Football Outsiders F+ Efficiency Rankings

[Perd Hapley]

For those who keep up with such things, our latest ranking in the F+ is #16….6th in the SEC.

Offensive F+ Ranking is #34 nationally
Defensive F+ Ranking is #13 nationally

For those not familiar, the F+ combines Football Outsiders own FEI rankings with Bill Connelly’s SP+ index and forms them into a single index. The FEI favors us a bit more, we are #13 there and #21 in the SP+.

Overall, not too shabby.

Other SEC teams of note:
#1 UGA
#4 Alabama
#5 Tennessee
#11 LSU
#13 Ole Miss
#29 Kentucky
#31 Arkansas
#32 Florida
#41 Texas A&M
#44 South Carolina
#48 Missouri
#52 Auburn
#94 Vanderbilt

 

[patdog]

GIGO

 

[OG Goat Holder]

GIGO

So you're one of the ones who think their eye test is better than advanced stats?

 

[johnson86-1]

So you're one of the ones who think their eye test is better than advanced stats?

I don't think advanced stats are garbage, but I think they are just a tool. For example, just looking at the rankings, I am guessing that whatever emphasis they put on recent performance is too low for LSU, even if it's a reasonable weighting in general.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I don't think advanced stats are garbage, but I think they are just a tool. For example, just looking at the rankings, I am guessing that whatever emphasis they put on recent performance is too low for LSU, even if it's a reasonable weighting in general.

I could be wrong, but there may not be a recency component to the formulas. Nor do I think actual game outcomes are considered. It is mostly drive efficiency (both offensive and defensive) adjusted for schedule and also adjusted to place more emphasis on “non garbage time” drives.

I don’t think they are a perfect assessment, but they do a way better job of ranking the teams than the conventional non-CFP polls do. And if you look at the rankings, the interesting thing is that most SEC teams fall within a few spots of their current poll rankings….except for MSU.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I don't think advanced stats are garbage, but I think they are just a tool. For example, just looking at the rankings, I am guessing that whatever emphasis they put on recent performance is too low for LSU, even if it's a reasonable weighting in general.

I agree. They are better for pro-sports because the schedules and competition is so much closer in comparison, and bigger sample sizes.

But patdog is calling it garbage to further his agenda that our offense isn't good, and that's laughable. L4shankly is the same way.

 

[patdog]

So you're one of the ones who think their eye test is better than advanced stats?

In this case, yes.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

I can look at the SEC and say I agree except KY should be ahead of us. The SEC isn't great behind 4 teams.

 

[patdog]

I can look at the SEC and say I agree except KY should be ahead of us. The SEC isn't great behind 4 teams.

I would argue the SEC isn't great beyond 2 teams. Also, to respond to an earlier poster, any ranking that has us ahead of Kentucky is garbage.

 

[patdog]

But patdog is calling it garbage to further his agenda that our offense isn't good, and that's laughable.

I'm gonna still trust my lying eyes on that one.

2 plays, -11 yards, fumble
8 plays, 19 yards, fumble
6 plays, 21 yards, hslf
7 plays, 9 yards, downs
2 plays, -3 yards, interception
4 plays, 8 yards, punt
3 plays, 5 yards, punt
6 plays, 12 yards, punt
3 plays, 4 yards, punt

 

[wsjmsu75]

I can look at the SEC and say I agree except KY should be ahead of us. The SEC isn't great behind 4 teams.

I doubt you could ever find a poll where there was not at least one or two teams ranked lower than a team that they beat head to head. Just the nature of polling.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I would argue the SEC isn't great beyond 2 teams. Also, to respond to an earlier poster, any ranking that has us ahead of Kentucky is garbage.

I’m a little unsure where you think the “garbage” is.

If your take is that our offense is much worse than the F+ reflects, consider that our offensive F+ ranking of #34 is good for 8th in the SEC. Our raw numbers of yards per game is currently….that’s right….8th in the SEC. Our scoring offense is actually a little better….6th in the SEC. Guess who is dead last in both by a country mile? Kentucky.

All the F+ is saying is “Hey MSU, raw compiled stats only say you’re the #62 offense in the country, but you’ve actually compiled these results against some of the toughest teams in college football, and you’ve done it with the game still in doubt in many cases”. Thus, it gives a positive correction that still doesn’t change our stature within the SEC that much. Same for the defense.

We’re a middle of the pack SEC offense under any judgment criteria. That may be good enough for some, not good enough for others. But outside of 2014, that’s been the ceiling for MSU offensive football for 125 years.

 

[The Cooterpoot]

I think people are saying this "ranking" falls in the "no **** sherlock" category but KY is better than us, and has proven it.

 

[Perd Hapley]

I think people are saying this "ranking" falls in the "no **** sherlock" category but KY is better than us, and has proven it.

That’s terrible logic. I guess that also means Liberty should be ranked above Arkansas, App State should be ranked above A&M, and Missouri should be ranked ahead of South Carolina.

And I’d also greatly dispute that it’s a “no **** Sherlock” statement to say we’re the #16 football team in the country…..especially with all those on this board ready to jump off a cliff.

 

[Grover777]

I’m a little unsure where you think the “garbage” is.

If your take is that our offense is much worse than the F+ reflects, consider that our offensive F+ ranking of #34 is good for 8th in the SEC. Our raw numbers of yards per game is currently….that’s right….8th in the SEC. Our scoring offense is actually a little better….6th in the SEC. Guess who is dead last in both by a country mile? Kentucky.

All the F+ is saying is “Hey MSU, raw compiled stats only say you’re the #62 offense in the country, but you’ve actually compiled these results against some of the toughest teams in college football, and you’ve done it with the game still in doubt in many cases”. Thus, it gives a positive correction that still doesn’t change our stature within the SEC that much. Same for the defense.

We’re a middle of the pack SEC offense under any judgment criteria. That may be good enough for some, not good enough for others. But outside of 2014, that’s been the ceiling for MSU offensive football for 125 years.

This is correct, I looked at the sec rankings of key offensive stats and we are right in the middle of the sec.

one stat I would have liked to have seen that wasn’t listed was time of possession