Gonzaga will be hard to beat

aferrelli

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One source is calling Gonzaga an almost 40% chance to win the tournament. That’s a huge favorite when nobody else has more than an 8% chance of winning. The team shoots extremely well; 52+% from the field for the year. Every player on the team, going 9-10 deep, can shoot the 3 point shot with relatively good accuracy. Rasir is a starter and averaging 11+ points per game. This team looks extremely balanced; they have great stats. Rasir Bolton lives on.
 

LionJim

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One source is calling Gonzaga an almost 40% chance to win the tournament. That’s a huge favorite when nobody else has more than an 8% chance of winning. The team shoots extremely well; 52+% from the field for the year. Every player on the team, going 9-10 deep, can shoot the 3 point shot with relatively good accuracy. Rasir is a starter and averaging 11+ points per game. This team looks extremely balanced; they have great stats. Rasir Bolton lives on.
Which source?
 

PrtLng Lion

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Agree they're a tough out, but I thought this last year then Baylor outworked them in the title game. Long athletic teams seem to be tough matchups for the Zags.
 
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LionJim

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LionJim

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BobPSU92

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Damn impressive what Few has built at Gonzaga. The program wasn’t a blue blood when he got there. The school isn’t a big name academically. Spokane isn’t exactly a destination. Great coach obviously, and I take it he’s a player’s coach.
 

GregPickel

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T-Rank has Houston as the second-most-likely champion, at 9.2%.
Yeah, that certainly caught my eye. Gonzaga is good, and maybe the numbers are all right, but whenever there is a team that is supposed to dominate all the way to a title, I try and find a different way to go.

Texas Tech has my eye.
 

aferrelli

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Which source?
Which source?
Can’t say. Unfortunately, I went through my search history from yesterday, and couldn’t find the link. The actual percent was something like 39.4 or 39.7; that’s why I said ALMOST 40% chance for Gonzaga taking it all. I know they’ve done well for a long time in basketball, but they’re not even from a Power 5 Conference. Their players do have some amazing stats though; and it’s unbelievable for a team to shoot 52+% from the field for the year.
 
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aferrelli

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T-Rank has the Zags at 27 percent to win it all: https://barttorvik.com/tourneytime.php?&conlimit=All&sort=7

Action Network lists 29 percent to win it all: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab...-four-odds-ncaa-tournament-expert-projections

I've not seen a 40 percent chance of winning it all. Have seen a 40 percent chance of them making the final, though.
I may be wrong; and maybe the 40% chance was to make the final four? That seems more probable. Sorry, I wasn’t more diligent in my post. I was hurrying, to finish, before I went out yesterday.
 

GregPickel

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I may be wrong; and maybe the 40% chance was to make the final four? That seems more probable. Sorry, I wasn’t more diligent in my post. I was hurrying, to finish, before I went out yesterday.
That's ok! That 40 percent chance was to make the final.
 

LionJim

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I may be wrong; and maybe the 40% chance was to make the final four? That seems more probable. Sorry, I wasn’t more diligent in my post. I was hurrying, to finish, before I went out yesterday.
Nbd. Nobody’s going to blame you if Gonzaga doesn’t win it all. And if they do win it all, you’ll look like a genius. (Not that looking like a genius on this board is all that difficult an accomplishment.)
 
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I'd take the chances of either Duke/Texas Tech coming out of the West over Gonzaga.

A very good team, yes, but they tend to dominate the regular season playing a very weak schedule. They then seem to struggle come tournament time versus teams that can punch them in the mouth right back. (albeit the last couple of years in the Final Four)

Many may forget, but Gonzaga lost to Duke earlier in the season on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Close game, something like a 5-point loss. but Duke has an NBA front court that will not get bullied by Holmgren/Timme.

For the #1 overall seed, I thought the Zags got quite the difficult road to the Final Four. Duke and Texas Tech seem like the best #2 and #3 seeds IMO.
 

CF Lion

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I'd take the chances of either Duke/Texas Tech coming out of the West over Gonzaga.

A very good team, yes, but they tend to dominate the regular season playing a very weak schedule. They then seem to struggle come tournament time versus teams that can punch them in the mouth right back. (albeit the last couple of years in the Final Four)

Many may forget, but Gonzaga lost to Duke earlier in the season on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Close game, something like a 5-point loss. but Duke has an NBA front court that will not get bullied by Holmgren/Timme.

For the #1 overall seed, I thought the Zags got quite the difficult road to the Final Four. Duke and Texas Tech seem like the best #2 and #3 seeds IMO.
I have TT in my bracket.
 

aferrelli

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Oct 6, 2021
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I'd take the chances of either Duke/Texas Tech coming out of the West over Gonzaga.

A very good team, yes, but they tend to dominate the regular season playing a very weak schedule. They then seem to struggle come tournament time versus teams that can punch them in the mouth right back. (albeit the last couple of years in the Final Four)

Many may forget, but Gonzaga lost to Duke earlier in the season on a neutral court in Las Vegas. Close game, something like a 5-point loss. but Duke has an NBA front court that will not get bullied by Holmgren/Timme.

For the #1 overall seed, I thought the Zags got quite the difficult road to the Final Four. Duke and Texas Tech seem like the best #2 and #3 seeds IMO.
I firmly believe the high percentage(s)for Gonzaga, this year, are attributed to some heavy number crunching. The team, really has some good, important high stats; but this is what happens when your predictions are solely quantified by mathematics. There are many intangibles that are equally important; but aren’t as easy to quantify; i.e. desire, luck, referees, coaching, etc. If I were betting on the NCAAs, I’d probably stay away from Gonzaga, the favorite. How much would you win with them? I’ve seen very little of Gonzaga this year. I just know they have great stats; but I'm unsure of Gonzaga being the best.
 

LionJim

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After reading this thread I may bite the bullet and fill out a bracket, first time in a decade or so. I resist doing this because it’s such an exercise in futility for me, and because I hate rooting for certain teams. I don’t want to be sorry that Michigan loses.
 

Nothing Special

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Agree that they will be difficult to beat. However, even the favorites have potentially fatal flaws this year. With Gonzaga, it's the guard play. Most specifically, Andrew Nembhard. If he plays well, they will be a very tough out. If he doesn't, ...
 
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LionJim

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After reading this thread I may bite the bullet and fill out a bracket, first time in a decade or so. I resist doing this because it’s such an exercise in futility for me, and because I hate rooting for certain teams. I don’t want to be sorry that Michigan loses.
I picked Colorado State to beat Michigan. It's the first game tomorrow.
 
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ApexLion

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Baylor, Providence, Houston, Tennessee, Auburn, and Arizona can all go toe to toe with the Zags. I would not count out Baylor and Auburn in particular.
 
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Phoenix lion

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Damn impressive what Few has built at Gonzaga. The program wasn’t a blue blood when he got there. The school isn’t a big name academically. Spokane isn’t exactly a destination. Great coach obviously, and I take it he’s a player’s coach.
Well the school where I coached and son played sent Suggs (now in NBA) and Holmgren this year. They both loved the coaching staff and atmosphere plus the school was similar to their high school. A small private school. Both were highly recruited by Minnesota and Kansas. They just liked the smaller campus and the players they met on their visits.
 
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