Just beat Florida. Do that and we are in and playing Bama on Friday for a chance to move up a seed line. Max for us is probably 9 I would guess. But a loss to the Gators is possible, and while it would make the next several days hard to watch, there are other results around the country that could help us out should we need it.
Remember tonight there are two tournament finals that we want to see specific results in. We want Oral Roberts to win the Summit League and Charleston to win the CAA. Those two teams have at large cases should they happen to lose their conference tournaments.
Start in the Big 10
Ohio State is talented but had a terrible season. They could do everyone a favor and end the Wisconsin talk tomorrow night. Even if the Badgers win, they probably still need to beat Iowa to feel good about getting in, and even that might not be enough. If Wisconsin wins three games, they will find their way in, so let's get rid of them sooner rather than later. Either Ohio State or Iowa needs to handle them.
Rutgers-Michigan feels like a First Four game already. I'm not sure how the loser could stake a claim to a bid. Rutgers MIGHT be able survive a loss but it would seem certain to be headed for Dayton at that point. Michigan probably still needs to beat Purdue to get in, so my very specific desire is for Michigan to beat Rutgers, then lose to Purdue. Best case for both of them would be Dayton at that point. I guess if we do lose to Florida then I would be for Rutgers to eliminate Michigan, but that game starts an hour before we tip off so I don't have that luxury.
Penn State has some momentum after back to back buzzer beating wins. A loss to Illinois keeps them in the neighborhood of the Last Four In (Dayton)/First Four Out (NIT). Beating Illinois probably locks up a bid for them.
It's not every year that the Mountain West is a key player in the buzz leading up to Selection Sunday, but here we are.
San Diego State is a lock. Boise State seems likely. Utah State and Nevada are the bubble teams. The sooner those two lose, the better. We just can't have New Mexico sliding in from the 6 spot to win the tournament, something they are capable of. (I don't think San Jose can do it.) Basically we are pulling against Nevada and Utah State on Thursday and against New Mexico on Friday. I just don't want to see New Mexico playing Saturday with a bid on the line. If that means Utah State beats them then I'll live with that. I guess the most ideal would be for New Mexico to beat Utah State and then lose to Boise State.
The PAC 12 question is are they a two-bid, three-bid, or four-bid league?
If Arizona State beats Oregon State, then the matchup with USC is sort of like Michigan and Rutgers, although USC seems to have a better case than Rutgers. Arizona State needs at least two wins and maybe three to get back in the discussion. I wanted Hurley to make it in, but he had his chances and didn't make it happen. Got to pull for USC, especially if we lose to Florida. The PAC 12 might like for Arizona State to beat USC and Arizona, because that's their only hope at four teams getting in (other than a bid thief of course).
The ACC is as much of a crapshoot as any of them.
Where to start? North Carolina is the biggest name. They likely need to win tomorrow against BC/Louisville, then against UVA (who they just beat a couple of weeks ago), and then against Clemson/NC State. We all know we don't want to be on the board against UNC on Selection Sunday. We need them to lose early and get it over with.
NC State is PROBABLY safe, but they can't screw around and lose their first one and feel good. I'd rather see the Pack keep winning so they can take care of Clemson (who has almost no case) and then handle business against UNC if it comes to that. My rooting order in the bottom half is all the double digit seeds, then Virginia, then NC State, then Clemson, then UNC.
In the top half, Pitt is sweating like we are. They feel like they need a win. Ga Tech already won their game with FSU, so that's who they play tomorrow. I like Jeff Capel too, but I don't want Pitt in over us. If they beat Tech, Duke needs to take them out.
The Big 12 is stacked.
Teams 1-6 are locks, and WVU probably is as well. The bubble team is Oklahoma State. Losing to Oklahoma tomorrow would all but end their hopes. Let's pull for the Sooners to take them out. If not, they have a shot to play their way in against Texas.
I don't care who wins the SEC as long as it isn't Vandy.
Seeds 1-5 plus Auburn and Arkansas seemed locked in to bids. The Vandy run needs to end sooner rather than later. I would think neither UGA nor LSU would provide much resistance, but LSU just beat Vandy last week. If Vandy does win that one, we badly need Kentucky to take them out.
