Consistency

[Deleted11512]

There have varying opinions on how long you should give a coach. Many here wanted to fire Beamer after this year. Some say if he doesn't improve in 24 he should be fired. The antithesis of that is Beamer's dad. Many point to him as a reason we should give him longer. But I think Harbaugh is a more realistic view. If you look back at Harbaugh's time at Mich, it hasn't always been pretty. Yes, he had 3 10 win seasons before the CFP appearances. But given their history and expectations, he had been pretty pedestrian. The Rose bowl this year was the first bowl game he'd won since the 2015 Citrus bowl. He didn't win the B10 until his 7th year. Prior to that, he'd only won his division once. Here is where he's finished in his division: 3, 3, 4, T-1, 3, 5, T-1, 1, 1.

He didn't get here by beating everyone in recruiting. Here are the recruiting rankings: 37, 8, 5, 22, 8, 10, 13, 12, 20, 20 (current). Interesting that his big success has come when his recruiting fell off. The winningest program in the history of the NCAA gave their guy time while he wasn't necessarily performing to their standards.

I'm not saying the comparison is apples to apples. But just thought it was interesting that Mich sticking with their guy, through a lot, finally paid off after 8 years.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Oh my word, you have to be kidding me, I was just about to start a thread titled "Patience is a Virtue" and make largely the same point. Weird.

Through his first 6 seasons he was 0-6 against OSU, which is THE barometer coaches are judged by. He had 1 bowl win. As you said, by Michigan standards, he was pretty pedestrian. I don't know that fans were calling for his job, but I think the 0-6 vs OSU had fans antsy. The administration waited and it paid off in the biggest way possible.

You can certainly make some correlations to Beamer, and, of course, it's much harder to win here than Michigan. I've proposed just giving Beamer a decade. Just because it doesn't happen in the first 4, 5 or 6 years doesn't mean it won't happen. Harbaugh "slumped" to 8-5 his third year. Went 2-4 in the covid year.

 

[Deleted11512]

Oh my word, you have to be kidding me, I was just about to start a thread titled "Patience is a Virtue" and make largely the same point. Weird.

Through his first 6 seasons he was 0-6 against OSU, which is THE barometer coaches are judged by. He had 1 bowl win. As you said, by Michigan standards, he was pretty pedestrian. I don't know that fans were calling for his job, but I think the 0-6 vs OSU had fans antsy. The administration waited and it paid off in the biggest way possible.

Fans were DEFINITELY calling for his job. They were not happy at all! There was even some rumors of internal strife within the university b/c some leadership wanted him gone, while others supported him.

 

[Prestonyte]

Made the same case with Beamer's dad's record. Frank's head was on the platter, but the AD had faith, did not fire him and was rewarded with a legend and HOF coach. Everyone responded with ''times have changed'' or ''it's a new era of CFB''. So, the Harbaugh references above are current and again demonstrates patience can be rewarded.
Do we have the patience is the question?

 

[18IsTheMan]

Made the same case with Beamer's dad's record. Frank's head was on the platter, but the AD had faith, did not fire him and was rewarded with a legend and HOF coach. Everyone responded with ''times have changed'' or ''it's a new era of CFB''. So, the Harbaugh references above are current and again demonstrates patience can be rewarded.
Do we have the patience is the question?

Honestly, what I come back to is this: What do we have to lose? Seriously?

We've been trying this thing for 132 years or something like that. Extend Beamer through 2031 and give him a solid decade. Worst case scenario, in 2031, we'll likely be about where we always have been. Best case scenario, the patience pays off and he builds a winner.

In 130+ years, we've had maybe 5 REALLY good seasons, depending on your criteria. Zero great seasons. It's not like we risk tarnishing our legacy.

 

[Deleted11512]

Made the same case with Beamer's dad's record. Frank's head was on the platter, but the AD had faith, did not fire him and was rewarded with a legend and HOF coach. Everyone responded with ''times have changed'' or ''it's a new era of CFB''. So, the Harbaugh references above are current and again demonstrates patience can be rewarded.
Do we have the patience is the question?

Good question. In reality, Beamer is way ahead of his dad at the same time of their careers. Shane won 20 games his first 3 years, Frank won 11.

 

[Prestonyte]

Honestly, what I come back to is this: What do we have to lose? Seriously?

We've been trying this thing for 132 years or something like that. Extend Beamer through 2031 and give him a solid decade. Worst case scenario, in 2031, we'll likely be about where we always have been. Best case scenario, the patience pays off and he builds a winner.

