For those projecting 7-8 wins this year, how much does Rogers affect this?

[Seinfeld]

Personally, I’m in the 7 win camp with a possible 8th coming in a bowl game, and I’ve been asking myself why I’m still so skeptical. Is it Leach? The schedule? Overall firepower within the SEC?

Normally with 17 returning starters or at least I think the number’s around there + a 3rd year starting QB, that’s a recipe for a very bullish outlook. However, I’m wondering if part of my problem is that I’m still just not 100% sold on Rogers being able to conquer the upper echelon of the SEC. Is QB a factor for the rest of y’all?

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I think part of it is due to the state of being a State fan.

The other part is that in Leach's two years here, both have been roller coaster years. This may be due to the nature of Leach or his system, but it doesn't "feel" like a steady gradual improvement as a better team, results on field Win-Loss wise.

 

[ronpolk]

It’s the schedule for me. I do think the team will be pretty and I think rogers will be fine. But the schedule is brutal. We have a 5 game stretch in october/November that is just brutal. And LSU is a game I like our matchup in but how often have we won in Baton Rouge.

 

[Seinfeld]

That’s my #1 concern as well. I mean, let’s go ahead and cross UGA and Bama off, and then you’ve got your one game that Leach shouldn’t lose that’s probably somewhere in that Memphis, Zona, Auburn group. So to get to 8 wins after considering that, it means that we’ve got to somehow find a way to go 4-1 in the Ark, LSU, A&M, KY, OM group, and I think that’s asking for a lot.

To get to 8 wins, Leach is either going to have to avoid his trademark down game entirely this season or else we’re going to have to have a hell of a stretch against the Tier 2 group of SEC fans. Could it happen, sure, but am I gonna predict it right now? No

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Sometimes I'll subtract a win from a prediction and attribute it to maroon colored glasses...

 

[Hot Rock]

Personally, I’m in the 7 win camp with a possible 8th coming in a bowl game, and I’ve been asking myself why I’m still so skeptical. Is it Leach? The schedule? Overall firepower within the SEC?

Normally with 17 returning starters or at least I think the number’s around there + a 3rd year starting QB, that’s a recipe for a very bullish outlook. However, I’m wondering if part of my problem is that I’m still just not 100% sold on Rogers being able to conquer the upper echelon of the SEC. Is QB a factor for the rest of y’all?

Its the way the year ended last year. Another Ole Miss loss and a lackluster bowl game. Ole Miss was a really good team last year and State had tons of guys out of the bowl game. Some preparing for draft and others with Covid.

Last year State probably has two more wins and maybe even 3 more wins with a FG kicker and that one horrible call vs Memphis. That gets a better bowl and everyone is feeling a little more upbeat.

 

[johnson86-1]

Not really to do with Rogers. I'm not sure how many QBs could execute this offense while not being able to trust their OTs. Rogers showed last year he can be damn near perfect when he is on, and he showed that when he is off, it derails us. I just expect a lot of off games from Rogers since we're probably going to be playing with two marginal OTs.

 

[patdog]

People are very much underestimating the schedule. It's brutal. I saw one publication that ranks us #30 in the country. If you go by their rankings, we'll go 5-7 this fall. Thank goodness Arizona sucks so bad, so we at least don't have a really tough OOC game.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

It’s the schedule for me. I do think the team will be pretty and I think rogers will be fine. But the schedule is brutal. We have a 5 game stretch in october/November that is just brutal. And LSU is a game I like our matchup in but how often have we won in Baton Rouge.

100% of the time under Leach

 

[kired]

Combine this with losing a top 10 draft pick at LT and by far our #1 WR... it's hard to be more upbeat. But I'm hoping we're pleasantly surprised.

QB isn't really a factor for me. I'm more concerned with the rest of our offense.

 

[MSUDC11]

I like Rogers a lot but we will sink or swim offensively based on our OL play. Which has been the case for both of the last two years.

Not having Cross could potentially be what keeps this team from being better then last year. On the flip side, we can’t be any worse at RT than we were last year, and if we just get decent play at LT then we may have a really good offense.

I’m not worried about replacing WR’s in this offense. And I tend to think Walley has a big year after just having an OK one last year.

 

[047Dog]

Not just Rogers but the offense as a whole. The offense in the Memphis and Nc State games were putrid. The LSU game was pathetic for 3 and a half quarters. Things got humming in the middle of the season and we lose the heartbreaker to Arkansas and then follow it up with pathetic performances against OM and TT.

I think the scary prospect is that if Will doesn’t throw for 300-350 at MINIMUM we don’t move the ball and don’t win ballgames. Even for a 3rd year player, that’s a tall task to ask for that consistency for 12+ weeks. Especially when a “down” or even bad team like Auburn has the capability of running a top 10 defense out there.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Personally, I’m in the 7 win camp with a possible 8th coming in a bowl game, and I’ve been asking myself why I’m still so skeptical. Is it Leach? The schedule? Overall firepower within the SEC?

