Buying: South Carolina deserves a Playoff berth
South Carolina picked up a huge road win over Clemson on Saturday to finish a 9-3 regular season.The Gamecocks enter conference championship weekend firmly on the College Football Playoff bubble. Their CFP résumé has one significant negative: The Gamecocks have losses to 2 other teams, Alabama and Ole Miss, that also are on the bubble.
And while that’s certainly worth considering, I think South Carolina has enough of an argument to overcome that issue.
For one thing, the Gamecocks’ offense has been worlds better than it was early in the season. The Gamecocks averaged 7.3 yards per play during November, which would have been No. 2 nationally if extrapolated over the full season. Compare that to the 4.42 yards per play that South Carolina averaged in October and 5.51 in August/September. That’s legitimate growth.
South Carolina’s résumé is also pretty good despite having 3 regular-season losses. All 3 of South Carolina’s losses are to good teams, which stands in stark contrast to that of Alabama’s and Ole Miss’. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma — the Gamecocks beat both by 3+ touchdowns. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky, which South Carolina crushed in Lexington.
The Gamecocks also have ranked wins over Clemson and Missouri (and over Texas A&M, who may still be in the committee’s top 25 this week). It’s also worth noting that star quarterback LaNorris Sellers was injured in South Carolina’s narrow loss to LSU.
Perhaps most important, South Carolina has closed out the 2024 season on a much stronger note than any other SEC program. The Gamecocks have a point differential of +96 during the month of November, with 4 consecutive wins over AP Top 25 teams. Tennessee (+84) is the only other SEC team above +70. South Carolina is the hottest team in the SEC entering the postseason and it deserves a chance to make a deep Playoff run.
Given that South Carolina was only 1 spot behind Ole Miss and 2 spots behind Alabama before it beat No. 12 Clemson on the road this week, I do think there’s a pretty good chance the Gamecocks leap both in Tuesday night’s Playoff rankings. How the ACC Championship Game shakes out could certainly have an impact on the final Playoff picture, but I think South Carolina has a better chance of reaching the Playoff than most are giving it credit for.
Actionable bet to consider: South Carolina to make the College Football Playoff (+540 on FanDuel)
10 CFB ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 14
College football's regular season is in the books, so let's check in on some of the popular narratives emerging after Week 14.
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