In 130+ years, we've had maybe 5 REALLY good seasons, depending on your criteria. Zero great seasons. It's not like we risk tarnishing our legacy.

Exactly my thoughts.
Lots of teams are on the 5-6 year coaching rotation, including us. How is trying something new going to be any worse and it might produce what we've been self-destructing on our own for years with rotating coaches.

 

[Deleted11512]

Honestly, what I come back to is this: What do we have to lose? Seriously?

We've been trying this thing for 132 years or something like that. Extend Beamer through 2031 and give him a solid decade. Worst case scenario, in 2031, we'll likely be about where we always have been. Best case scenario, the patience pays off and he builds a winner.

In 130+ years, we've had maybe 5 REALLY good seasons, depending on your criteria. Zero great seasons. It's not like we risk tarnishing our legacy.

I tend to lean here. Obviously, if we win 3-4 next year it's a different conversation. And if he had on 5-6 games in years 1-2 it would be different as well. People don't like to hear it, but he proved he can exceed expectations in each of his first 2 games...by quite a bit.

 

[Deleted11512]

Exactly my thoughts.
Lots of teams are on the 5-6 year coaching rotation, including us. How is trying something new going to be any worse and it might produce what we've been self-destructing on our own for years with rotating coaches.

I also think there are other factors. What's the culture like? Are players getting in trouble? How are grades? Ultimately winning is all that matters, but the other stuff can warrant more patience.

 

[Prestonyte]

I tend to lean here. Obviously, if we win 3-4 next year it's a different conversation. And if he had on 5-6 games in years 1-2 it would be different as well. People don't like to hear it, but he proved he can exceed expectations in each of his first 2 games...by quite a bit.

He did surprise a lot of people. Reasonable expectations is key in making judgement.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Exactly my thoughts.
Lots of teams are on the 5-6 year coaching rotation, including us. How is trying something new going to be any worse and it might produce what we've been self-destructing on our own for years with rotating coaches.

I tend to lean here. Obviously, if we win 3-4 next year it's a different conversation. And if he had on 5-6 games in years 1-2 it would be different as well. People don't like to hear it, but he proved he can exceed expectations in each of his first 2 games...by quite a bit.

Odds are, in 2031, we'll be in about the same shape we always have been, whether that coach is Beamer or someone else. Maybe if you keep Beamer the continuity results in him building a winner, though. Would I rather do what we always have done with the track record of results it has produced, or is it worth trying something different?

I'd rather cast my lot with a coach who genuinely wants to be here than just going on the market for another hired gun. He loves the program. He loves the school. He and his family love the state. It's not just a job to him...unless he's the greatest bull crapper in history. As mentioned above, you have the culture aspect as well.

 

[Prestonyte]

Odds are, in 2031, we'll be in about the same shape we always have been, whether that coach is Beamer or someone else. Maybe if you keep Beamer the continuity results in him building a winner, though. Would I rather do what we always have done with the track record of results it has produced, or is it worth trying something different?

I'd rather cast my lot with a coach who genuinely wants to be here than just going on the market for another hired gun. He loves the program. He loves the school. He and his family love the state. It's not just a job to him...unless he's the greatest bull crapper in history. As mentioned above, you have the culture aspect as well.

Done. Call Ray with the news of our decision.

 

[Deleted11512]

There are a few posters whose blood is boiling reading this thread. lol

 

[18IsTheMan]

There are a few posters whose blood is boiling reading this thread. lol

Indeed. However, the logic is infallible.

 

[Viennacock]

Made the same case with Beamer's dad's record. Frank's head was on the platter, but the AD had faith, did not fire him and was rewarded with a legend and HOF coach. Everyone responded with ''times have changed'' or ''it's a new era of CFB''. So, the Harbaugh references above are current and again demonstrates patience can be rewarded.
Do we have the patience is the question?

Different sport but coach K could have easily been let go in his early years at Duke. We all know how that ended.

 

[Lurker123]

Did you guys look at Harbaughs record before starting this thread? Or is this one of those sarcastic threads where you're laughing the whole time?

Yes, fans were annoyed at him losing, and losing badly to OSU. But in his first 4 years, he went:

10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3

His WORST season equals Shane's best.

I think a lot of people on here would love to give Shane more time if he had three 10 win seasons in his first four years.

And I doubt Michigan would have kept him with one, much less two losing seasons in his first four.