This is so much more fun than paying attention to our baseball team.
Remember tonight there are two tournament finals that we want to see specific results in. We want Oral Roberts to win the Summit League and Charleston to win the CAA. Those two teams have at large cases should they happen to lose their conference tournaments.
Start in the Big 10
Ohio State is talented but had a terrible season. They could do everyone a favor and end the Wisconsin talk tomorrow night. Even if the Badgers win, they probably still need to beat Iowa to feel good about getting in, and even that might not be enough. If Wisconsin wins three games, they will find their way in, so let's get rid of them sooner rather than later. Either Ohio State or Iowa needs to handle them.
Rutgers-Michigan feels like a First Four game already. I'm not sure how the loser could stake a claim to a bid. Rutgers MIGHT be able survive a loss but it would seem certain to be headed for Dayton at that point. Michigan probably still needs to beat Purdue to get in, so my very specific desire is for Michigan to beat Rutgers, then lose to Purdue. Best case for both of them would be Dayton at that point. I guess if we do lose to Florida then I would be for Rutgers to eliminate Michigan, but that game starts an hour before we tip off so I don't have that luxury.
Penn State has some momentum after back to back buzzer beating wins. A loss to Illinois keeps them in the neighborhood of the Last Four In (Dayton)/First Four Out (NIT). Beating Illinois probably locks up a bid for them.
It's not every year that the Mountain West is a key player in the buzz leading up to Selection Sunday, but here we are.
San Diego State is a lock. Boise State seems likely. Utah State and Nevada are the bubble teams. The sooner those two lose, the better. We just can't have New Mexico sliding in from the 6 spot to win the tournament, something they are capable of. (I don't think San Jose can do it.) Basically we are pulling against Nevada and Utah State on Thursday and against New Mexico on Friday. I just don't want to see New Mexico playing Saturday with a bid on the line. If that means Utah State beats them then I'll live with that. I guess the most ideal would be for New Mexico to beat Utah State and then lose to Boise State.
The PAC 12 question is are they a two-bid, three-bid, or four-bid league?
If Arizona State beats Oregon State, then the matchup with USC is sort of like Michigan and Rutgers, although USC seems to have a better case than Rutgers. Arizona State needs at least two wins and maybe three to get back in the discussion. I wanted Hurley to make it in, but he had his chances and didn't make it happen. Got to pull for USC, especially if we lose to Florida. The PAC 12 might like for Arizona State to beat USC and Arizona, because that's their only hope at four teams getting in (other than a bid thief of course).
The ACC is as much of a crapshoot as any of them.
Where to start? North Carolina is the biggest name. They likely need to win tomorrow against BC/Louisville, then against UVA (who they just beat a couple of weeks ago), and then against Clemson/NC State. We all know we don't want to be on the board against UNC on Selection Sunday. We need them to lose early and get it over with.
NC State is PROBABLY safe, but they can't screw around and lose their first one and feel good. I'd rather see the Pack keep winning so they can take care of Clemson (who has almost no case) and then handle business against UNC if it comes to that. My rooting order in the bottom half is all the double digit seeds, then Virginia, then NC State, then Clemson, then UNC.
In the top half, Pitt is sweating like we are. They feel like they need a win. Ga Tech already won their game with FSU, so that's who they play tomorrow. I like Jeff Capel too, but I don't want Pitt in over us. If they beat Tech, Duke needs to take them out.
The Big 12 is stacked.
Teams 1-6 are locks, and WVU probably is as well. The bubble team is Oklahoma State. Losing to Oklahoma tomorrow would all but end their hopes. Let's pull for the Sooners to take them out. If not, they have a shot to play their way in against Texas.
I don't care who wins the SEC as long as it isn't Vandy.
Seeds 1-5 plus Auburn and Arkansas seemed locked in to bids. The Vandy run needs to end sooner rather than later. I would think neither UGA nor LSU would provide much resistance, but LSU just beat Vandy last week. If Vandy does win that one, we badly need Kentucky to take them out.
This is so much more fun than paying attention to our baseball team.
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