Seems to be this idea floating around that we have a super manageable schedule this year, I don’t particularly see it.
Do we have an “easy” football schedule this year?
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8 home games and no Georgia, yea its an easier schedule
Eas-IER not eas-Y. Ultimately, if Auburn, A&M and UK are vastly improved, it will a dog-fight to get to 4-4.
I think it can be both easier than last year's schedule but still also a difficult schedule.
Easier than the last couple of years, but it's never a cakewalk in the SEC:
"Probable Wins":
SELA
WMU
Arizona
USM
"Probable Losses":
LSU
Alabama
“Swing Votes”:
South Carolina
Arkansas
Kentucky
Auburn
A&M
Ole Miss
Last year, the “Probable Wins” were the same, “Swing Votes” were lower, and the “Probable Losses” were bigger. We really won’t know what we or the rest of the middle of the SEC pack look like until a few weeks in.
For comparison, last year:
"Probable Wins":
Memphis (W)
ETSU (W)
Auburn (W)
Bowling Green (W)
"Probable Losses":
LSU (L)
A&M (W)
Alabama (L)
Georgia (L)
"Swing Votes":
Arizona (W)
Arkansas (W)
Kentucky (L)
Ole Miss (W)
So, last year, we won all 4 of the ones we were supposed to, won 1 we weren't supposed to, and won 3 of 4 in the swing games. To get to 8 regular season wins this year, we need to win all 4 of the ones we're supposed to and go 4 of 6 in the swing games or we would have to upset Bama and/or LSU.
"Probable Wins":
SELA
WMU
Arizona
USM
"Probable Losses":
LSU
Alabama
“Swing Votes”:
South Carolina
Arkansas
Kentucky
Auburn
A&M
Ole Miss
Last year, the “Probable Wins” were the same, “Swing Votes” were lower, and the “Probable Losses” were bigger. We really won’t know what we or the rest of the middle of the SEC pack look like until a few weeks in.
For comparison, last year:
"Probable Wins":
Memphis (W)
ETSU (W)
Auburn (W)
Bowling Green (W)
"Probable Losses":
LSU (L)
A&M (W)
Alabama (L)
Georgia (L)
"Swing Votes":
Arizona (W)
Arkansas (W)
Kentucky (L)
Ole Miss (W)
So, last year, we won all 4 of the ones we were supposed to, won 1 we weren't supposed to, and won 3 of 4 in the swing games. To get to 8 regular season wins this year, we need to win all 4 of the ones we're supposed to and go 4 of 6 in the swing games or we would have to upset Bama and/or LSU.
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Well, we Beat the brakes off a & m and Arkansas last year, have a fourth year qb and a bunch of 4th and 5th year seniors returning on both sides of the ball. I don’t see how we don’t at least win 8 with 8 home games and no Georgia.
the offensive scheme and coaching staff are superior to the one last year according to a lot of local media and fans but then again a lot of analysts Outside Mississippi are predicting 6 wins.
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As the old saying goes, past performance does not dictate future results. With transfers and the portal, those teams could be radically different than they were last year. Plus, we're playing both Arkansas and A&M on the road and winning on the road in the SEC is not necessarily easy.
Just look back at the two games against Kansas State. We beat them pretty handily on the road in 2018. I think most people assumed we'd win in Starkville a year later and obviously we didn't.
Fast forward to last year. We didn't really have any trouble with Arizona in Tucson (at least not any that wasn't self inflicted). So you'd think beating them at home would be, if not a given, then at least on the "easy" portion of our schedule. But I have no idea if they've improved or not. No idea about who they lost or added. Or look at last year's Kentucky game from the perspective of a game we lost.
Throw in the fact that we have a new coaching staff and are breaking in a new offensive scheme and who knows what some of our matchups will look like.
i think this team would win 10 with the prior staff but like you said there are a lot of unknowns. There seems to be a huge difference in opinion between national analysts and local media as far as expectations.
The Arnett piece is a huge mystery in all this. You’re potentially looking at A TON of toss up, potentially close games for a head coach that’s never had to do it before, outside of the one bowl game that was an unprecedented situation. Doing it week after week is a different conversation.
And I say that as a guy who likes Arnett and thinks he can be a success. I just don’t really know what we have at head coach yet. And that’s definitely a tricky schedule to me.
And I say that as a guy who likes Arnett and thinks he can be a success. I just don’t really know what we have at head coach yet. And that’s definitely a tricky schedule to me.
We'll be an unstoppable force this year as our opponents ain't gonna know what hit 'em. We will shock and awe on offense with even a stronger D. I'm eyeing an unexpected Natty.
I think, as usual, you're trolling. It's a typically difficult schedule. The prior coaching staff would probably win 6-7 games and the current one will probably win 6 +/- 1 games.
LOL, I've made it a rule to never use sarcasterisks. I like to keep people guessing and sometimes it's even a way to weed out the naive and gullible.
