Despite some drama, everything was mostly chalk for the 8 teams in the CFP hunt entering the day. Its actually a pretty clear picture. Ohio State now looks to be the first team that’s out. 7 teams left in the hunt:
1) SECCG winner is now fully guaranteed a slot no matter what (Bama or UGA). UGA would be the guaranteed #1 seed if they win. Bama could possibly be the #1 with a win, but looks more likely they’d be in the #2/#3 game if chalk holds elsewhere.
2) PAC 12 CG winner is also fully guaranteed a slot (UW or Oregon). This will be the first CFP representative from the PAC 12 in 7 years. They seem to be destined to be in the 2/3 game, barring the very specific circumstances of UGA losing to Bama, UW beating Oregon, AND Michigan losing to Iowa.
2 of those 4 are in no matter what. That leaves 5 teams battling for the final 2 slots. These are listed below in order of likelihood:
3) Michigan - punches their ticket with a win over Iowa, in which they will be a heavy favorite. BUT, if they lose, they are likely out. #1 seed if they win and UGA loses. Otherwise, they’ll be in the 2/3 game against the Pac 12 rep in what will be the final Rose Bowl circle-jerk of all time between those 2 leagues.
4) FSU - With OSU dropping out, they will move up to #4 in the final CFP rankings release prior to the selection show. They beat Louisville, and they are in. If not, they are very likely out….but not 100% out (see below).
5) Texas - probably the biggest loser in today’s proceedings. FSU won to stay ahead of them, they lost a chance at getting to avenge the OU loss and get a 2nd quality win on their resume when Ok State came back to beat BYU, and to top it all off their 2nd best win - KSU - took one on the chin at home against Iowa State and will probably be no longer ranked in the CFP Top 25. They must win the Big 12 title just to stay alive, but it still may not be enough.
6) UGA (if they lose to Bama) - A 12-1 UGA has an argument against a 12-1 Texas from a resume standpoint, and has an even better argument over a 12-1 Michigan. Throw out the conference champ designation and UGA’s would be way better than Texas. But that conference title means a lot to the committee. For now I’d put UGA here. This is the lowest they can fall.
7) Washington (if they lose to Oregon) - similar to UGA above. Also has possible argument over Texas and a 1-loss Michigan based on the PAC 12 strength vs. the Big 12 / Big 10.
Oregon and Bama would join Ohio State as being out with losses in their championship games.
If anarchy were to ensue, and UGA / Washington both won, FSU lost, and Texas lost, there’s a possible path remaining for Ohio State, but even then you’d have to put them in over a 1-loss FSU that actually made their conference title game, and has a better resume (Ohio State has absolutely no wins better than the one over #18 ND). So I see them as being out under any scenario.
1) SECCG winner is now fully guaranteed a slot no matter what (Bama or UGA). UGA would be the guaranteed #1 seed if they win. Bama could possibly be the #1 with a win, but looks more likely they’d be in the #2/#3 game if chalk holds elsewhere.
2) PAC 12 CG winner is also fully guaranteed a slot (UW or Oregon). This will be the first CFP representative from the PAC 12 in 7 years. They seem to be destined to be in the 2/3 game, barring the very specific circumstances of UGA losing to Bama, UW beating Oregon, AND Michigan losing to Iowa.
2 of those 4 are in no matter what. That leaves 5 teams battling for the final 2 slots. These are listed below in order of likelihood:
3) Michigan - punches their ticket with a win over Iowa, in which they will be a heavy favorite. BUT, if they lose, they are likely out. #1 seed if they win and UGA loses. Otherwise, they’ll be in the 2/3 game against the Pac 12 rep in what will be the final Rose Bowl circle-jerk of all time between those 2 leagues.
4) FSU - With OSU dropping out, they will move up to #4 in the final CFP rankings release prior to the selection show. They beat Louisville, and they are in. If not, they are very likely out….but not 100% out (see below).
5) Texas - probably the biggest loser in today’s proceedings. FSU won to stay ahead of them, they lost a chance at getting to avenge the OU loss and get a 2nd quality win on their resume when Ok State came back to beat BYU, and to top it all off their 2nd best win - KSU - took one on the chin at home against Iowa State and will probably be no longer ranked in the CFP Top 25. They must win the Big 12 title just to stay alive, but it still may not be enough.
6) UGA (if they lose to Bama) - A 12-1 UGA has an argument against a 12-1 Texas from a resume standpoint, and has an even better argument over a 12-1 Michigan. Throw out the conference champ designation and UGA’s would be way better than Texas. But that conference title means a lot to the committee. For now I’d put UGA here. This is the lowest they can fall.
7) Washington (if they lose to Oregon) - similar to UGA above. Also has possible argument over Texas and a 1-loss Michigan based on the PAC 12 strength vs. the Big 12 / Big 10.
Oregon and Bama would join Ohio State as being out with losses in their championship games.
If anarchy were to ensue, and UGA / Washington both won, FSU lost, and Texas lost, there’s a possible path remaining for Ohio State, but even then you’d have to put them in over a 1-loss FSU that actually made their conference title game, and has a better resume (Ohio State has absolutely no wins better than the one over #18 ND). So I see them as being out under any scenario.