 

[18IsTheMan]

Did you guys look at Harbaughs record before starting this thread?

Yes, fans were annoyed at him losing, and losing badly to OSU. But he went:

10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3

His WORST season equals Shane's best.

I think a lot of people on here would love to give Shane more time if he had three 10 win seasons in his first four years.

And I doubt Michigan would have kept him with one, much less two losing seasons in his first four.

Yes, but as the OP noted, it's not apples to apples. Success at Michigan is not the same as success at USC.

 

[Lurker123]

Yes, but as the OP noted, it's not apples to apples. Success at Michigan is not the same as success at USC.

They had one double digit winning season in the decade before he was hired.

I think three 10 win seasons in four is stretching the comparison a bit too far.

 

[Deleted11512]

Did you guys look at Harbaughs record before starting this thread? Or is this one of those sarcastic threads where you're laughing the whole time?

Yes, fans were annoyed at him losing, and losing badly to OSU. But in his first 4 years, he went:

10-3
10-3
8-5
10-3

His WORST season equals Shane's best.

I think a lot of people on here would love to give Shane more time if he had three 10 win seasons in his first four years.

And I doubt Michigan would have kept him with one, much less two losing seasons in his first four.

10 win seasons don't move the needle at Mich. Conference championships, beating OSU, and competing for NCs do. Sure, for us we'd erect a statue. The fact remains that for 5 of his first 6 seasons he was AT BEST 3rd in his division...while getting his *** handed to him by OSU. Four straight bowl losses doesn't help either. I'd say winning 10 and losing bowl games would be the equivalent of winning 7 and just going to a bowl game here. It's the expectation. Should be the minimum.

 

[Lurker123]

10 win seasons don't move the needle at Mich. Conference championships, beating OSU, and competing for NCs do. Sure, for us we'd erect a statue. The fact remains that for 5 of his first 6 seasons he was AT BEST 3rd in his division...while getting his *** handed to him by OSU. Four straight bowl losses doesn't help either. I'd say winning 10 and losing bowl games would be the equivalent of winning 7 and just going to a bowl game here. It's the expectation. Should be the minimum.

As i stated above, they had one double digit winning season in the decade before he was hired.

I understand we want to try and make a point centered solely around higher expectations at Michigan. It simply falls flat, imo, given the records.

 

[18IsTheMan]

As i stated above, they had one double digit winning season in the decade before he was hired.

I understand we want to try and make a point centered solely around higher expectations at Michigan. It simply falls flat, imo, given the records.

That does include Hoke who was canned after 4 years and Hoke who was canned after 3 years. Carr was before that and he had a title, 6 double-digit win seasons and, was 6-7 against OSU and 6 top 10 finishes.

 

[Deleted11512]

As i stated above, they had one double digit winning season in the decade before he was hired.

I understand we want to try and make a point centered solely around higher expectations at Michigan. It simply falls flat, imo, given the records.

Yeah, and one guy got fired after 3 years, the other 4. It's making my point. The point is, even though he wasn't winning championships, they stuck with him b/c he game them reason to believe he would (winning 10 games). He also missed that mark two years, and had the crazy covid year for whatever that's worth. I'm just saying, as long as Beamer is doing the same we should follow the same path.

 

[Deleted11512]

That does include Hoke who was canned after 4 years and Hoke who was canned after 3 years. Carr was before that and he had a title, 6 double-digit win seasons and, was 6-7 against OSU and 6 top 10 finishes.

Carr also won 5 B10 championships. Before Carr, Gary Moeller won 3 B10 championships in each of his first 3 years. That followed Schembechler, and we all know what legacy he left. The point being, JH had kind of been in the middle of RichRod/Hoke and Carr/Moeller in terms of success.

 

[Lurker123]

That does include Hoke who was canned after 4 years and Hoke who was canned after 3 years. Carr was before that and he had a title, 6 double-digit win seasons and, was 6-7 against OSU and 6 top 10 finishes.

Hoke and Rodriguez, but yes. So multiple coaches since Carr (who finished less than stellar) and 1 double digit win season. Compared to 3 in the first 4 years.

 

[Lurker123]

Yeah, and one guy got fired after 3 years, the other 4. It's making my point. The point is, even though he wasn't winning championships, they stuck with him b/c he game them reason to believe he would (winning 10 games). He also missed that mark two years, and had the crazy covid year for whatever that's worth. I'm just saying, as long as Beamer is doing the same we should follow the same path.

