Final RPI Analysis for anyone that cares...

[8dog]

Let me be clear. I know we were terrible. I know we could not have scheduled our way into the tourney. But I played with the numbers just to see what some different scheduling would do. I had our RPI number from Boyd, our adjusted Record and Opponents' adjusted records from Boyd. I further adjusted our opponents' adjusted records to remove the games against us. That allowed me to back into our Opponents' Opponents' records. That final piece (opponents' opponents' record) is the only one I could not manipulate. So when I replaced certain opponents I tried to make sure they had a better or comparable SOS so that unknown factor could only have helped us. I think my methodology was correct, but at worst, its probably close enough.

To show you how much scheduling matters, we finished 107. Replacing NKU and Princeton with Troy and Jackson State, assuming we win 5 of 6 against them, and eliminating N. Alabama and Ark PB, we go from 107 to around 75. Im sure its easier to jump from 107 to 75 than from 75 to say 43, but still. This is incredible.

In another scenario, I did all of the above except replaced them with Ball St. and Jacksonville. This took us from 107 to 77 but it was likely much better because those two opponents had much better SOS than the ones we replaced.

Again, I get that "just win the games" solves everything. And want to say again, I am not saying this would have helped this year. I just used this year to illustrate the importance of scheduling.

 

[The Peeper]

My final analysis shows the biggest problems were a team batting avg of .277 and a staff ERA of 6.07.

Losing the final 11 conference games while being swept the final 3 weekend series indicates to me this team was ready to go home and "see their fat little girlfriends" (as Mike Leach would say) and move on w/ their lives instead of nutting up and showing a little fight.

 

[MSUDC11]

Nonconference scheduling is also why Arkansas is probably not going to host even with 18 SEC wins. It definitely matters.

 

[patdog]

Way to completely miss the point. Is even one person claiming the schedule cost us a bid? The point is, even if we had gone 5-6 in those last 11 games, we’d still be sitting home with 14 SEC wins because of the weak schedule.

 

[Hot Rock]

We would have lost more games to better opponents and dropped further down than 107. See, just win your games.

Scheduling may matter but you cannot say with any absolute that it would have been better. Playing better opponents means you lose more and with the BP problem we had this year, it could have been a lot worse.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

OOC scheduling is something we can control for the most part. I know Long Beach State wasn’t the juggernaut we thought they would be. But Northern KY, Princeton, UAPB, Southern University should not be on our schedule when there is so much better regional competition that would be happy to come to Starkville.

 

[8dog]

I used Jackson State. You dont think we could beat Jackson State 3 times?

Plus in a normal year you would be using a good state team that would win these games easily. Thats why you have to ignore how bad we were for this analysis.

 

[patdog]

What you’re not understanding is that even those losses would help our RPI more than wins over 300+ teams.

 

[Go Budaw]

OOC scheduling is something we can control for the most part. I know Long Beach State wasn’t the juggernaut we thought they would be. But Northern KY, Princeton, UAPB, Southern University should not be on our schedule when there is so much better regional competition that would be happy to come to Starkville.

LBSU didn’t really hurt us though. They were a Top 100ish team all year.

For any Power 5 team in the Southeastern US, you literally have to go way the hell out of your way to wind up with a 200+ nonconference SOS. Just filling your schedule up with average G5 teams from neighboring states gets you in the Top 150 easily. Its simply stunning that both MSU and Arkansas were able to end up with 250+ schedules.

 

[Hot Rock]

I used Jackson State. You dont think we could beat Jackson State 3 times?

Plus in a normal year you would be using a good state team that would win these games easily. Thats why you have to ignore how bad we were for this analysis.

Nope, not this year. Pitching depth just wasn't there. You cannot say definitively and neither can I. This team lost 11 of last 12 SEC games and did not deserve the post season. Just let it go, retool and come back next year.

 

[maroonmania]

LBSU didn’t really hurt us though. They were a Top 100ish team all year.

For any Power 5 team in the Southeastern US, you literally have to go way the hell out of your way to wind up with a 200+ nonconference SOS. Just filling your schedule up with average G5 teams from neighboring states gets you in the Top 150 easily. Its simply stunning that both MSU and Arkansas were able to end up with 250+ schedules.

Agree, the teams that COULD have cost us a bid had we had a slightly better year are teams that were predictably awful from the get go. We weren't burned by a bunch of teams that were really bad that were supposed to be at least average. You get what you get when you play Ivy league teams and mid to lower level SWAC teams.

 

[8dog]

Again. This is not about this year. I just used this years numbers.