Normally with 17 returning starters or at least I think the number’s around there + a 3rd year starting QB, that’s a recipe for a very bullish outlook. However, I’m wondering if part of my problem is that I’m still just not 100% sold on Rogers being able to conquer the upper echelon of the SEC. Is QB a factor for the rest of y’all?

I think we struggle to win 6. We have a lot of people coming back BUT.....1) we lost BOTH tackles on offense and one of those was a 1st rounder 2) we lost our best receiver 3) I'm not sure a lot coming back off last year's defense is necessarily a good thing. Hopefully I'm wrong

 

[paindonthurt]

You feel skeptical at 7/8 wins?

Man we’ve come a long way!

 

[ronpolk]

100% of the time under Leach

True! Let’s hope it stays that way

 

[Go Budaw]

Personally, I’m in the 7 win camp with a possible 8th coming in a bowl game, and I’ve been asking myself why I’m still so skeptical. Is it Leach? The schedule? Overall firepower within the SEC?

Normally with 17 returning starters or at least I think the number’s around there + a 3rd year starting QB, that’s a recipe for a very bullish outlook. However, I’m wondering if part of my problem is that I’m still just not 100% sold on Rogers being able to conquer the upper echelon of the SEC. Is QB a factor for the rest of y’all?

I’d say you’re probably skeptical for 3 reasons:

1) It’s been almost a half-decade since our last 8 win season, and even that was considered an underachieving year.

2) The schedule

3) Egg Bowl losing streak

We will get pounded by 3+ TD’s each against Bama and UGA. We’ll probably be Egg Bowl underdogs, but who knows how that will go. Beyond that, they are all winnable. Egg Bowl, Kentucky / LSU on the road and Arkansas / A&M at home are the 5 swing games. Get 3 of those 5, and we’ll win 8.

 

[mcdawg22]

There are 2 position groups that I think you are most exposed when one player isn’t great. OL and DB. Our protection had issues at times last year sometimes when the D was rushing four so losing a 1st round LT concerns me. We weren’t great against the pass last year either so losing a good CB concerns me as well. Of course both situations have nuance. We passed more than anyone in the country so you’d expect to give up a few sacks, and we had problems getting pressure and our pass rush should be better this year. As far as the schedule Georgia and Memphis seem like a push to me. We’ll pick up a game and drop a game. I think we’ll win all four non-con. We went 3-1 against KY, Aub, Ark, and AM. I think we go 2-2 against that group this year. So that leaves LSU and Bama. I think those are losses. Now Ole Miss. If the TCU RB gets hurt I think they are dead in the water. Their RB room minus him doesn’t look great and no QB on staff has Corral’s running ability. So if he is banged up we win, if not I think they win. That puts me at 6 wins going into the Egg Bowl.

 

[GloryDawg]

All four of Out of Conference gams they should win.

1.KY is the same team we played last year and beat. They had a weak schedule that made them look good.
2.GA lost that defense but they will beat us.
3.Ole Miss lost the one guy that made them good plus 14 other starters. I don't want to hear Portal. Those guys were there for a reason. Entire team of them. LA Tech tried that last season. State shot themself in the foot way too many times in that game.
4. Arkansas was a two man team last season. They lost one of them. As far as I am concern we beat them. The Ref's won that game for Arkansas.
5. LSU is the same team minus a few of the better players. We shot our selves in the foot in that game.
6. Auburn will be the same team with the same over rated coach. Hell they just gave a pay raise to the coach who let state come back from a 20 plus point.
7. Bama will win.
8. A&M has the same ****** coach. We seem to beat them all the time.

I can see 7 to 9 wins.

 

[notoriousD_O_G]

Against Memphis we got an INT to start the second half then started the drive at their 14 yard line and couldn't score. A TD would have put us up 24-7.

In the Egg Bowl we had 3 drives that ended inside their 35 that resulted in 0 points (4 if you count the end of the game).

Against LSU we fumbled at their 35, threw an INT at their 11, kicked a FG when we had 3rd and goal from the 2, and missed a FG on a drive that had 1st and 10 from the 20.

Against Arkansas one of the missed FGs was on a drive that had 1st and goal from the 7 and we threw a pick in their territory.

If we want to win 7 or 8 we have to be able to finish drives with TDs. Our FG kicking was horrible but if our offense does it's job and gets in the end zone when we get deep in their territory we can leave the kickers on the sideline.

 

[VegasDawg13]

It’s the schedule for me.

If the lines were set today, I think we'd only be favored in one conference game (Auburn at home)

 

[hogfan14]

4. Arkansas was a two man team last season. They lost one of them.

Eh Arkansas led the SEC in rushing last season and has nearly the entire OL back plus 3 of the top 4 rushers.

WR is definitely a question mark with Burks gone though.

 

[MSUDC11]

I think we struggle to win 6. We have a lot of people coming back BUT.....1) we lost BOTH tackles on offense and one of those was a 1st rounder 2) we lost our best receiver 3) I'm not sure a lot coming back off last year's defense is necessarily a good thing. Hopefully I'm wrong

We were in the Top 30 in total defense last year. And WR production has never really been an issue for Leach. It’s not like Polk was a proven commodity going into last year or that Walley was one going into 2020. The concerns about the offensive tackles are very valid, though.

