So you're saying there is a chance?
I will be. Not sure which one we'll win, but I think we win one and maybe two. Which is pretty much exactly what FPI says, it predicts 2.4 more wins (counting USM).
If we let him go at 5-7 and had an immediate clear-cut improvement I'd be for it. Absent that, if we're going to roll the dice, I'd just as soon roll the dice on giving him a 2nd year to see if we have anything at all to build with.
At this point we are losing all the Leach guys to graduation or the portal. I doubt Rogers is on the roster next year. Probably be Mike Wright and Chris Parson, and while we may not be overall as talented, I'd like to see if 'Arnett's program' begins to at least take shape and look a little more functional, even in the losses. Really just don't think it's a great time for us to go coach shopping either.
Chances against UK, Auburn, and OM all seem a tad low, but I won’t dispute their current projection. The rest seem to be about what I’d expect. Who knows how much that one LSU game is affecting their formula, it was certainly an unbridled shítshow.
5-7 is the cut line. The result where It all depends on how we get there. If we struggle but play hard for the next month, and finish strong with convincing wins over USM / OM, maybe. If KJ Jefferson goes down for the year against Bama and we cobble together a 1 point shootout OT win against Ark, against their backup QB, in a game where Will throws 3 picks, and we proceed to get blown out by everyone else except USM, then no. There’s a lot of nuance that must be applied at 5-7.
It’s a good representation of the current state of things considering that all 5 of those were considered to be tossups before the season started. Now, there’s only 1-2 that can be considered an ok chance