I have a little issue here. You are applauding Michigan showing patience, yet in this post you offer up them firing one coach after 3 years, and one coach after 4 years as supporting that point.

I would say it's the opposite. They didn't show an abundance of patience until they found a coach who gave them reason to. And that reason was 3 ten win seasons out of 4 to start off. I disagree with the notion that Beamers lower level of success is somehow equal to Harbaughs success.

If we're using this scenario to compare to Beamer, he compares more to Hoke than to Harbaugh. And Hoke was fired after 4 years and only one losing season.

 

[18IsTheMan]

I have a little issue here. You are applauding Michigan showing patience, yet in this post you offer up them firing one coach after 3 years, and one coach after 4 years as supporting that point.

I would say it's the opposite. They didn't show an abundance of patience until they found a coach who gave them reason to. And that reason was 3 ten win seasons out of 4 to start off. I disagree with the notion that Beamers lower level of success is somehow equal to Harbaughs success.

If we're using this scenario to compare to Beamer, he compares more to Hoke than to Harbaugh. And Hoke was fired after 4 years and only one losing season.

10-win seasons are UM are not a big deal. Conference titles, beating OSU and contending for titles is what matters. Harbaugh was not doing any of that, and not winning bowl games either, in his first 6 years.

 

[Lurker123]

10-win seasons are UM are not a big deal. Conference titles, beating OSU and contending for titles is what matters. Harbaugh was not doing any of that, and not winning bowl games either, in his first 6 years.

I understand the entire premise is predicated on higher expectations at Michigan. And I get coaches will be judged more harshly at Michigan.

I just think we're over stretching that idea, by a TON, to try and argue Beamer is doing just as well as the guy with 3 ten win seasons in 4 years.

Again, I'd say he's closer to Hoke, who was fired in 4 years. And when I say closer, he still wasn't doing as well as Hoke.

11-2
8-5
7-6
5-7

 

[18IsTheMan]

I understand the entire premise is predicated on higher expectations at Michigan. And I get coaches will be judged more harshly at Michigan.

I just think we're over stretching that idea, by a TON, to try and argue Beamer is doing just as well as the guy with 3 ten win seasons in 4 years.

Again, I'd say he's closer to Hoke, who was fired in 4 years. And when I say closer, he still wasn't doing as well as Hoke.

11-2
8-5
7-6
5-7

But it has to be looked at through the lens that expectations here are just lower. You can't do a direct comparison of Beamer to Hoke.

Honestly, a 10 season at UM probably generates about as much excitement from their fan base as a 7 win season does for us, maybe less, especially if one of their losses was to OSU.

 

[Deleted11512]

I understand the entire premise is predicated on higher expectations at Michigan. And I get coaches will be judged more harshly at Michigan.

I just think we're over stretching that idea, by a TON, to try and argue Beamer is doing just as well as the guy with 3 ten win seasons in 4 years.

Again, I'd say he's closer to Hoke, who was fired in 4 years. And when I say closer, he still wasn't doing as well as Hoke.

11-2
8-5
7-6
5-7

Not even close. Michigan is like Bama. They don't sit around and debate whether or not a 10 win season was a success. Did you win a championship? No? Then it's not a success. We don't have that "problem" here. Brady Hoke going 7-6 at Michigan is like Will Muschamp going 4-8 here. I'd say there a solid 3 game handicap. Some here have predicted we will go 4-8 next year. If that happens, all this is for naught.

 

[Lurker123]

But it has to be looked at through the lens that expectations here are just lower. You can't do a direct comparison of Beamer to Hoke.

Honestly, a 10 season at UM probably generates about as much excitement from their fan base as a 7 win season does for us, maybe less, especially if one of their losses was to OSU.

This is where we disagree. I cannot say a 7 win season is equivalent to a 10 win season, regardless of higher expectations.

 

[Prestonyte]

Our real point of discussion is are we any worse off by giving Beamer some time rather than rotating through coaches every 5-6 years as we have been doing. History tells us that even if Beamer is very slow to develop our record will not be significantly worse and we may end up with the result we have always wanted - a quality coach who considers Carolina home. Or we keep doing the same thing and getting the same results.

 

[Lurker123]

Not even close. Michigan is like Bama. They don't sit around and debate whether or not a 10 win season was a success. Did you win a championship? No? Then it's not a success. We don't have that "problem" here. Brady Hoke going 7-6 at Michigan is like Will Muschamp going 4-8 here. I'd say there a solid 3 game handicap. Some here have predicted we will go 4-8 next year. If that happens, all this is for naught.

