?
Good question and to piggyback off Erial's response...the sharpest lines are the closing lines, after the market has picked at them all week. IMO, a huge part of sports betting is getting the best line. that extra 0.5 to 2 points you get can make the difference between a winning and losing bettor. A bettor that waits until game day to make all bets is going to struggle to win long term.

I keep power ratings for every team and adjust them after every game. From this, I come up with spreads for every single game and then compare them to lines when they open on Sunday. If there is a sizable difference between mine and the actual line (or a small difference that is around a key number of 3, 7, etc) that may trigger a bet. I'm more apt to bet favorites early and wait on dogs since the public will tend to bet the favorites more. This may sound silly, but I'm just as happy, if not more, when a line moves in my favor than if I actually win the bet. I've graded every one of "my lines" for years against the open and close. My theoretical win percentage on all games is about 51% to 51.5% on the open and goes to about 50% at close, so there is concrete evidence.

I don't worry about injuries/portal (or coaches suddenly getting fired but coaching the last game!). That can just as easily happen to the other team and work in my favor. Bowl games are different these days. I will wait on a lot of those games to see who opts out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: wbcbus

Erial_Lion

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2021
2,027
2,501
113
Here is one that I'll share for tonight that is still available...

Rutgers/Alabama under 162.5

The total would be a pretty good number under "normal" circumstances (I might have it 1-1.5 points lower), but here is a spot where both teams not only played last night, but both teams went to OT. Plus, Rutgers got into a track meet with Kennesaw St on Sunday and knows that they need to control the tempo to have a shot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green

CDLionFL

Well-known member
Oct 25, 2021
1,453
2,156
113
Hoops play from me:

UNDER in Towson-Kennesaw. Number at DK is 149 1/2. I’m a Towson alum so I watch them closer than most. Two of our better scorers are likely out and with them out of the lineup in the last 2 games, our games have turned into rock fights. With us also a 3-pt favorite, there is no shot we get to the expected 76-77 point total (hint - under on team total too).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
I’m sure you’ll like this week @Grant Green , as they are focusing on more under the radar games…


This was the best pod of the season. Lots of games and definitely under the radar. Ed provides some great info. Glad to be on the same side of a few plays he made. He may have talked me into the iowa over, which I regret not betting at all this season.
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
Sam Houston beat liberty. Western Kentucky gets into the ccg with a win over Jax st. And they would play....Jax st who is already locked in. So wky has everything to play for and Jax has nothing to play for.

Wky +1 available but moving.
 

Erial_Lion

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2021
2,027
2,501
113
Sam Houston beat liberty. Western Kentucky gets into the ccg with a win over Jax st. And they would play....Jax st who is already locked in. So wky has everything to play for and Jax has nothing to play for.

Wky +1 available but moving.
Yea, I was watching it too waiting to pounce after what Eddie had to say about it.
 

CDLionFL

Well-known member
Oct 25, 2021
1,453
2,156
113
Hoops play from me:

UNDER in Towson-Kennesaw. Number at DK is 149 1/2. I’m a Towson alum so I watch them closer than most. Two of our better scorers are likely out and with them out of the lineup in the last 2 games, our games have turned into rock fights. With us also a 3-pt favorite, there is no shot we get to the expected 76-77 point total (hint - under on team total too).
Even with overtime, easy cash.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green

Erial_Lion

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2021
2,027
2,501
113
One for tonight that I’ll share…

Maryland Eastern Shore +42 UConn (some 42.5 out there too)

Think that it’s me against the world on this one (or at least me against anyone that’s played it so far).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green

Erial_Lion

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2021
2,027
2,501
113
I guess I’ll share the other two I played that are still available too…

Creighton -6.5 (a few 6’s out there) Notre Dame
Navy/Elon over 144.5
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grant Green

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
My biggest bet regret today.
"Cignetti is going to take out his frustration and go for style points vs purdue".

They won 66-0. Did I bet it? No.
 

LionJim

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
10,183
14,070
113
SVP used to post on the old Tom Mc board.
Yeah, I was watching Sports Center one morning and they said something that was a historical falsehood. I laughingly called them out on it and added, guessing wrongly, “I think it was SVP.” SVP: “Wasn’t me. I wasn’t in Bristol this morning.” SVP went to my kids high school, Richie Anderson’s too.
 

Grant Green

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2021
2,332
3,222
113
Misleading Box Scores

Notes:
  • Freaking Iowa with a typical disgusting Iowa win. Blech!
  • Georgia really got handled and was very fortunate
  • Iowa State looking overrated as usual
  • PURDUE HAD 67 yards of offense on 1.5 ypp. I don't think I've ever seen such a poor offensive performance. IU had 582 yds at 7.8ypp.
  • Arizona State gained 643 yds at 9.9 ypp!!
  • FAU gained 665 yds at 9.8 ypp
ScoreYardsYPPTurnover
Nebraska103344.4-2
Iowa131644
GT425636.7
UGA444055.9
Utah281963.8
UCF143794.5-3
Marshall352674.3
JMU333825.3-1
App St204656.3
GA South293576
K St213646-2
ISU293244.1
UTEP422985.3
NMSU355435.1-2
ND494367.1
USC355577.2
 

Nittering Nabob

Active member
Sep 17, 2024
485
377
63
Misleading Box Scores

Notes:
  • Freaking Iowa with a typical disgusting Iowa win. Blech!
  • Georgia really got handled and was very fortunate
  • Iowa State looking overrated as usual
  • PURDUE HAD 67 yards of offense on 1.5 ypp. I don't think I've ever seen such a poor offensive performance. IU had 582 yds at 7.8ypp.
  • Arizona State gained 643 yds at 9.9 ypp!!
  • FAU gained 665 yds at 9.8 ypp
ScoreYardsYPPTurnover
Nebraska103344.4-2
Iowa131644
GT425636.7
UGA444055.9
Utah281963.8
UCF143794.5-3
Marshall352674.3
JMU333825.3-1
App St204656.3
GA South293576
K St213646-2
ISU293244.1
UTEP422985.3
NMSU355435.1-2
ND494367.1
USC355577.2
Iowa has a very good punter and kept Nebraska in long-drive situations. Iowa also has a good place kicker. Typical Ferentz ball.
 
Get unlimited access today.

Pick the right plan for you.

Already a member? Login