BWI Sport Betting Thread
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
That's highly unlikely. Have you considered engaging him in a wager to the contrary?
He won $45k in a Calcutta last year and then made over $100k on the Panther's playoff run. I defer to him when it comes to gambling. I make $25-$100 bets and parlays, and somewhat profit from it. All the stress I need.
Hope you ignored the UM injuries and bet it. So hard to handicap backup players. Looks like UM has some good ones. That 1st quarter rain storm helped a lot. Bama may want to rethink cleat selection next time - that was brutal.
I did bet it. $22 bet paid $444. Then I won almost that much again on PSU. Great day for me! Not so great for the vaunted SEC though.
I’m on us at -4.5 tonight against Northwestern. I’m sure the crowd won’t be great, but I’ve got NW lower than most.
Feel like I'm stealing money on OSU these last two weeks. I'll be on them against Texas (already moved from -4.5 to -6, but I'm just going -225 ML and likely will parlay it with another -200+ I find). I've been adding to Ohio State NC bets every time the odds improved. Their loss to Michigan will have made me a lot if they win it.
Where the hell you been all season? Bout time.
Wish I would have taken advantage of that huge over reaction to the OSU loss to UM.
Since the topic of cashing out of bets came up earlier in the season, I thought I would post this discussion from pro bettor Bill Krackomberger (great dude). Listen at 11:00. The following quote summarizes his thoughts "whatever the cash out is, you can guarantee they're (books) taking double digits on you...it's a robbery".
Sidenote on this segment - don't tease college football games (unless it's 2023 Iowa with a point total of 28 and it meets Wong criteria).
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-vsin-best-bets-30203597/
Sidenote on this segment - don't tease college football games (unless it's 2023 Iowa with a point total of 28 and it meets Wong criteria).
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-vsin-best-bets-30203597/
I was tempted w/ a $355 cashout midway 4th quarter in the ILL game. I had my finger over the button knowing the house is 30 seconds ahead of me. I was thinking a scoop/score or something is going to happen. Ended up saying eff it. Let it go. I trust Bart Bulimia.
On HR, cashouts really help sometimes. You can lay 10.5 and a day leader (possibly, if you wait a bit) get a 100% cashout to re-bet at 10.
A "teaser" is a bet where the line is moved 6 points (typically, but can vary). Example, the UGA +1 line would go to +7. The catch is that you have to pair at least 2 bets together and the payout varies from -120 to -130 (you pay 120/130 to win 100).
In the NFL these can be valuable since points are at a premium and especially if the point total is low (not a lot of points expected so points are more valuable).
In college, there is a lot more volatility, so points are not worth as much. Therefore, moving the line by 6 points doesn't have nearly as much value and the payout is negative EV (expected value).
The "Wong" teaser is one in which you move a line through the key numbers of 3,4,6,7. That would be teasing a dog from, say, +2 to +8 or a fav (home fav only) from say, -8 to -2. It has been proven to be the most profitable.
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Listen to the podcast if you aren't convinced. The book is ALWAYS getting the best of it when you cash out. I cannot imagine any book letting you cash out for full bet when the line has moved against you. If the HR really did that, it was either a bad mistake or they have really bad managers.
LionJim - you can also just move the line of a single game. Up or down, and your odds increase or decrease depending. Usually 3 or 4 points either way. Like Grant said 3, 4, 6, 7 are the only reasons to really do this unless you think the payout on the favorite is too low and you want to raise it b/c you smell blowout, so you give 4 instead of 2.5 as an example.
I've only ever seen it with a half a point, and I caught it very early - but more than once or twice. I get your point, but 100% is just that w/ HR.
BTW, I place my bets from a desktop w/ a keyboard. Betting 22, 55, 66 is just easier. Plus w/ live bets, the screens change quickly. Easy way to get your bet in quicker.
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Wait, you bet it at -4 -105, the line moved to -3.5 and they let you cash out of -4 for full bet amount?
They are either doing a really bad job or they are using this for promo purposes and it won't last forever.
Here's an interesting bet to consider. Parlay Steelers ML vs Cincy and Las Vegas ML vs LAC.
The Steelers should still have something to play for - knocking out a division rival and getting Houston in the first round instead of Baltimore. Steeler fans can correct me, but Tomlin seems like the type of coach to play everyone especially considering their recent poor form.
If the Steelers win, LAC has absolutely nothing to play for. Therefore, this parlay is correlated.
The Steelers should still have something to play for - knocking out a division rival and getting Houston in the first round instead of Baltimore. Steeler fans can correct me, but Tomlin seems like the type of coach to play everyone especially considering their recent poor form.
If the Steelers win, LAC has absolutely nothing to play for. Therefore, this parlay is correlated.
Just imagine all the losers I’ve saved you from though!
I had Ohio State preseason at +450, continued adding it to parlays even when it dropped to +250 (I have parlays with Celtics nba title and Ravens AFC North when they dropped after the Steelers start). Then after Michigan I got them at +475. Finally added some more at +340 before Oregon. I don’t usually make futures bets when the odds are under +400, but DK gives out so many free bets, I use them on those types.
Good move if it's bonus bets and not straight cash. Big plus money bets definitely the way to go for those. Would you hedge off if PSU were to play them in the final? Or just know that you are a winner either way?
I have a +2200 ticket for PSU and a +750 for ND already. I am exposed on Texas, but I’m not going to hedge that at all…
Check your books to see if anyone will let you parlay the Steelers moneyline with the Raiders moneyline. Huge correlation there if Pittsburgh wins...most books will probably prevent this parlay due to that fact, but others (and any locals) are allowing it.
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Hard Rock is allowing it.
Here's a list of the number of incentives up for grabs this weekend. Could make for some fun prop parlays:
lol, missed your post. Definitely a +EV spot, hence why some are blocking it
The Chargers will probably still win the majority of the time, but the ML parlay payout makes it a positive EV bet. You don't need the Raiders to win the majority of the time to make it worth it.
That assumes the lines are accurate.
What I'm noticing is a poop-ton of opportunity. Almost enough to make one get out of the asset management business and into gambling ... unfortunately, the bookies would cut you off.
That's the point of the bet. If the Steelers win, the current chargers line (which assumes starters playing the whole game) will now be off since the chargers will be less likely to play starters the whole game. I would expect the line to drop. If harbaugh ends up playing them the whole game, oh well, it was still worth the risk (and he's an idiot if he does).
What I'm saying is that EV only matters if its component parts are accurate. If someone calcs an EV of a coin flip based on a 40% prob of heads and 60% prob of tails ... and someone offers them a payout based on 45% prob of heads, they think they're getting EV+. But they obviously aren't.
Right but if they are paying you out based on a 35% probability of heads then it is worth it and i think that is the scenario here. Let's assume that both erial and I are wrong. Why do you think fanduel and DK are not accepting this bet?
The NFL side market is obviously way more efficient than you're giving it credit for...there is a reason that Pinnacle will take a mid-five figure bet in this market, even when offering a 16 cent line.
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