As i said above, I disagree strongly with the 3 game handicap. And I think the two of you are putting way too much into higher expectations.

Amazingly, I disagree on next year too. I think 4-8 or 5-7 gets Beamer one more year.

 

[Lurker123]

Our real point of discussion is are we any worse off by giving Beamer some time rather than rotating through coaches every 5-6 years as we have been doing. History tells us that even if Beamer is very slow to develop our record will not be significantly worse and we may end up with the result we have always wanted - a quality coach who considers Carolina home. Or we keep doing the same thing and getting the same results.

Should we have kept muschamp around then?

I disagree with the notion that you keep a failing coach around, just to "try something different". And I believe you can make that judgement in 4 years, and certainly in 5.

 

[Deleted11512]

As i said above, I disagree strongly with the 3 game handicap. And I think the two of you are putting way too much into higher expectations.

Amazingly, I disagree on next year too. I think 4-8 or 5-7 gets Beamer one more year.

Well, that can only mean one thing. Beamer to the moon baby!!

 

[Prestonyte]

Should we have kept muschamp around then?

I disagree with the notion that you keep a failing coach around, just to "try something different". And I believe you can make that judgement in 4 years, and certainly in 5.

If those quick judgements had been made on Frank Beamer and Harbaugh, they never would have achieved what they ended up accomplishing. Muschamp was not a Carolina man in his heart.

 

[Lurker123]

If those quick judgements had been made on Frank Beamer and Harbaugh, they never would have achieved what they ended up accomplishing. Muschamp was not a Carolina man in his heart.

Frank is an outlier, not the norm.

Harbaugh won double digits three out of his first four years. The only judgement there was that he was succeeding.

So we're back to just Frank, like this discussion always ends up at.

 

[Tngamecock]

Made the same case with Beamer's dad's record. Frank's head was on the platter, but the AD had faith, did not fire him and was rewarded with a legend and HOF coach. Everyone responded with ''times have changed'' or ''it's a new era of CFB''. So, the Harbaugh references above are current and again demonstrates patience can be rewarded.
Do we have the patience is the question?

Think of Dabo in year 3…..losing record. (And for the poster that likes to argue that wasn’t really his third year, but was 2.5 years bc his first was interim…..save it). We need to win now…but firing Beamer would be stupid at this point.

 

[Prestonyte]

Frank is an outlier, not the norm.

Harbaugh won double digits three out of his first four years. The only judgement there was that he was succeeding.

So we're back to just Frank, like this discussion always ends up at.

So, I guess your vote is to continue the coaching carousel and everybody has a vote.

 

[Big JC]

I can't help but chuckle when I see the "Beamer loves Carolina and this is where he wants to be" posts. He turned down a scholarship to Charleston Southern to walk on at Virginia Tech and ultimately played at VT. His only previous connection to Carolina was as an assistant under SOS.

I'm sure he likes his job here and he probably enjoys living in Columbia but I really don't think his "heart" is at Carolina and he would turn down a job offer to be head coach from Virginia Tech. He worked for Kirby for a couple seasons in Athens and was at Miss St. as his first full time coaching job.

Another losing season next year and it will be obvious what we have in Beamer. If some want to keep him and are happy with his results, fine. Personally, I have a problem paying $6million a year to a coach for losing seasons and "hope" that things will turn around.

 

[Deleted11512]

I have a little issue here. You are applauding Michigan showing patience, yet in this post you offer up them firing one coach after 3 years, and one coach after 4 years as supporting that point.

I would say it's the opposite. They didn't show an abundance of patience until they found a coach who gave them reason to. And that reason was 3 ten win seasons out of 4 to start off. I disagree with the notion that Beamers lower level of success is somehow equal to Harbaughs success.

If we're using this scenario to compare to Beamer, he compares more to Hoke than to Harbaugh. And Hoke was fired after 4 years and only one losing season.

The premise in my applauding them firing Hoke and Rich Rod is that I think expectations at Mich should be at least 3 games better than USC. You just can't win 6-7 games at Mich multiple years and survive. And you shouldn't. But that's not true at USC. We can say it shouldn't be true at USC either, but our history would indicate otherwise.

Beamer gave us reason to hope he's going to figure it out his first two years...enough to weather this past 5 win season, and to hang with him a few more year in that 6-7 win area. But in my view, he's going to have to elevate the program to be here longer than 6 years.