Did Kelly already leave ND?
- Thread starter BigDawg0074
- Start date
They won't. Three teams are set: Alabama, Georgia, and Cincinnati. Michigan is in with a win. If they lose, Baylor will take their spot.
It’s hard to say what the committee will do. Conference champion getting the nod sounds reasonable but would Baylor jump five spots from that extra game? I’m not so sure.
By that same token they shouldn’t be #6 but there they sit. The question isn’t UGA getting in, it’s who replaces Michigan if they lose. It won’t be #5 so who will it be? #9 Baylor or #6 Notre Dame? Michigan will make it easy for the committee if they go ahead and take care of business.
I think the committee will lose some sleep trying to pick between Baylor and ND in this scenario. The conference championship and 3 top15 wins are something Noted Dame has nothing of.
Agreed. ND’s schedule is arguably softer than even the BigXII conference schedule (plus BYU) that Baylor played. I don’t see how you can justify ND over them with anything other than financial incentive.
A loss to a 5-7 team doesn’t trump 3 wins over Top 15 teams. Big picture - one of those 3 wins is cancelled out by the bad loss. Net result is 2 big wins for Baylor. ND had a net result of nothing. They only played one great team all year, and lost.
3 signature wins + 1 bad loss >>>>>>> 0 signature wins + 0 bad losses.
Kinda hope Iowa comes back so we can settle this debate. I actually think theyll take Baylor over ND.
I know the data points aren’t exactly the same, but 6-6 VaTech beat future national champ Ohio State in 2014, who got into the playoff over one loss Baylor/TCU teams who didn’t have the conference championship to their names, but their losses were better.
Actually, they’ll still have to rank them regardless, won’t they. Will be interesting to see if Baylor jumps ND.
1 loss doesn’t trump two losses if the schedules aren’t equal, and they aren’t. ND’s schedule sucked….period. The 3 signature wins for Baylor include two teams that were Top 5 in the CFP rankings when they played, and a 3rd who is Top 15. Middle of the pack in the SEC is what Top 5 CFP teams are, now? Also, all those wins are better than ND’s best win over a freaking 8-4 Wisconsin.
”Plus, it’s Notre freaking Dame”….what the 17 does that even mean? They are owed a spot because of Touchdown Jesus and Rudy and because they won their last natty like 4 decades ago?
You’re making an emotional argument instead of a fact based one. And the committee still might look at all that, and still choose ND if the scenario played out….but its not some slam dunk, no brainer decision by any means.
There’s never really been a compelling case for a 2-loss team to make it. If Iowa wins, you’d have Michigan, Baylor, and Iowa all at 11-2 against pretty decent schedules, and an 11-1 ND with a weak schedule. There wouldn’t be a lot of separation between any of those teams. There’s a case to be made for any of the other 3 over ND. There’s also a case for ND. It would be messy either way.
ETA: Looks like its going to not matter. Michigan is starting to run away with it.
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There’s really no point in talking about schedules at all if Cincinnati is in. SOS would be completely out the window at that point.
Not necessarily. They are 13-0, with a win over a Top 10 CFP team. The next best teams are going to be 11-2. I think if Cincinnati played just a Top 25ish team instead of ND….they are out. Likewise, if Oklahoma State won today, they also might be out. But none of that happened, and they got the big W that has been missing on every G5 resume since this thing started in 2014.
Yeah but they got the brakes beaten off of them the last 3 times they were in the CFP.
They got to focus on one team the entire season, the only decent win on their schedule, and ND is absurdly overrated as they are every year. OK State walks in if they win today. I would rather watch them or Baylor play Cincinnati in a bowl game.
In my gut I think you are correct about everything you are saying….I think Baylor could take them down and OSU definitely gets their spot if they won. Definitely think ND is overrated. But, it’s a bridge too far to put a team with a couple of losses in over an undefeated with a win over Top 5-6 CFP team. Baylor / OSU / Cincy are similar by the eye test, I don’t think there’s a team that would just consistently dominate the other two in that group of 3. In the end, Cincy was the only one in the group that didn’t do anything to hurt themselves.
Cincinnati didn’t have a chance to hurt themselves, other teams did. Like the insane extra covid years when you give one thing something you take one away from another. For every college senior out there that got an extra BS year you potentially take away a scholarship from a high school senior. When Cincinnati gets in just because, a likely more deserving team gets left out.
They had chances to slip up. The Houston team they beat today was 11-1 coming in. They played ND on the road. They played an 8-4 UCF and 8-4 SMU who were solid bowl bound teams, albeit not world beaters. And yeah the rest of their schedule was soft.
But again, everything had to go perfectly for them to get in. If Oklahoma State had won today by the guy jumping a half inch closer to the pylon, they are out. If Notre Dame finished 9-3, they are out. If they didn’t play Notre Dame and played, say, Clemson instead, they are out. If they slipped up against anyone the way that Baylor did against a 5-7 TCU, they are out. If Baylor themselves didn’t slip up and lose to TCU, they are out. If Ohio State didn’t lose to Oregon, they are out. If Oklahoma State didn’t lose to Iowa State, they are out. A hell of a lot had to go right for them, and they controlled what they could control. Give credit where it’s due.
Big picture wise….you are basically saying a G5 can never, ever make a 4-team playoff if you don’t take Cincinnati this year with how everything played out.
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Big picture wise yes, it will never work. To be honest the BCS already worked if you’re looking for 1 against 2. Go to 8, 16, 32 and how does it ever work? If Cincinnati is in the playoffs this year it proves it’s wrong.
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