FC: OSU -15 vs PSU….
- Thread starter Midnighter
- Start date
I have -16.5.
It gets a little worse if I adjust for some match up discrepancies. The rushing success differences are scary, both off and def.
It gets a little worse if I adjust for some match up discrepancies. The rushing success differences are scary, both off and def.
I expected it to be around 20, and normally it is 5-7 advantage for home team. Most would estimate that tOSU can score over 40. Just comes down to PSU scoring in the 30's to keep it close. Not sure of our OL health, so that could be a factor. We also need guys like Chop to be back. It would be nice to see Lee back as the 2 RB rotation can be physically hard on FR.
Not a gambler but I will say this, while I'm not expecting a win (would of course love one), we almost always play O$U close at home. This line is fair but disregards the history of this matchup.
My instinct from watching this team would be to lay the points. But Franklin always seems to get the team up to play Ohio State tougher than I expect. So I guess what I’m saying is just flip a coin.
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5 to 7 points is way too much. 4.5 for a white out is about as high as I ever go. 2 to 3 points is around average.
If we play well and to our abilities, I am hoping we keep it to within 14 points….I think it’s a 24 point difference, hope I am wrong.
They say it’s lonely at the top. At least we’ll never be lonely.
YEAR: LOCATION RESULT PSU RANK/RECORD OSU RANK/RECORD
2022: @ PSU .................. (#13 6-1 v #2 7-0)
2021: @ OSU 9 pt loss (#20 5-2 v #5 6-1) .... fanless
2020: @ PSU 13 pt loss (#18 0-1 v #3 1-0)
2019: @ OSU 11 pt loss (#8 9-1 v #2 10-0)
2018: @ PSU 1 pt loss (#9 4-0 v #4 4-0)
2017: @ OSU 1 pt loss (#2 7-0 v #6 6-1)
2016: @ PSU 3 pt win (UR 4-2 v #2 6-0)
2015: @ OSU 28 pt loss (UR 5-1 v #1 6-0)
2014: @ PSU 7 pt loss (UR 4-2 v #13 5-1) .... 2 OT
Seems crazy to suggest OSU -15.
2022: @ PSU .................. (#13 6-1 v #2 7-0)
2021: @ OSU 9 pt loss (#20 5-2 v #5 6-1) .... fanless
2020: @ PSU 13 pt loss (#18 0-1 v #3 1-0)
2019: @ OSU 11 pt loss (#8 9-1 v #2 10-0)
2018: @ PSU 1 pt loss (#9 4-0 v #4 4-0)
2017: @ OSU 1 pt loss (#2 7-0 v #6 6-1)
2016: @ PSU 3 pt win (UR 4-2 v #2 6-0)
2015: @ OSU 28 pt loss (UR 5-1 v #1 6-0)
2014: @ PSU 7 pt loss (UR 4-2 v #13 5-1) .... 2 OT
Seems crazy to suggest OSU -15.
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^^ This. The betters are hoping that the casual gambler does not know the past history of the series and hopes they will lay big money down on OSU for an easy blow-out win. Means more money for the house when and if PSU keeps it close like history has shown.
Maybe I should have said the "un-informed" gamblers. In other words, those who drop large sums on games without doing their homework on the teams.
Honestly, they won’t have any influence on a line either. Sharp money will drive any line movement. Books are really looking for a point where they won’t exploit one side or the other.
If you guys have success running the ball its a cover for Penn State. If not, it will be 45-10. I like K. Lee for Penn State in this game. Is he even still on the team? Need a guy to grind out tough yards
What Erial said. At this point the odds makers are mostly setting a line based on their power ratings and then will let sharp bettors shape it.
Lee rightfully has been passed by Allen and Singleton. Nothing against Lee but he lacked the quickness, vision and speed needed to play RB at PSU. Allen is our grinder, while Singleton is our home run hitter.
We have no chance. I heard the team is bowling all week and eating hoagies and staying up late after the coaches go to bed and sleeping in to noon. Some are even drinking regular Miller beers(eww) just to be rebellious.
Crazy line, just don't see it. Can't remember the last game in Happy Valley that wasn't a battle. I think PSU defense matches up as well in the passing game as any team in the B1G. If they can dial up some pressure on CJ, get consistent pressure with the down 4 and keep things underneath it's gonna be a 4 qtr game. I expect Buckeye defense much improved to make things difficult for your offense to find any consistent success. A couple big plays, turnovers and anything can happen. Not seeing 15 points unless PSU can't stop the run game without committing extra people to the line of scrimmage. That will create a problem on the backend. Iowa was successful in the first half dialing up multi-level pressures, 2nd half not so much.
Looking forward to a helluva battle as usual. Good luck to your Nits
Looking forward to a helluva battle as usual. Good luck to your Nits
I agree. Wouldn't touch that line.
The only reason I'm more confident than usual is because it's a noon game.
I don't believe any of the recent history involved the game being a noon kickoff. PSU is notorious going back a long time before Franklin of getting off to a slow start with a noon, local time, kickoff. Against OSU that can have you behind by several touchdowns by halftime.
I agree the "non whiteout", early start factor is legit and relative advantage for the Buckeyes but I still expect the Nittany Lion faithful to be loud and raucous making communications difficult for CJ and the offense. No doubt chances for a win would be greatly enhanced by a quick start, letting the run game get established as I don't see the downfield passing game likely to be able to overcome a big early lead if forced to become one-dimensional.
When we beat O$U in 2016 (I was there), everyone was screaming "We are back".
For me, I said that I would consider us "back" when we went an entire season as a home favorite, including a home game against O$U.
Obviously we continue to bump just under true "back" status
For me, I said that I would consider us "back" when we went an entire season as a home favorite, including a home game against O$U.
Obviously we continue to bump just under true "back" status
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