 

[onewoof]

100% of the time under Leach

People on this board need to go back and take a stats class. Leach doesn't lose in Baton Rouge. Look it up people.

 

[GloryDawg]

Eh Arkansas led the SEC in rushing last season and has nearly the entire OL back plus 3 of the top 4 rushers.

WR is definitely a question mark with Burks gone though.

they still needed a bad call by the ref at home to win.

 

[msudawg1200]

People are very much underestimating the schedule. It's brutal. I saw one publication that ranks us #30 in the country. If you go by their rankings, we'll go 5-7 this fall. Thank goodness Arizona sucks so bad, so we at least don't have a really tough OOC game.

Phil Steele has us #20 in his Power Poll. He has Ole Miss #26. However, in his Preseason Top 40 we are unranked, while Ole Miss is #30. The difference? The Power Poll is based on pure talent. The Top 40 is based on what your record will be. This is based on schedule, site of games, etc. Our schedule is brutal. We would easily go 9-3 with OM's schedule. We'll do good to hit 6-6 with our schedule. Sucks, but it is what it is.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

Against Memphis we got an INT to start the second half then started the drive at their 14 yard line and couldn't score. A TD would have put us up 24-7.

In the Egg Bowl we had 3 drives that ended inside their 35 that resulted in 0 points (4 if you count the end of the game).

Against LSU we fumbled at their 35, threw an INT at their 11, kicked a FG when we had 3rd and goal from the 2, and missed a FG on a drive that had 1st and 10 from the 20.

Against Arkansas one of the missed FGs was on a drive that had 1st and goal from the 7 and we threw a pick in their territory.

If we want to win 7 or 8 we have to be able to finish drives with TDs. Our FG kicking was horrible but if our offense does it's job and gets in the end zone when we get deep in their territory we can leave the kickers on the sideline.

Will is going to set records, but where he has to improve for us to win 8 games is making big plays/not giving up big plays in crucial situations. A metric needs to be added to QBs to measure big plays.

 

[Xenomorph]

Who would be our easy 9 wins on the sharks’ schedule?

 

[mcdawg22]

Who would be our easy 9 wins on the sharks’ schedule?

I guess Vandy, KY at home, and we’d beat ourselves? Not sure how that looks on the W/L record though**

 

[msudawg1200]

Who would be our easy 9 wins on the sharks’ schedule?

Well, I'd feel pretty good that we could start 7-0 with their schedule. I'd hope we could easily win the first four vs. Troy, Central Ark, at GA Tech, and Tulsa. I'd like to think we could then beat Kentucky at home, Vandy on the road, and Auburn at home. That leaves 5 games to win 2 out of at LSU and A&M, Bama at home, at Arky, and then we'd have OM at home. I think we'd win at least 2 of those last 5 to get to 9-3.

 

[Palos verdes]

Personally, I’m in the 7 win camp with a possible 8th coming in a bowl game, and I’ve been asking myself why I’m still so skeptical. Is it Leach? The schedule? Overall firepower within the SEC?

Normally with 17 returning starters or at least I think the number’s around there + a 3rd year starting QB, that’s a recipe for a very bullish outlook. However, I’m wondering if part of my problem is that I’m still just not 100% sold on Rogers being able to conquer the upper echelon of the SEC. Is QB a factor for the rest of y’all?

It is for me. That and a thing with Leach I'd rather not get into.

 

[travis.sixpack]

Worst fans in America.

 

[Joe Schmedlap]

Not really to do with Rogers. I'm not sure how many QBs could execute this offense while not being able to trust their OTs. Rogers showed last year he can be damn near perfect when he is on, and he showed that when he is off, it derails us. I just expect a lot of off games from Rogers since we're probably going to be playing with two marginal OTs.

this all day, everyday - twice on Saturdays

 

[ChinaDogSunflower]

#2 looked real good in some games in the second half of the season. He'll never have elite arm strength but he doesn't have to in this offense. It certainly can make the offense MUCH better, but from what I saw last season, it is not a necessity.

The offense revolves around the qb, so I'd rather have an experienced decision maker over a green cannon.

We don't exactly have a qb on roster w much game experience beyond Rogers. I'd say he is pretty integral to the success of the offense at this point.

Can we beat pretty much any team that isn't Bama/UGA? Absolutely. In a wild year, that can be enough to get to Atlanta. We'll see how this season plays out.

I say all that to say, QB is definitely one of the major factors in thinking we're a 6-8 win team. We also lost to Memphis last year and almost lost to LA Tech. We also won a couple games we weren't supposed to, which factors into the reluctant hope that we can put a full season together.

It's also part of the gimmick offense that Leach brings. I'd say it was a successful first year (COVID year doesn't count bc there was no off-season), but can it have sustained success in the SEC? Idk but I don't see why not, as long as you've got people making the right reads and catching balls.

I'm reluctantly hopeful. This team can win 10 games. They can also win 6. Biggest question is obviously LT and WR replacing production from Polk last year (Heath a little bit too).