Comparing 2018 to 2019 is a lot different than 2022 to 23. The 2019 team lost a ton on defense and everyone knew we would take a step back. 2023 returns a ton and the game against Arizona is at home. They recruit at the same level as Vandy in recruiting rankings. This should and will be a win unless something crazy happens. Kentucky is losing a bunch, to include a 2nd round quarterback and we play them at home where we never lose to them. Our new offensive scheme would be a much bigger deal if the old offensive scheme was actually effective, but it was not against anyone that had a pulse defensively. How much worse can it really be? Moorhead scored like 3 ppg less than Leach in SEC play. It’s just not going to be that big of a difference even if it’s a bad offense. Our defense returns almost everyone. You are right that we don’t know how Arnett will do since he’s a first year head coach. That being said, this is a veteran team and Arnett isn’t soft like Moorhead. There’s not going to be a locker room issue.
I'd trade playing Bama and LSU on the road (since we traditionally lose those anyway) with getting 50/50 games at home.
This year’s schedule is much tougher than last season’s. I don’t think people realize how manageable 2022 was - yes we had UGA. But outside of UGA & @ Bama, we played s h i t t y A&M, Arkansas, and Auburn teams at home. When was the last time they’ve been that bad collectively? A 7-6 UK team and an imploding OM.
The most frustrating game of all in ‘22 was LSU who were trying to find their identity the 3rd week of the season. We arrived in Baton Rouge with our high flying air raid offense and scored a total of 3 points in the last 2 and a half quarters.
You just have to look at the prediction thread for that game to see that not many people thought we'd lose that game. Granted that it's an MSU board but 49 or so people picked MSU to win that game. Five people picked K-State to win. And some of the scores predictions for MSU are things like 45-7, 42-17, 49-24. That doesn't seem like "everyone knew we would take a step back" to me.
Losing a bunch of players on defense is an understandable reason why we lost that K State home game. And basically proves my point... which is that there could be any number of reasons why either MSU or an opponent will be better or worse this year than they were last year. We just won't know how good/bad we are or how good/bad our opponents are until we play a few games.
Hindsight yes. But everyone was predicting A&M, KY and Auburn to be really tough last season. They were picking Ole Miss to make a run. We all knew that was BS. Preseason last year we had what the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation. This time last year our schedule looked a lot tougher than it does looking at this schedule at the same time this year. Do we really know how hard or how easy it is going to be until we play it? Auburn will be better, but I think KY is going to fall off the map and A&M is going to A&M the season, 8 or less wins. Ole Miss is still going to have man boy leading a bunch of transfers who could not make it at the previous schools with possible locker room crap.
Just saying. Not arguing.
It’s a schedule you can make a run with if you’re any good. That’s the big variable. We never truly know if we are.
Alabama and LSU at home when they're both preseason top-10 teams is never a good schedule to make a run with. The schedules to make a run with are the ones with those teams on the road and the toss-up games at home.
This is the point. If you are good enough to possibly make a run, you want Alabama and LSU at home. When I say make a run, I mean 11-1 or so.
2014 was a good schedule for going 9-3 or 10-2, if you have a good team. Having LSU, Bama and Ole Miss on the road that year was always a killer. That was one of our best teams ever, and only won 1 of those 3 games.
If this is just another 5-6 win or even 7-8 win team in 2023, then who cares.
There is no SEC schedule that’s going to get us to 11-1. You’re living in a fantasy world.
Mississippi State is going to be very good on defense this year. Our offense may or may not be any good, but it wasn’t any good last year so that’s a wash. We aren’t going to lose to Arizona.
This year’s schedule is not tougher than last. We trade out Georgia for South Carolina and get Kentucky at home. A&M, Auburn, and Arkansas haven’t done anything to suggest that they aren’t going to be a train wreck once again.
We have 6 home games that we can actually win. And 4 of 5 historical swing games for us (Auburn, Arkansas, USC, and A&M) on the road.
It’s an odd numbered year, so no different than any other like it….we start off behind the 8-ball big time due to having 2 automatic home losses.
Exactly. And if we won nine games last year, returning nearly the entire team with an easier schedule, it’s very reasonable to expect ten wins this year. Given it’s a rookie staff with a lot of question marks and an entirely different offense, makes it a little less likely we win ten games IMO.
I think 8 wins is a very reasonable expectation, especially considering we have 8 home games.
The ones against the two teams we are a combined 3-27 against over the past 15 years…..with all 3 wins being against subpar coaches with really bad QB play. And neither of those will be the case this year with either team.
Why do I get the feeling you’re asking questions you already know the answers to?
We replaced UGA with SC. With Spencer Rattler returning and SC improving mightily, the result won't change, but the score might be a little closer.
I hate that we play them on the road and that it’s sandwiched in between Bama and LSU. That is a really tough three week stretch for us in late September.
Having South Carolina written down as an auto loss before the season starts is quite the take.
We have been very competitive against LSU for a decade now. We were beating them in the 4th quarter on the road last year. They lost to Texas A&M with this same team last year. Had 4 losses total. They are a very beatable team.
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